michaelgoldin

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Markets Allocation
43 % stocks 57 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
TLT 14% | 1 NVDA 14% | 1 DXY 14% | 1 VIX 14% | 1
michaelgoldin michaelgoldin XAUUSD, W, Long ,
XAUUSD: Cycle bottom
44 1 2
XAUUSD, W Long
Cycle bottom

Note Gold's cyclical bottoms. They occur ever 24 weeks (6 months, 1/2 year) They can be offset, early or late, but they occur with regular frequency. Lesson: Wait for the 24-week correction to enter Gold long.

michaelgoldin michaelgoldin NVDA, W, Short ,
NVDA: What goes up...
147 2 4
NVDA, W Short
What goes up...

NVDA has gone utterly parabolic. The rush for the doors will be crowded... P/E: 50 P/B: 9 Projected EPS growth next year: 9% Insider transactions over past 6 mo.: -20% 95% above the long term consensus of value (50WMA)

michaelgoldin michaelgoldin DXY, W, Short ,
DXY: Careful Dollar Bulls
45 2 2
DXY, W Short
Careful Dollar Bulls

The DXY has surprised everyone, breaking out to multi-year highs. Bearish thesis: Price is currently stretched 13% above the long term consensus of value (200WMA) RSI and MACD show negative divergence Should the dollar reverse and close below $100, a powerful bear trap would be elected. A topping or engulfing candle would attract attention The smaller time frames ...

michaelgoldin michaelgoldin VIX, D,
VIX: Where is the fear?
45 3 1
VIX, D
Where is the fear?

Seems like all anxiety and fear in the market is gone. I am hesitant to believe the market will receive Trump with such benevolence longer term. The market has reacted as the new president has eliminated bureaucracy and inefficiencies in the government. His policies remain rumors at the moment. Nothing is official yet. The VIX spiked pre-election and crashed. It ...

michaelgoldin michaelgoldin TLT, W,
TLT: Bonds do correct
32 2 1
TLT, W
Bonds do correct

We have been hearing a lot of bearish sentiment on bonds recently. Many proclaim the death of the multi-decade bond bull. We have not heard Janet Yellen's FOMC statements on interest rates yet. The economic data is not overwhelmingly strong, so one could expect a dovish outlook. Trump does not control interest rates, so amid the rumors of a rising rates, the new ...

michaelgoldin michaelgoldin QQQ, W,
QQQ: Rotate out of technology
54 3 1
QQQ, W
Rotate out of technology

Very difficult to get the timing right, but I believe we are nearing the top of the epic NASDAQ-100 run. Prices could consolidate or levitate upwards for weeks/months Price is currently stretched >20% above the long term consensus of value (200WMA) Price is forming a bearish ascending wedge RSI is showing negative divergence MACD is rolling over Price is ...

michaelgoldin michaelgoldin SPX, D,
SPX: Election
72 0 4
SPX, D
Election

Election Retrospective What a day! in attempt to understand how markets function, I postulate what could have happened. The following is for entertainment and education is not actionable. On election night, after Trump was elected, the SP500 crashed 110 points (5%) before erasing all loses and spiking 130 points (+6%). In an almost perfect mirror of the Brexit ...

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