Bigger Picture, framing the context: Gold is in an uptrend and the patterns on the daily also indicate that gold will trend higher. On the 4H we have what looks like a continuation flat in the making, it wicked on the trend-line, with a spike in volume which indicates a reversal/turning point. People got interested at this level. Intra-day Pattern(s): We are...
Bigger Picture, framing the context: Gold is in an uptrend and the patterns on the daily also indicate that gold will trend higher. On the 4H we have what looks like a continuation flat in the making, it wicked on the trend-line, with a spike in volume which indicates a reversal/turning point. People got interested at this level. Intra-day Pattern(s): We are...
The analysis to the down-side is working out, and price-action is confirming more down to retest lows. From a pattern perspective, breaking the lows will result in a 'regular flat' structure. The worrying trend that I see is that volume is decreasing while the price is going lower and lower, this is not an indication of selling strength, and therefore, I will be...
For now I would say the higher probability move is to go down and retest the low, based on how the volume is behaving. But have to be a bit more patient and monitor how price develops at the recent low.
If we are to continue up the following weeks to break the top, (1) a spike in volume to indicate buyers entering the market would be confirming that the price is going further up. (2) I want to see volume and price strength on the lower timeframes showcasing buyers entering, and continuing to push the up-trend further, so 'higher highs, lower highs'.
NGAS was not able to break and hold above 3 dollars, it tested 3 times, and failed. We might be looking at a possible completed 3-wave structure - which means the next move could go down and test previous lows. Note to self: NGAS is quite fun to trade, analyze and set up possible IF-then scenarios since it's moving very sharply and a lot, this creates lots of...
Price-action made a clean pattern on elevated volume, it has also been moving very sharply indicating lots of buyers stepped in.
I'm looking for this scenario to be the highest probable move at this moment. The patterns are starting to form and come together, even though they are a bit complicated. But price-action bouncing off previous structure key level + making bullish patterns on elevated volume.
Highest probable move for the day as I currently see it. For now, the volume is low, and MACD trending slightly down which indicates that there's no momentum yet for that up-move. But this also indicates that market participants are building up their positions. London Open is just around the corner, which might be the catalyst for an up-move.
IF-THEN Scenarios that I'm looking at right now, these directions are purely based on possible historical market patterns that tend to repeat themselves. I will continuously update my view as the market develops.
We ended up with the possibility of another flat, and 1 more up to break the top once again. B-waves are always very time-consuming and can go on for a long time. Because of their corrective nature, price is traded heavily here. But from what we know about structure, the different flats, and combined with indicators that are "indicating" that buyer weakness is...
Price is just consolidating on the 1H at the moment. And it is now looking like we are getting another flat. The overall long-term view remains the same, still expecting a big move down. But for the current analysis, it is looking like we are getting short-term flat to go up 1 more time.
Possible down-move might be coming now. On the 15min we are getting a flat structure, which could indicate the beginning of the move down. Only patience will tell whether we will get this move or not. If any other structural changes happen I will reevaluate the analysis and readjust accordingly, but for now, my trade thesis is the highest probable one.
We broke the top, so I can eliminate the regular or contracting flat idea. We are now either making an expanding or running flat. There's lots of divergence which suggests buyer weakness. The buyers have been fighting for a while, and pressing the price up, but it looks like price and sellers are getting ready for that down-move now.
Looks like price decided to go up once more to break the top, and it created a similar structure to what we had before, 'a running flat'. The analysis remains the same for now, the bigger picture still looks like a regular flat for 1 more big move down.
Looks like the down-move is beginning, look for it to go down and break the low, which would complete a regular flat. On the 1H time-frame, it formed a correction, an entry point, from which you could have sold, and the structure is currently making such a correction again, giving you another clue that the sellers are still strong, and the structure will continue down.
We still haven't completed any patterns, 4 types of patterns are still possible to play out, a regular, expanding, contracting, or running flat. It all depends on whether we break the top or not before the down-move starts. But it seems like we will have 4H divergence, and the RSI is crawling up to overbought territory. Both indicators suggesting buy weakness....