TylerNorcross

TylerNorcross

As mentioned above, one of the markets that has reacted most positively to the reassessment of expectations over US Federal Reserve’s probable rate cut path this year is the US dollar. Following Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected US CPI numbers, the Dollar Index has rallied over 1.7% in a straight line. It is currently trading at its highest level in five months....

TylerNorcross

US stock indices fell sharply yesterday following yet another hotter-than-expected inflation reading. Headline CPI for March jumped to 3.5% year-on-year, up from the 3.4% expected, and well above the 3.2% recorded in February. The latest reading is the highest since September’s 3.7%, and it has certainly rattled financial markets. Stock index futures sold off...

TylerNorcross

Headline CPI for March jumps to 3.5% year-on-year, up from the 3.4% expected, and well above the 3.2% recorded in February. The latest reading is the highest since September’s 3.7%, and it has certainly rattled financial markets. Stock index futures sold off sharply, as did precious metals, while the US dollar soared. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note...

TylerNorcross

Markets feel as if they’re on hold now ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI update. This has gained additional significance following comments from Federal Reserve members last week. Some have said that the recent stalling of the decline in inflation, together with robust economic data releases, means that it’s far too early to consider cutting rates. That was the view...

TylerNorcross

On Friday, all the major US stock indices ended higher, making back some of their losses from earlier in the week. But overall, US equities had a bad run with the S&P 500 posting its biggest percentage weekly loss so far this year. The triggers for the sell-off, which saw the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ 100 end down 2.3%, 1.0% and 0.8% respectively, were statements from...

TylerNorcross

Last Wednesday, gold closed above $2,300 for the first time ever. It then pulled back a touch, and weakened further following Friday’s strong payroll numbers, before surging to fresh highs. Gold has been on quite a tear over the last six months. Back in early October, it came within a few dollars of breaking below $1,800 per ounce. Since then, it has rallied...

TylerNorcross

On Monday the Dollar Index hit its highest level since mid-November, driven by a jump in yields on US Treasury bonds. But the dollar has fallen quite sharply since then. However, it’s the Japanese yen that remains the main focus in FX. The USDJPY continues to consolidate near multi-decade highs, just below 152.00. We have heard several warnings from senior...

TylerNorcross

Crude oil continues to push higher. Front-month WTI is currently trading well above $85 per barrel, which is its highest level since the end of October last year. The rally began three weeks ago, after crude punched through resistance at $80, a level that had held it back since November. It briefly tested $80 as support. That held quite comfortably, setting up...

TylerNorcross

Gold has really sprung into life over the last six weeks. In mid-February it was trading below $2,000 per ounce. Now it is over $2,250, registering a gain to date of 14%. Bear in mind, these gains have come even as the dollar is effectively unchanged over the same time period. And perhaps even more impressively, the Dollar Index has added 2.6% over the last three...

TylerNorcross

US stock index futures were a touch weaker this morning. But this follows a particularly strong session yesterday which saw the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 close up 1.2%, 0.9% and 0.5% respectively. But the stand-out performance came from the Russell 2000, the US’s broad-based, domestically-focused mid-cap stock index. It ended the session over 2% higher,...

TylerNorcross

Even in a holiday-shortened week, with little in the way of data, the path of least resistance remains upwards for US equities. The economic backdrop is generally favourable. The US economy is growing at a faster rate than expected, unemployment remains low and the understanding is that interest rates have peaked, even if the timing of future rate cuts remains...

TylerNorcross

Crude oil was a touch firmer this morning, as front-month WTI continues to put some blue water between itself and key support at $80 per barrel level, previously resistance. There are several factors which boost the current bullish narrative. Firstly, there are the ongoing OPEC+ production cuts, set to run until the end of the second quarter. Then there is the war...

TylerNorcross

Last Wednesday’s more dovish than expected FOMC ‘Dot Plot’ saw gold fly higher and surge above $2,200 for the first time ever. The move came as the dollar fell on the forecast that there would be three 25 basis point rate cuts this year, unchanged from December’s prediction. But gold was unable to hold its initial gains and pulled back sharply on Thursday and...

TylerNorcross

Crude oil has pulled back sharply from the highs seen earlier this week. This is despite Wednesday’s dovish Fed meeting which has held out the prospect of lower interest rates this year. Lower rates should boost economic activity and so be good for energy prices. But the oil market is used to strolling its own pathway, and that’s certainly what it’s doing now. Oil...

TylerNorcross

Precious metals flew higher in the wake of yesterday’s Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. There was a dovish surprise in that the US central bank’s FOMC indicated that they still expect to cut rates by 75 basis points this year, despite a recent uptick in inflation. The US dollar dropped sharply, giving dollar-denominated commodities a boost, while the...

TylerNorcross

Gold continues to consolidate not far below of all-time highs. This comes after the sharp rally which began in mid-February. Gold is managing to hold above $2,150 on an intra-day basis, and this level is rapidly developing into a significant area of support. Gold was down a touch this morning, which in itself showed remarkable resilience given recent dollar...

TylerNorcross

The major US stock indices ended higher yesterday, breaking three days of back-to-back losses from the middle of last week. The mid-cap Russell 2000 failed to join in however, ending Monday’s session down 0.7%. All the US indices were weaker this morning, but picked up as the day wore on. Investors are likely to sit on their hands now during the two-day Fed...

TylerNorcross

Gold continues to consolidate. This follows its month-long rally which began after it briefly broke down below $2,000 per ounce in mid-February. Last week, gold pulled back from its best levels as the dollar jumped higher on hotter-than-expected inflation data. The news has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may push back the timing of its first rate cut....