TylerNorcross

TylerNorcross

US stock index futures were sharply lower in early trade on Friday, adding to losses from the last three sessions. Looking at the daily chart we can see another retest of support at the bottom of the upwardly-sloping trendline. The catalyst for yesterday’s move came in a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He reiterated his opinion that inflation was still too...

TylerNorcross

On Monday the S&P 500 put in a strong performance, ending the day over 1% higher above 4,370. This move represented a decent recovery from the sell-off at the end of last week which saw the index fall towards 4,300 before buyers came in ahead of Friday’s close. Today saw the index pull back again, ignoring some sold Q3 earnings reports. It fell further...

TylerNorcross

In the latest #TradewithDave update we look back at last week’s big events, and consider what’s happening in the week beginning 16th October. Q3 earnings season gets underway • Last Friday saw the unofficial start to the third quarter earnings season with results from JP Morgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock and United Health. • The banking giants posted...

TylerNorcross

Suddenly, there are signs of life in the gold market. As of Friday afternoon, the yellow metal is up close to 3% and trading around $1,920 an ounce. That is quite a significant move in just one day, and represents a gain of 6% from the low hit this time last week. It’s possible that gold has put in a bottom around the $1,810/20 area, although there is the danger...

TylerNorcross

Earlier today we got the latest update on US inflation in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Looking at the year-on-year data, Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at +4.1%, as expected, and below last month’s reading of +4.3%. This means that the downward trend in Core inflation since September last year, continues. As far as Headline CPI...

TylerNorcross

Last week gold was testing an area of support just a tad north of $1,800. This area had held up prices in February and March this year, and had acted as significant resistance back in August 2022. Last week there didn’t appear to be much going in gold’s favour. But as it traded sideways in a band between $1,830 and $1,810 we noted that the MACD on the four-hour...

TylerNorcross

Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll update initially saw stock indices swoon and bond yields jump. This was in reaction to the news of a 336,000 increase in September’s Non-Farm Payrolls, way above the 170,000 expected. In addition, the prior reading was revised up by 40,000. Overall, this was enough to convince investors of continued robustness in the US labour market,...

TylerNorcross

We look back at last week’s big events, and consider what’s happening in the week beginning 9th October. Equities fight back US stock indices had a dismal September, with all the majors posting significant losses for both the month and the third quarter. Investors are hoping for a better return in October, although the early indications haven’t been good....

TylerNorcross

We’ve had a clutch of US employment updates this week. On Tuesday JOLTS Job Openings came in above expectations which saw bond yields jump and stock indices fall. The following day the ADP Private Payroll report came in well below expectations, leading to a fall in bond yields and a jump in equities. Weekly Jobless Claims were in line with expectations, and...

TylerNorcross

The sell-off in gold has been protracted. It has fallen over 12% since hitting a record high of $2,082 just six months ago. It is currently hovering above $1,800 – a level which acted as support between February and March this year, and as resistance in August last year. Gold was trading at $1,600 in November 2022, before it rallied sharply to hit May’s record...

TylerNorcross

The US dollar remains king of the FX heap, with the Dollar Index (DXY) hitting its highest level since November 2022. As can be seen from the daily chart, the DXY has broadly kept within the boundaries of an upwardly-sloping trend channel since July this year. The big question is whether it has further to run to the upside or if it’s due a correction. It’s...

TylerNorcross

For investors hoping that US equities would recover their mojo once September was in the rearview mirror, October is proving a disappointment – so far. The S&P 500 ended Monday’s session effectively unchanged. But it fell sharply soon after Tuesday’s open, yet again testing support at the bottom of the upward-sloping trend channel that has been building since...

TylerNorcross

In the latest #TradewithDave update we look back at last week’s big events, and consider what’s happening in the week beginning 2nd October. Stocks struggle through September Global stock indices, led by the US, struggled to find a foothold in September. At the time of writing (Friday morning), and despite a positive start to trading, the Dow is on course to...

TylerNorcross

On Wednesday the S&P 500 briefly broke below 4,240 to test support at the lower end of an upward-sloping trend channel that has been building since last October’s low. This took the index back to its lowest level since the early summer and had many traders expecting an extended decline. But it snapped back and in early trade on Friday the S&P had added just...

TylerNorcross

On Wednesdy gold slumped below $1,900 per ounce to hit its lowest level since March this year. Some analysts blame the dollar for this, pointing out that gold is negatively correlated with the US dollar. In fact, while this can be the case, there are plenty of times in history when the two have risen together, fallen together or completely ignored each other. It’s...

TylerNorcross

With less than a week to go until the end of September and the beginning of the fourth quarter, it looks as if the stage is set for a painful decline for the rest of 2023. The S&P is down around 4% so far this month, and has lost 6.5%, or 300 points, since it poked its head above 4,600 at the end of July. This high also marked the S&P's best level since March...

TylerNorcross

In the latest #TradewithDave update we look back at last week’s big events, and consider what’s happening in the week beginning 25th September. The US Federal Reserve Last Wednesday the Federal Reserve’s FOMC kept its key Fed Funds interest rate unchanged, as expected. This was the first FOMC meeting since July when the Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points,...

TylerNorcross

In the latest #TradewithDave update we consider some of this week’s big events, and take a look at what’s happening in the week beginning 18th September. US inflation We had the latest updates on US inflation in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Producer Price Index (PPI). While mixed overall, both reports showed some upside surprises, with...