nagihatoum

nagihatoum

LTC showed strength today relative to BTC and attempted to change trend upward. Only to be rejected by the rising wedge that it fell out of. There was multiple rejections at 61.5 and bearish divergences, confirming a downward trend resumption.

nagihatoum

To my surprise the drop was extreme, RSI are way in oversold territory indicating further down side. The 4hrs 200ema was pierced, which is very bearish. BTC tested the daily 200 ema, which before I thought would be the maximum bottom. But it appears now that BTC is going to 8.5k, and can go lower to 8k. To be seen.

nagihatoum

Bottom around 8500 in my opinion, but that remains to be determined as we go down further. For now it looks like price will reach the green box.

nagihatoum

Recently the BTC to LTC ratio (the inverse of LTCBTC) dropped out of its midterm rising channel, resulting in a larger pump for LTCUSD compared to BTC. Whenever the ratio drops, that means LTC outperforms BTC and the inverse holds true. Now a bullish harmonic has formed, and the retracement to the channel support corresponds to the 0.5 fib of the harmonic. I...

nagihatoum

I am taking a stab at possible price action paths, using support and resistances, rising wedge pattern, descending channel pattern, curved channel, basic elliot wave theory and the 200 daily ema.

nagihatoum Updated 

Breakout in either directions can happen. A breakdown will result in the price action testing the 4hrs 200 ema. Bearish divergence on the 15 min RSI.

nagihatoum

Breakdown from ending diagonals are usually sharp and fast, but price action is taking its time going down. No major dump has occurred even though there is heavy and extensive bearish RSI divergence. It could be that LTC is very bullish. In any case the next hours is a downward correction. It remains to be seen how low it can get. Technically price should go down...

nagihatoum

Daily close in 6 hours and the BTC to LTC ratio brokedown from its midterm ascending channel by 4%. Daily close below the channel will confirm a change in trend of the ratio down. A downward ratio trend means That LTC will outperform BTC, it will pump harder and it will dump less. However there is a very big bullish divergence on the lower time frame that has...

nagihatoum Updated 

Dump is incoming.

nagihatoum

The BTC to LTC ratio slightly broke down today from its midterm upward moving channel. This is after testing the upper trendline resistance last week. If the breakdown is confirmed then we might be in for a new alts season. If this is just a false breakdown then Alts are going to perform badly compared to BTC and BTC dominance will continue rising.

nagihatoum

Broke down from its triangle and formed a bearish shark pattern, target around $55.

nagihatoum

Price action is within a widening wedge, formally a channel. Bearish divergence on the RSI makes me biased down. Breakup Possible. Breakdown can take two paths. Do not short BTC, it is technically the strongest crypto at this time. ALTs will perform worse and dump harder in case of a BTC dumps.

nagihatoum

Measured move for breakdown down from the triangle is a complete retracement of the recent pump. Will probably retest the fallen wedge. I am bullish long term, but this shows LTC weakness compared to BTC. BTC will also retrace but much less.

nagihatoum

Should test lower descending channel support, 4hrs 200 ema, gann fann support and close the CME gap at $8700.

nagihatoum

to drop to $51.5 and test previous widening wedge. Still resting on the 4hrs 200ema but very close to breakout. I am biased to a downward trend however it can break up. Anyway we should know in the next hour.

nagihatoum

BTC can be in an ABC correction where C reaches the 5k level, or it started a five wave impulse move that will reach 22k or more. This is the difficulty with Elliot wave theory, corrections and impulses are hard to identify or differentiate. Levels and targets are fuzzy in Elliot wave theories because the impulses can be extended and the correction can be at...

nagihatoum

The BTC to LTC ratio bounced hard when BTC pumped. LTC pumped but relative much less then BTC. And the trend of LTC weakness will continue for a while. BTC will pump and LTC much less. The ratio can reach 201. This will also coincide with BTC dominance rise. Alts season is still not here.

nagihatoum

On the 25th LTC broke over the 4hrs 200 ema and out of its descending widening wedge. It has broken down under it on September 22, a couple of days from the faithful free fall to the $40 levels. LTC is currently being supported by the 4hrs 200 ema. Will it break under it? Really depends on BTC. But if it breaks down then LTC will at minimum retest the widening...