I have this overall analysis of the various markets than seems to tell me that the equity markets are falling and thus the safe haven assets (Yen, Gold & Silver) should go up. This naturally led me to relook into different ways to count the waves for USDJPY. And here is one such.
Copper, the base metal that I suggested to long in my previous idea but now I am eating my words back. The reason? Friday's move down. As I pointed out in the chart, there is a reversal candlestick pattern (bearish engulfing) and then there are 3 Dojis with higher upper wicks. Also in my chart, I showed that the previous wave is, in fact, corrective. Thus, I am...
I don't really like the chart for Silver. It wasn't clear to me. And sometimes I have to make use of Gold to try to figure out Silver. Along with some fundamental correlations with Yen and the equity markets. Yup, so with all that, I try to formulate what could be the wave counts for Silver. It wasn't a very clear count to me but this is what I thought it could be.
This is just an update to what could be the wave counts for GC.
Firstly, let me put in a declaimer: I do not know if Elliott Waves can be applied to spreads. Secondly, this is a CFD and not the actual futures spread and thus some spikes are purposely disregarded because it can be due to the Oanda widening of the spreads that causes those moves (note that the CFD spreads are actually much wider than the futures and they have a...
This is just an update to S&P and some new observations since. What I've noticed recently is an increase in volatility in the US markets but a decrease in volatility for Gold. I do not know what it means, but I think definitely there are more uncertainties in equities and people are running to Gold.
My previous idea was to short GC and I said to sit on it if even if it is a cactus that you are sitting on. Last Friday, the needles had drawn blood. I have always kept an alternate count for Gold in the even that my short idea is wrong. But it has never been my preferred count and the reasons are: 1. The down move from $1900 in year 2011 moves down in 5 waves,...
My previous idea on Crude Oil is a long. I was positioned so, and I was stopped out. Whatever happened on Friday has caused me to activate my alternate count (which was actually the primary count for my earlier ideas) and that means that I am currently positioned short. And if I am right, CL is going to fall massively on not only a 3rd wave, but a breakdown of a...
I was totally baffled by the move on Friday. If you followed my ideas, you will know that I was positioned for a move up in equities. But Friday's move down had cost me quite a bit and my long was stopped out. I continued to probe the market and was whipped by short-term moves. However, I finally settled on a short position. Let me explain what could happen: I...
I know that the chart seems convoluted with waves. But if you study it carefully, you can see that what I draw, while it may not be obvious, is actually valid. I only came to this possibility just now but I think it will paint a very nice picture if AUDUSD did move down as I projected it to. Just a possibility given my current outlook of the market.
I don't particularly enjoy giving trade ideas that are too long-term but then I believe it is necessary given that I cannot be updating this as frequently as I would like. Anyway, my thesis is that equity markets will go up, precious metals will go down, base metal will go up and thus oil will go up (as consumption rises). I have changed my wave counts to reflect...
Longer-term trades and idea are hard to trade and even harder to sit on. But I believe that short GC is one such trade that we should sit on even we are sitting on a cactus (and having to bite another just to maintain the trade). I also know that there are a lot of arguments for why S&P will collapse (especially the very popular analysis of correlation with 2...
As I mentioned in my earlier idea on SI and GC, I was actually whipped by the market before the fall before I re-entered my short position. I believe that the market is consolidating for another wave down and it is actually still good to short SI. Take note of the Stop loss.
The idea right now is probably more useful last night rather than today. However, I do not update when I am actively trading. I am putting on this idea to express my view on the market and where the stop loss and TP should be. It will be more beneficial for people who already have long positions. While I do think that you can initiate a SMALL position now if you...
I am expecting a 3rd wave to unfold in Copper. This is in link with my view that the equity markets are going up.
To be honest, I will much prefer if TSLA has completed a clear 5-waves down. But last Thursday it has moved up strongly on above-average volume. The move up also formed a candlestick reversal pattern: Bullish Engulfing Pattern. Based on my various analyses of different instruments, I believe that the Equity markets have transited from bearish to bullish. If the...
I believe that it is now the right time to short Gold (and Silver). The reason is a continuation of a larger trend that has seen a corrective waveform (as I have mentioned in my earlier analyses). I believe that it is now the right time to get back into the short side with a small risk. Note that my ideas have a central theme here: LONG USD. What this means is...