Trade ideas
Crude Oil: Support zone is seen around  54-57Crude oil continues to refresh its low. As mentioned earlier, once the 61.3 watershed level is broken, the downward space will open up. Currently, the support zone is around 54-57, which is a suitable level to consider establishing long positions. For short-term trades, go short on a rebound after a new low is made—focus on short entries at 58.60 and add to short positions at 59.20.
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
GoingUp: WestTexasCrudeCrude has been anything but friendly however it has also been adamant on growing no matter the cost.
Crude Oil has aggressively passed every reason to decrease AND is still refusing to go further down. That is also the case with Crude Oil Bulls. They have substantial reasons to go long but are meet at an impasse because the economy has no report on direction. The information they do have isn’t promising and the US Government shutdown isn’t helping the matter of uncertainty either. 
I mean it’s a roller coaster of emotions BUT you don’t play with your feelings you use your head and the logic is if it meets the criteria it will stand the test and this asset is signaling Long again.
Im relying on my usual supportive reasoning and insight from world news to assess this trade but with sentiment so finicky it’s never that cut and dry.
Regardless of what you gotta pay to play and since the market wants to take risks you might as well take risks too. 
Just remember the market has nothing to lose but you do so be mindful how much play money you want to spend.
Now have a Prosperous Trade and God Bless
USOIL LONG FROM SUPPORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 58.07
Target Level: 63.04
Stop Loss: 54.76
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USOIL Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) 
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 58.309.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 54.034 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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us, oil HI GUYS, 
         UPDATE ON US OIL DETAIL ON PRICE PATTERNS AND SESSION HOURS
we made entries around area of interest buys, however i didn't give the detail of how we were going to pull through.
am running a few negatives on my account as per yesterdays entries however with this detail am sure will shall pull through. 
I expect a reaction in London session .
(us oil) is not as heavy pair so lets see what happens.
Bearish WTI ideaAfter applying Fib Retracement and extensions from monthly to 4h time frame, The price will tap 57.83 and if closes below that then the next Magnet support is at 56.82 and will be tapped. RSI is Reaching towards oversold zone but it can stay under pressure for a longer period. 
Patience is highly recommended before any entry. 
USOIL Pressured by Trade Tensions and Oversupply Concerns
Fundamental approach:
- USOIL prices declined this week, pressured by renewed US-China trade tensions and persistent concerns about oversupply.
- USOIL fell following President Trump's threat of additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, starting 1 Nov, which reignited fears of reduced global energy demand from the world's largest consumers.
- In addition, easing Middle East tensions removed risk premiums, capping gains. OPEC+ is continuing its production increases, with the group adding 137k bpd in Nov. 
- US crude inventories also rose by 3.7 mln barrels in early Oct, exceeding analyst expectations and reinforcing concerns about a supply glut.
- Prices may face further downward pressure as global inventory builds are expected to average 2.6 mln barrels per day through 4Q. However, any progress in US-China trade negotiations or unexpected supply disruptions from Eastern Europe could provide upside support.
Technical approach:
- USOIL strongly declined after retesting EMA21. The price created lower swings, indicating bearish momentum persists. 
- If USOIL remains below the resistance at 60.30, the price may continue to decline toward the following support at 55.50.
- On the contrary, closing above 60.30 may prompt a further correction to retest the following resistance at 62.00.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 60.56
1st Support: 57.68
1st Resistance: 62.10
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TLDR: SELL Gold, BUY OilGold/oil ratio seems to be evolving in a band. We've had RSI divergences every time we touched the band predicting trend reversal. RSI Divergence playing out right now as we touch the seemingly relevant support. 
-  FX_IDC:USDWTI  /  FRED:WM2NS  is at an all time low support level (1998, 2016, 2020)
-  TVC:GOLD  /  FRED:WM2NS  at an all time High (1983, oct 2011)
Gold/Oil ratio looks like a Big BUY to me. Enjoy \o/.
WTI (Crude Oil) — Bullish Bat in ProgressOANDA:WTICOUSD  
A  bullish Bat pattern  is currently forming, with a potential completion near $57.86 — the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior leg.
If the pattern confirms, it could trigger a bullish move toward $65.70, aligning with the 38.2% retracement level.
Price action around $57–58 will be key — watch for reversal confirmation, as momentum divergence before validating long positions.
