Straight-forward 5 wave formation. Happy to be wrong on this one. In the event I am right you heard it here first.
With the apparent Tether manipulation, indications long term holders sold and endless forks of BTC and other coins the crypto space of today is very different from the crypto space 18 - 24 months ago.
Technical play based on fundamentals. Trump impeachment or resignation negates.
On the weekly we have seen a 76% retracement of the 1st wave correction from 286 to 253. At the same time tax cut euphoria has passed and Trump policies finally starting to affect the markets negatively.
The SPY at Trump's election was +/-266 making it a level to watch
Rand strength has seen USDZAR on the backfoot lately. Of interest is the failure to break above 12.50.
So looking at the weekly there are two ways to read this.
1) We have seen an equal legs ABC correction into the 12.38 level. Problem with this is the absence of a pin bar at the lows of end Dec 2017 and the first week of Jan 2018
2) We have a head and...
Lewglasgow identified a 5-0 pattern on Cable (kept the points marked in black).
A less sophisticated look would be a Elliott Wave 5 waves down and 3 wave correction.
With that in mind sell current levels (1.2330) and higher at 1.2450 if seen.
3x reversal at 1.2440 for break even or profits on potential moves into 1.2675
Once the 5th Wave...
Brent looks bullish based on confluence/alignment of 3 technical methods.
1) Elliot Waves - a 5 waves down and a simple ABC correction (with equal length A and C legs for a conservative target) gives C at $65.50. If C is equal to the high of the 4th wave the target is $69.60
2) Inverted Head & Shoulders gives a target of $78.65
3) The candles at 50% of the 3rd...
Fundamentally Bearish ZAR, Bullish USD (see realted idea )
However, we have a rencent lower low and what looks to be a USD bearish 5th wave.
Therefore, its a 13.81 sell for
- TP1 13.40
- TP2 13.25
- TP3 13.00
3x reversal above 14.10 forbreakeven and profits into 14.30
Buy Sterling with a Take Profit target in the Brexit ICT Liquidity Zone
- Buy 1.3260 and TP 1.3600 (Reward:Risk of 2.38:1)
- Buy 1.3255 and TP 1.3600 (Reward:Risk of 3.2:1)
Intermediate targets would be 1.3345 and 1.3410
Look to phase in a 3x reversal below 1.3115
1. Elliott wave setup as per chart
2. Support/Resistance Flip ties in nicely...
- 14.00 is a significant technical level
- post Brexit, Emerging Markets are relatively more attractive destinations opening the way for $/ZAR weakness into 13.00, 12.50 and 12.30
With this is mind;
Buy 14.20 and 14.05
TP1 - 15.40
TP2 - 15.75
In reversal look to enter 2x short below 13.70. Targets 13.00 and 12.30 in extension
Overall bias is for a move higher.
Lack of stops above 1.1150 means a likely dip to 1.1100 stop losses before moving higher.
Heavy bidding interest at 1.1100 and very heavy interest at 1.1000
Purple - Limit Orders
Red - Stop Loss Orders
Dark yellow - Stop Loss Orders (secondary source - less reliable)