sngyuchao

sngyuchao

As my charts clearly showed, we are at the end of an ending diagonal within an expanded flat. That is happening for both indices. Of course, for the NDX, it might be kind of a forced count (guilty as charged), however, if this scenario plays out, what is gonna happen is that the indices will make very swift move down. This is the characteristics of an ending...

sngyuchao

Based on trendline projected from the last 2 peaks, it seems like S&P has reached another resistance. The VIX is strangely up. This means that there are more puts being opened 23-30 days out and thus causing VIX to go up. Protection is being bought. No matter, it is important to realise that the risk-reward is now favoring the short side.

sngyuchao

Bears will keep trying to find opportunity to support their arguments. I am one of them.

sngyuchao

I have to admit, most, if not all, Elliott Wavers were shot in the head this year with the rising market. Personally, I was caught off guard by the strong upmove too. For any EW and macro speculator, the upmove in 2023 don't make sense. It is irrational. In fact, it could be irrational exuberance again. But as time passes, the truth starts to unfold: the market...

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I was wrong about SE way back in December last year. Price has since doubled. To be honest, I am really surprised that they could show positive financial results in the last earnings. Although I've yet to scrutinize the numbers, I do believe that it won't matter. I look at the macro environment and I look at charts for opportunities. Now the chart is telling me...

sngyuchao

I had recently publish the idea to short and now I am re-iterating this with an update to the count. While I had expected another small wave up in my previous analysis, I did not expect a throwover. If you had traded with the previous published idea (linked here), you should do well if you had managed your risk well. This, for you, will just be an update to the count.

sngyuchao

The market recently have been quite frustrating for EW analysts. The primary reason is because of combinations. Let me explain: If there are 2 things that can kill an Elliott Waver anticipating a reversal, they're extensions and combinations. Especially frustrating are combinations due to the fact that they are corrective in nature and hard to anticipate a...

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The shape looks good enough to attempt a short here. Keep the risk small since it's FOMC. Maybe don't trade until after FOMC. Up or down move today could be really violent.

sngyuchao

Well, just trying to see if there is any chance that we are at the top already. And 1:1 ratio looks good to me. Not to mention that this leg unfolds in 5 waves. Not attempting a macro count for the moment as it looks confusing with the massive liquidity in the market. Keeping it short term.

sngyuchao

From the above 2 charts, it seems like Nasdaq and S&P500 are on different cycles. Note that the Nasdaq was a recount. I had previously counted the same way between Nasdaq and SPX but the breaching of the last wave down necessitate the re-labelling of the counts.

sngyuchao

I came across an EW counts from a fellow EWer in Twitter but found the counting weird. So I decided to do my own counting. To my pleasant surprise, ARKK is a Fibonacci extension darling (and I love it when a chart follows Fibo levels). Warning: because of my tendency to love fibo levels, my psychological bias might force wave counts to fit (hopefully this time it...

sngyuchao

I cannot stress this enough: we are going to see volatility explode really soon. From what I see from the 5 mins chart, Tuesday might see a lower opening that will be the lowest the market will see in some time. Ending diagonals are significant. And they are also incredibly reliable patterns. I had traded this pattern multiple times when I was a professional...

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Elliott Waves is sometimes not tradeable. The reason is because there is no known method for predicting combinations and extensions (not that I know of anyway). So an Elliott Waver does what he can and tries to predict based on no extension or combination (extension may still be predictable with a certain accuracy if wave 3 falls short). Anyway, this is already...

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Building on my previous analysis on HSI, now we have hit the price target (even exceeded), and we have 2 additional confirmation: exhaustion gap and reversal candle. Now is the time to short with a SL slightly higher than the high of today.

sngyuchao

Based on my Elliott wave counts, HSI should see another 700 points potential to the upside before coming down. For now, I will caution against going long but be prepared to look for signs for short. Thus, this idea is published as a short.

sngyuchao

The USDJPY shows the strengthening of the JPY and that warns of more risk-off in the financial markets. This will mean more expected sell offs.

sngyuchao

As the chart clearly mapped out, I am expecting that crash of Nasdaq (, S&P, and DJIA) to be inevitable. Yesterday, Nasdaq has already broken down the trendline support, even though it rallied back the last 3 hours of trading, it didn't recover sufficiently to make it back up above the trendline. However, what can be seen (but not drawn) is a 5-wave completion of...

sngyuchao

Technically speaking, we can refer to the previous circled period where price temporary moved up above the VWMA. Similar to the price action during this period, I would expect SE to make new lows. Additionally, I expect that the company will announce the following within the next few months: 1. Job Cuts 2. Hiring freeze 3. Pay cut My suspicion is that the...