"Believe it" is a technical pattern I recently stumbled upon thanks to another astute investor. While I'm not strictly following it, the factors involved have allowed me to tweak parameters and observe for any information value. Hence, this week's title dedication. Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) remains my primary and governing perspective for understanding where...
I'm running out of ways (and patience) expressing the expectation for new all time highs (ath) for SPX. Seems I'm not alone. Bearish sentiment is up (a bullish sign), tweets and tariffs failed to take out February low, etc. and so we wait....again. Pay less attention to news headlines and look closer at facts, namely how money is going in/out of equities. I've...
Hopefully everyone is enjoying the Holiday weekend and March Madness. Instead of the weekly Elliott Wave post this week zooms in to detail with a Butterfly for the holiday. Harmonics are an excellent way to identify critical turning points and help manage risk at target and stop locations. Having price level objectives and using discipline are critical for...
Where do we go? Oh, (sweet child) Where do we go now? If Guns N' Roses can't get you going for what's ahead, then I'm not sure what will. I've even added a butterfly pattern for the Sweet Child that's following. Finally time to resolve direction. Expectation is a hold of support (3 layers shown) followed by new "ATH." However, significant danger of further...
The corrective process is coiled and ready for Spring Time. Visits to 200, then 100 and then 50d sma levels provide support for a move higher. The three declines are symmetric in scale as is expected for subsequent rebounds higher after several higher lows. The symmetric profile is common in EW for new stimulus (initial decline) followed by successive "echo"...
The clammer of bears has been silenced by the rally of last week. Some retain hope, but would be wise to read the signs of new highs by Nasdaq and other leading sectors. Market behavior has been totally consistent with Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) projections. Various alternatives are always considered and this graph provides the more conservative bullish forecast...
Crunch time is near for the higher degree wave started in November 2016 as part of the yet higher degree wave started in March 2009. However, that is a worry for later in 2018 and I've done preliminary estimates based on near term outcome(s). The current movements will be very telling for what to expect. Interesting activity from February carried into March. ...
Charlie Brown (equity Bears) slip and fall again as Lucy pulls away the football and laughs. With so many on the side of the boat anticipating a re-test of the 2/9 lows of 2533 it was bound to not happen. Some jumped back in and helped turn the market higher by bouncing off 2698. Others will follow and support the expected move to all time highs (ATH). Wave 5...
After the best week for SPX since 2013 it is time to take the temperature of the Bears. Can they spook everyone with chatter about interest rates or market volatility? We'll see. Expectation is for a healthy pause and pullback. Don't be complacent as a drop to 2670 is still a 3% decrease off the 2754 high on 2/16/18. That is about the level of the "echo"...
My weekly Elliott Wave post received an interesting comment/question about how Wave 4 may unfold. I shared my thoughts there, but thought an illustration would help, too. For corrective patterns I like to supplement my Elliott Wave analysis with Harmonic patterns. For those unfamiliar, it is guesswork, but a guide to understanding how ups/downs unfold. So what...
Sometimes a bold call is necessary and this is one. The market appears coiled to spring rapidly higher after a week of extreme ups and downs. My conclusion is the January move upward was an aberration from euphoria over the Tax Bill passage. An otherwise expected 8% drop timed for January was slightly delayed until late in the month and carried to the expected...
The long awaited pullback arrived in late January and hit harder as we entered February. How long will you see red? Wave 4 correction will carry lower, but not before a quick bounce up as it unfolds. Magnitude expectation for the current degree is 5%-8% overall, which fits nicely with the lower support trend line and 50 day simple moving average area near 2700....
Ah, The Clash! (No, not the crash). Great song, including these catchy lyrics: "If I go, there will be trouble And if I stay it will be double So come on and let me know..(sing it)" Well, maybe a long term perspective helps answer the questions. I'm switching (for now) to a longer term view covering the entire move since 2009. New Fibonacci numbers and...
Interesting boundary at 9,200 and 13,000 levels. A move lower will re-test 9,200 and a sharp breakout above 13,200 has larger potential. Will be an interesting weekend and start of new business week.
Market will ignore government shutdown as it reacts to sentiment and global economic factors. Amazing upward run continues and sufficient caution should be observed for any temporary pullback before heading higher. Note next higher Fibonacci level for eventual target. Major trend lines are in play for interim resistance and target pullback areas as noted.
Awesome display of strength to start the year. All targets move upward. Translation: I was wrong about the strength of the move. I'm not alone. This market will make a genius of everyone. Those long will boast about how they got out and made a killing. Others will gloat after an eventual pullback. It will be amazing to see how many got it right! ( right...
Building on last week's chart the wave 4 move to $13,200 area as expected is upon us. The sideways move and lower trend line support reflect opportunity for upside, but with caution if price moves sharply lower. Keep tight stops and watch RSI, MACD, for oversold levels. BTC has taken various hits from government regulations and public concerns. It has held...
Changes made to reset channel lines and zoom in of Elliott Waves for closer look at price movement. The 12/22/17 drop to 11,150 is holding and a stronger base building for a wave 5 move up. A re-test of 13,200 near Fibonacci level would be a good indication of strength in the event of a drop from 16,700 level. Upside resistance likely at next higher Fibonacci...