Crude oil: Bearish sentiment is expectedCrude oil finally broke below the strong support level of 61 in the late trading session last week. Once this level is breached, it opens up new downside room. Crude oil remains bearish this week; if there is a rebound, we can continue to take short positions, with minor resistance around the 61.30 level.
Sell 60.50  TP 59.00 - 57.00  SL 61.3
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
 WTI Crude Oil – Elliott Wave Analysis🛢️  WTI Crude Oil – Elliott Wave Analysis 
Wave Structure · Smart Money · Fib Confluence · Price Action
🔎  Market Context & Overview 
 WTI Crude Oil  remains one of the most critical and closely watched commodities in the global market. After decades of dramatic price swings driven by geopolitical events, supply shocks, and evolving demand patterns, the market now appears poised at a pivotal juncture. Combining  Elliott Wave theory ,  Smart Money Concepts ,  Fibonacci retracements & extensions , and  price action  analysis with fundamental macro insights reveals a compelling narrative: Crude is concluding a prolonged corrective phase and preparing for a significant breakout. This analysis breaks down each wave, highlighting key technical and fundamental factors shaping the future trajectory of oil prices.
🔹  Wave 1 – Early Impulse (1970s–1985) 
📉  Technicals:  Formed the foundational uptrend post-oil embargo.
🧠  SMC:  Accumulation following global inflation shock.
📊  Fib:  Initial rally; shallow extension, not impulsive in character.
🌍  Macro:  Oil embargo, inflation, and a restructuring of global energy markets gave birth to this initial move.
🔹  Wave 2 – Complex Correction (1985–1999) 
🔁  Technicals:  Multi-decade  W-X-Y  corrective pattern, fully retracing Wave 1.
🧠  SMC:  Smart Money accumulation masked by long-term bearish structure.
📊  Fib : Deep correction toward 78.6%, classic for Wave 2.
🌐  Macro:  OPEC instability, Gulf War, rising non-OPEC supply, and suppressed demand through globalization.
🔹  Wave 3 – Supercycle Rally (1999–2008) 
🚀  Technicals:  Powerful impulsive rally, achieving  1.618 Fib extension  of Wave 1.
🧠  SMC:  Clear  Break of Structure (BoS)  in early 2000s; institutions led the markup.
📊  Fib:  Ideal third-wave behavior — extended and directional.
📈  Macro:  China-led supercycle, supply bottlenecks, geopolitical conflict, and a commodities renaissance pushed oil to  $147.27. 
🔹  Wave 4 – Still In Progress (2008–2026 est.) 
🔄  Technicals:  Long, complex  W-X-Y-X-Z  or potential triangle; entering final  E-leg  now.
🧠  SMC:  Liquidity grabs during COVID (2020) and 2022–24 highs; Smart Money sweeping both ends.
📊  Fib:  Final leg projected to terminate near  0.5 retracement of Wave 3 (~$47.55). 
🔍  Price Action:  Distribution in 2011–14, liquidation in 2020, false rallies, and compression since 2022.
🧨  Macro:  GFC aftermath, shale oversupply, COVID demand crash, ESG underinvestment. Currently driven by energy policy chaos and geopolitical rebalancing.
⏳  Wave 4 is near completion , with the final move expected to tag the 0.5 retracement before reversal.
🔹  Wave 5 – Upcoming Macro Breakout (2026–2032 est.) 
⚡  Technicals:  Expected impulsive breakout wave toward price discovery.
🧠  SMC:  Anticipate Break of Structure (BoS) above $147 for confirmation of markup phase.
📊  Fib:  Target zone between previous high ($147) and  2.618 extension (~$366.58). 
🔥  Macro:  Long-term underinvestment, peak cheap oil, geopolitical tension (Russia, Middle East), energy transition bottlenecks. Inflation & policy shifts will add fuel.
📍 This is the final leg of the cycle and could mirror or even exceed the explosiveness of Wave 3 due to multi-decade supply-demand imbalances.
✅  Final Summary 
 Crude Oil  is completing its  Wave 4 correctio n, expected to bottom around  $47.55  — the  0.5  retracement of  Wave 3 . The corrective structure is nearly exhausted, showing signs of  Smart Money accumulation  and multi-leg exhaustion. Once  Wave 4  completes, a powerful  Wave 5  is expected to begin, targeting  $195–$366 , driven by macro energy scarcity, inflation, and long-term capital flow back into commodities.
This is a  strategic inflection zone  — where technical compression meets macro ignition.
