Morning folks, We still suggest that market should show reaction on few moments - reaching of monthly 15.5K target, monthly overbought level and dropping of the Hash rate. All these moments suggest at least minor technical response in a way of pullback from the top. Still, as we're dealing with long-term time frames - the range of reaction and timing could be...
Morning folks, There are a lot of thinks that I would like to say concerning BTC situation, but the scale of update here doesn't let me to do this. Shortly speaking, we see few reasons for retracement on BTC. Our long-term view remains positive, next target, we suggest, stands at ~21070$, but now market needs to relief and take the breath. It was tough run in...
Morning folks, Our 3-Drive pattern is done accurately and now we turn to larger scale - weekly BTC chart. We know that we also have all-time COP target around 15.5K on Monthly chart, but now we have a lot of doubts that price will get there. First is - if you take a look at US 10 year yield , you'll see that it has dropped ~ for 30% in recent two days. This...
Greetings everybody, So, it was tough week when market sentiment was changing day by day. Once in first three days there was explosive demand for US Bonds and dollar, so that yields has dropped 15% - next two days situation has become drastically different and yield only yesterday has jumped for 5+% indicating decreasing of the pressure on riskier assets and...
Greetings everybody, So, BTC almost has reached our daily 14K butterfly target (slightly missed) and then it has become the victim of global tendency - "run into the quality" Sell-off stands everywhere, as investors run into USD and US Bonds. The yields of 10-year Bonds has dropped for 15% just within 3 days. As elections still stand ahead, this process...
Morning folks, Coming week will be the last before elections turmoil and is promised to be relatively quiet. We treat chances to see stimulus pack as low and recent rally mostly is partial pricing-in of Biden's victory. If it is everything clear what will happen in a case of D.Trump victory, concerning Biden, it seems that 12K-12.3K area looks not bad for long...
Morning folks, So, stimulus euphoria totally has erased short-term bearish context. Still, this is fragile foundation because if something will go wrong, rally easily could be reversed. Anyway, currently we have the new background. As you can see, our "222" Sell has shifted into butterfly that already has hit the first, 1.27 extension. As price stands at...
Morning folks, It seems technicals take back seat totally. Pelosi has changed the opinion three times in recent week and rally is a result of last change. It is extremely difficult to trade in current environment. It seems that our short-term bearish context is totally crushed and today all eyes of investors will be on achievement of stimulus pack, as Pelosi...
Morning everybody, Despite that we keep positive view on BTC in long-term perspective, and still keep our 15.5K target, in shorter-term we worry even not about BTC background but about fundamentals that stand not in favor of immediate rally. Take a look - no stimulus will be provided till Nov.3., Biden leadership is too wide and we think that it will contract in...
Morning folks, After initial spike based on our former scenario market has stopped and was put on hold by Pelosi words on rejection of 1.8Trln stimulus that has hurt all markets across the board. BTC as you know keeps high degree of correlation with stocks and this is the reason why we suggest that it could go deeper before it again will go higher. Just take a...
Morning folks, Not occasionally we have called to sit on the hands on Thursday... so, now we have confirmation of bearish scenario's destruction as market follows to common tendency in euphoria of US stimulus pack negotiations. Markets want to be happy, erasing any common sense, and treating negative news (that no stimulus are provided now) as positive news. So,...
Morning everybody, in previous update we said that upside action back to 11K area could happen and it even has started, but after few sessions price has lost upside pace totally. Currently we see contradictive patterns among different time frames. For example - on daily, we have few bullish grabbers that still suggest return to 11-11.2K area, while on intraday...
Morning everybody, Actually there is just single update to the chart. On daily time frame we've got the bullish grabber. Theoretically it suggests upward action and here, on the 4H chart I've tried to show what could happen if it works. In this case BTC could show upside AB=CD action very close to butterfly's invalidation point, forming "222" Sell. So, the shape...
Greetings everybody, Market reasonably stands flat in recent few sessions as everybody waits for NFP numbers that should have decisive meaning, because of lack of any other information. Indeed, positive NFP supports USD and should trigger downside action on BTC. Because they mean that no new liquidity will be provided until elections. The opposite is also true...
Morning everybody, Despite some bullish activity on Friday, by our view it is not sufficient yet to break existing bearish setup on the market. In fact, everything is based on 11.2K top. Bulls have to wait either upward breakout of this level or completion of our major scenario with 9K target. We have positive outlook for long perspective and think that market...
Greetings everybody, So, first reaction, based on our 4H "222" Sell pattern looks nice, and it seems that it should continue, based on the situation that we see on stocks and other markets across the board. Thus, currently we do not see yet the reasons to change our daily view and expectations of deeper downside action. At first glance on 1H chart situation...
Morning folks, Market was so lazy last week, that actually not much to add. The only minor detail - bearish divergence on 1H chart. As our 4H "222" Sell is ready to trigger, divergence and minor bearish grabber bring additional confidence. All other things stand the same: target 8.8-9.1 daily K-support, invalidation point 11.20-11.40 resistance on 4H chart,...
Morning folks, BTC has reached predefined retracement targets and now is the moment of truth. We suggest that downside odds are higher now by few reasons. This is technical picture on weekly and daily charts and recent Fed statement. We think that it deserves stronger downside reaction as JP speech was supportive to USD, but somehow overall reaction stands...