as charts shows we can see a pretty big hidden bearish divergence on weekly rsi. heavy retrace is to be expect.
I'd be cautious, just after 150% up move from 3.2k most people calling for a bottom.. we'll see.
- bullish scenario
daily close above the yearly support would invalidate the classic behavior of a typical descending triangle (breakdown then retest of the old support as resistance and continuation downward)
i don't expect this to happen at the first attempt, more likely to see a consolidation between 5.5-5.8k.
- bearish scenario
if we get a bad rejection at...
1) the last three rejections with less and less volume
2) higher lows on daily macd
3) big hidden bullish div CMF
on the other side bullish structure will be very compromised if 6.1k gets broken and that's where I'd close my long.
While a new cycle can be well confirmed once 11.7k resistance is broken with a close above it on higher timeframes (weekly/monthly)....
BTC is approaching to the main resistance and a possible break up over the next days but I'll personally look for another and last rejection at $6950-7050 and eventually 6.1-6.3k area before breaking out on the upside.
but keep in mind if we get below 6k the bearish scenario should play out already.
still remember when a very good trader said in April "price movements below 10k have only been a distraction to shake you out before $14k" and I got it what he meant and I still expect this kind of target.
Anyway so that this can play out very well BTC doesn't have to break the lowest point which is at $5750 otherwise a strong down move will come (key levels will...
what kind of decision?
1) capitulation? yeah possible only if it goes to 5.7-6k again.
2) new ATH ? possible but very unlikely to me.
3) a nice uptrend before printing a new low? still expecting this one!
my $12.7-14k target hasn't changed at all but here BTC needs to stay above the support ( blue trend line) since it's not good another $5.7-6k retest and too...
right now we can see btc inside this rising wedge, so I expect a break down over the next days and then we could see 5.7k retest, also possible a small wick to 5.5k.
anyway If I'm looking at the right picture we are in accumulation phase (5.5-8.5k) where we'll hit 8k more or less (by end of sept) and retest 5.7-6k again and this 12/14k uptrend starting from...
as I said in the last posts I think BTC can hit targets between $11-14k (with or without etfs) but first I expect it will drop to 5.6k simply because of a
- hidden bearish div (downtrend continuation)
- bearish crossover on weekly RSI which is about to happen
anyways my final target is something between 1-3k (late 2019) then from my point of view this cycle like...
the picture is clear, we've had almost the same up move and patterns like in April (6.4k-9.9k).
unless we already go above the daily MA 200 we should find support between 7.8-8k and going close to 8.6k, after this I personally expect btc to go to 5k area and since we have various news about etfs In the upcoming months I still think manipulation will not be over...
I'm actually thinking 3 scenarios right now:
the first one is that we'll start going down again from 7.7k with 3k target (if btc should break 6.8k down) but this could be obvious simply because more and more ppl are looking at that
the second one is that the false breakdown of the descending triangle (like 2014) as bear trap and If I see the weekly...
If btc repeats itself like in 2014 the bottom should be 3000/3500$ just based on a pure comparison with it.
For now seems like it could complete the right shoulder, but if we look at the past the IH&S pattern almost never played out.
I see two scenarios right now.
1) this IHS will play out, after all seems like most ppl expect it won't (based on the past) which...
Sounds like a lot of people get bullish so easily by looking at some TA and various telegram chat after this bounce.
bear market is not over yet especially after breaking the main support (red trend line) acted as such many times and now it will act as the main resistance.
what I noticed is the "big triangle" that the crowd was looking at with same arrows inside...
it's still possible that we could see another trap towards 8.5k (just below the weekly SMA 20) but I would also consider it could go much higher than I expect (unlikely). main supports where BTC should bounce by 10/35% are: a)5k~ b)3k~ 3)1.8k~ d)1.2k as final bottom.
this is what I think right now, then btc shouldn't reach the new ATH until it will hit at least...