"Master the waves, follow the smart money, and let Fibonacci guide your path to consistent trading success." —  FIBCOS 
#WTICrudeOil #ElliottWave #Fibonacci #SmartMoneyConcepts #WaveTheory #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #OilTrading #CommodityAnalysis #MarketCycles #PriceAction
USOIL: Check lower levels after breaking out of the rangeThis is my previous analysis — feel free to take a look for reference.
  
 OIL PRICE OUTLOOK  
(Week of Oct 06 - 10, 2025)
 1.	Institutional Forecast Updates 
●	IEA (Sep 15, 2025): 	
 
 WTI targets $64.2/bbl for 2025 and $47.8/bbl for 2026
 Brent targets $68/bbl for 2025 and $51/bbl for 2026
●	Goldman Sach (Jul 14, 2025):
 WTI targets $63/bbl for H2 2025 and $52/bbl for 2026
 Brent targets $64/bbl for H2 2025 and $56/bbl for 2026
●	J.P. Morgan (May 16, 2025):
 WTI targets $63/bbl for H2 2025 and $52/bbl for 2026
 Brent targets $64/bbl for H2 2025 and $56/bbl for 2026
 
 www.rigzone.com 
 www.reuters.com www.jpmorgan.com 
 2.	 Key Drivers & Risks 
🔹	 Updates on Supply–Demand and Geopolitical News 
 OPEC+ announced a milder-than-expected production increase of around 137 kb/d for November, leaving the oversupply outlook through 2026 largely unchanged.
 Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea / Gulf of Aden have flared up again.
 U.S. inventories and weekly data: API estimated a draw of 3.7 mb (Sep 26), while recent EIA reports have shown mixed, inconsistent trends.
 Market consensus: Reuters’ latest survey keeps the Brent forecast at ~$67.6/bbl for 2025, unchanged from last month, with expectations for lower prices around $60 in 2025 and further weakness into 2026.
🔹  Watchlist for Next Week 
 Official details on OPEC+’s November production implementation
 API / EIA weekly U.S. oil data
 Maritime security developments
 Any notable demand-side signals
🔹	 Overall View 
 Governments appear to favor keeping oil prices lower to support economic growth, though current levels are near or below breakeven for many producers.
 Oil prices are expected to gradually decline within a relatively narrow range of $70–$50, while potential supply–demand shocks remain key factors to monitor for any sharp volatility.
 
 3.	Technical Analysis 
  
* Trend: assessed using at least three trend indicators, with market structure as the primary guide.
** Weak or Reversal Signals: Assessed based on one of our criteria for trend reversal signals.
*** Support/Resistance: Selected from multiple factors – static (Swing High, Swing Low, etc.), dynamic (EMA, MA, etc.), psychological (Fibonacci, RSI, etc.) – and determined based on the trader’s discretion.
**** Our advice takes into account all factors, including both fundamental and technical analysis. It is not intended as a profit target. We hope it can serve as a reference to help you trade more effectively. This advice is for informational purposes only and we assume no responsibility for any trading results based on it.
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George Vann @ ZuperView
XTI/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Falls Below $60XTI/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Falls Below $60 
Friday’s comments from President Trump about the potential introduction of 100% tariffs on trade with China pushed WTI crude oil below the $60 level for the first time in four months. The bearish sentiment stemmed from fears of a global economic slowdown amid escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
The decline was further supported by news of peace efforts in the Middle East, which reduced the impact of geopolitical risk on oil prices.
As the XTI/USD chart shows, WTI is currently trading below $60. How might the situation unfold next?
  
 Technical Analysis of the XTI/USD Chart 
In the long-term view, oil price movements (following the flare-up in the Middle East in June) have formed a descending channel shown in red — notably, the current price has fallen below its lower boundary.
In the shorter term, we can observe an acceleration of the decline, emphasised by the purple trajectory lines.
These observations suggest that selling pressure remains dominant, while any recovery attempts are likely to meet resistance near:
→ the psychological level of $60;
→ the lower boundary of the red channel;
→ the purple median line.
Given that the White House is reportedly in favour of lower oil prices (as a means of stimulating the US economy and exerting pressure on geopolitical rivals), WTI crude could drift towards the year’s low around $55.
However, from the demand-side perspective, it cannot be ruled out that the oil market, known for its false breakouts above previous highs (A, B, C), may repeat a similar move above peak D — a pattern that, in Smart Money Concept terms, would represent a liquidity grab.
