Monday 6/24 and price still toying with 2320s-2330s, is it going to happen? Do we have enough time left? Did we just was several months chasing ghosts? I think we are about to find out: 1) in chart above, yellow is basecase 2) speed wise, this is only somewhat slower than draft 26-C 3) for now... 4) should we get the move for 2370 tonight 5) NONE OF THAT...
This is the last draft. 1) because slower than this and the trends devolve into sideways for months 2) from previous draft 26-B, I've eliminated all those variations 3) this is the last variation of this rally in this precise window 4) which is a slower version of blue route (originally DRAFT 25) 5) watch the bold support line 6) going down there NOW? 7) would...
From here on out, I really do not consider these adjustments a "separate draft". We are talking details of the same move. With that said, here's where we stand now: 1) orange is base case 2) and I know that it's slow now vs both yellow and blue routes 3) but trend engine has strong expectations this will pick up 4) and if the curve shifts again, it's more...
THE CALL - 360 points in 9 trading days. INTRO - After nailing "2150 BY 03/08" breakout in March, I started talking about this move even before we got to 2200. The deadline for the 2640-2720 high is July 5th. As stated in DRAFT 25, the "super-coiling" of trends is about to break and send price to to 2660 by by next Friday 07/05/2024. July 4th is Independence...
On Friday, we first eliminated DRAFT 24 (which is map for DRAFT 23). After that we used DRAFT 21 and eliminated both 21 & 22. The signal for 2640-2720 has been flashing for a month, with only 10 trading days to go ( but 9 minus July 4th), price is still coiling in setup mode. This coiling should (with caveat that this can explode ANY TIME NOW) in the...
FOR CHART ABOVE: 1) with new high 2371+, yellow route has 2310 floor 2) no new high (now favored 60/40) has 2295 floor 3) & won't fight this line again until late Monday 4) rest of this chart is current base case 5) zoom out to see 7/3 2680 target 6) meaning base case is 2310-2680 in 8 trading days 7) counting only from Sunday not Friday 2295 low 8) this chart is...
Replacement for DRAFT 23, no chart was available. 1) confirmed that rally is on 2) no more setting up 3) I didn't think we had anytime left either 4) but this works out so much better 5) w/o having to do proofs on whether or not a rally will fit 6) IT HAS BEGUN!
AND WE MISSED THE ENTRY! a) it was only possible to now today b) so I caught it as soon as I could c) otherwise GET ALL IN LONG!
SAME IDEA, NEW FLOOR. 1) the check down will take bit longer 2) and more staircase like 3) higher Sunday floor at 2320s 4) rest is the same 5) BUT 2-WAY VOL IS NOT OBVIOUS TO ME 6) this is not a move to day trade anyway 7) buy and hold for two weeks 8) not that hard
There's only move left. 1) I am not sure there is another high 2) and if there is, I'm not sure what that means if anything 3) bc of the "layers" this move created 4) it's not coming down fast like other times 5) it's going to be the entirety of the next 15-16 hours 6) buy the low 7) sell 7/5 at 2660 give or take 8) the end
So we DID NOT GET 55 HIGH but managed only 46. What now? 1) the timing does not change 2) thing needs to finish top AND BOTTOM before midnight in 18+ hours 3) but the "extra strength" I picked up DID NOT manifest 4) it is STILL UNRESOLVED 5) so should be expressed as A THIRD TOP in between the two previously discussed 6) the check down to 2295 should finish...
Pay attention, because I am not going to hold your hands. 1) my trend engine says 2355 in hours 2) 2377 by NY aftermarket close in 14 hours 3) 2295 by midnight, or London open if late 4) that means early entry is tonight near midnight 5) late entry is Friday before NY OPEN
LAST STATISTICALLY POSSIBLE OUTCOME: 1) the drop will bleed into 6/21 2) the low will During New York for both of them 3) there are basically two rallies 4) the first rally should end by 6/27 5) the first top range is 2485-2505
By 10:33 AM ET, 6/19, supposedly 1 day ahead of entry day, I've eliminated all likely routes AND ALL UNLIKELY ROUTES to fit July 5th high schedule. Why July 5th? Simple, this is because that's the window allowed for by intermediate to long term trends combined. They only stay "in rally position for the period leading up to this. That also means that the last...
All the hard work has been done. Time to get paid!! Continuing from PART 14, I about near give up routing this Because that wave was not moving. But it has moved a little bit and that's all we need to know. In chart above, blue route is triple top, yellow route is double top. Same difference here because they both lead to 50+ point rug pull during Tokyo...
Pattern and trend aiming for the low today right now. 1) gray route is base case from previous post PART 12 2) blue route is what trend engine says happens here in this setup 3) which is a drop to 2290 today and then 3 bounces takes price to 2265 4) I favor blue route because it solves out trend wave problems 5) skipped PART 13 bc today could be entry day 6)...
There are no possible routes except for this one. I am getting this up first.
This continues from PART 3. No time to add notes. I will add as we go.