 This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Crude oil -DAILY- 13/10/2025Oil prices rebounded after President Trump suggested he was open to a trade deal with China, calming markets rattled by his recent announcement of 100% tariffs and China’s retaliatory port fees on U.S. ships. The softer tone sparked a short-term recovery as traders covered losses from last week’s heavy selloff. The move is likely temporary, with limited upside unless genuine progress is made in trade talks. Meanwhile, rising OPEC+ production and easing tensions in the Middle East are keeping supply pressures elevated and capping further gains in the oil market.
 On the technical side, crude oil price has declined quite extensively late last week and has , for the time being, found sufficient support on the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is trading just below the $60 price mark, which is also the psychological support of the round number, while at the same time, the moving averages are validating the overall bearish trend in the market. The Stochastic oscillator is still in the extreme oversold levels, but it has been in this area for quite some time, so the validity of the oscillator cannot be taken into consideration due to the prolonged period of oversold conditions. Even though the Bollinger Bands are quite expanded, there are no major signs of a reversal just yet; therefore, a sideways movement might be the most probable scenario in the upcoming sessions.
 Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness 
Start Trade on - Crude Oil  
📢 Side ways Range - 59.575 to 60.001-  Don't Trade'
📢 On 4 Hours Chart Market Breaks below- 59.583
expect MKT fall down - Target Level 1- 58.308
Target level 2 - 56.233
..........................................................
📢 If break above 60.005 can Take Buy Entry" Target Profit - 61.331
....................................................
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Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 58.884Colleagues, it appears that the downward movement is not over and I see several reasons to continue to look short. 
The higher order wave “C” is looking to complete the correction and I expect the start of the middle order wave “3” to see the low update and reach the support area at 58.884.
Fundamental context
Oil remains under pressure as supply increases and demand outlook weakens. OPEC+ decided to slightly raise output for November, while U.S. inventories keep growing. Crude lost about 8% last week, and EIA now expects lower prices by the end of the year — all of which supports the idea of a continued downside move within wave “3” toward the 58.884 support area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Usoil - Retracement to FVG Before Bullish ContinationMarket Structure & Key Levels
Resistance Zone: Price reacted from this supply area, showing short-term rejection after BOS (Break of Structure) to the upside.
FVG (Fair Value Gap): Price is expected to retrace into this imbalance zone for demand before resuming higher. Watch for bullish price action here.
Weak Low: If price breaks this low, the bullish scenario becomes invalid and deeper downside may follow.
Structure Highlights:
BOS (Break of Structure): Several BOS points confirm previous bearish trend and recent short-term bullish correction.
CHoCH (Change of Character): Marked at the base of reversal near FVG zone, indicating possible trend shift.
EMA Confluence: Price hovering around short EMAs, showing possible slowdown and setup for a pullback.
Trade Scenario
Expected Move:
Price could retrace to the FVG zone (imbalance fill) before a bounce.
From there, bullish momentum may resume toward the target zone above resistance.
Bullish Confirmation:
Look for price to tap into the FVG, form bullish structure (e.g., BOS, CHoCH), and engulfing patterns or lower-timeframe entries.
Target would be near recent highs or break above resistance at ~$59.90–60.00.
 Invalidation:
Break below the Weak Low would invalidate this bullish setup and open room for further downside.
WTI Crude Oil Short Setup: Former Support Acting as New ResistanHello TradingView Community,
This post outlines a potential short trade setup for WTI Light Crude Oil (XTIUSD) on the 15-minute timeframe.
Technical Analysis:
The chart highlights a key horizontal price level at approximately $59.83. This level previously served as a solid support base, holding the price up.
We have recently witnessed a decisive breakdown below this support, indicating a shift in momentum to the bearish side. The price is now pulling back to retest this broken structure from below. This is a classic "support-turned-resistance" scenario. The expectation is that this level will now act as a ceiling, rejecting the price and leading to a continuation of the downtrend.
Trade Setup:
The short position tool on the chart visualizes a potential trade plan based on this bearish outlook:
Entry: Approximately $59.83 (at the retest of the new resistance).
Stop Loss: $61.00 (placed above the resistance zone to invalidate the idea if the price reclaims the level).
Take Profit: $56.07 (targeting a new potential swing low).
This setup provides a structured plan with a clear risk-to-reward ratio for a potential move lower.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and discussion purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading commodities involves significant risk. Please conduct your own research and manage your risk appropriately before making any trading decisions.






















