-retest TL, short on fail -no short over TL -over TL is breakout
-only if channel tests and not reject -otherwise big breakdown day
-only shorting below orange line - mean rev high if regular day (no short now) -if breakout day we build on that line and break the horizontal channel -this idea support mean/range day not breakout day
-was looking for a break out of the descending triangle into 157+ area (got that today, early) -failed break out of triangle? <--------- -neg / flat divergence in play? -only on a failure of 161 (currently over)
-friday target short reached -only long over the black mean rev line (currently we are below, NO TRADE) -trend has been momentum DOWN, never fight a trend or catch knives
yellow line must successful test and not reject (monday low) Bear: -normally this is a classic pennant break to the downside -narrow range also high probability of break to the downside -the 200 is close by Bull: -however a break is a break in either direction -range expansion with quarter end, month end vs re-balancing / range
-Bearish view coming in 2600 -Cycles are bearish next 10 hrs -Only if mean rev breaks -Bullish view is higher than monday low
-currently above RTM H -only short break below the line + test and return to channel
-only within channel, not above mean rev -declining avg volume on sharp rise (squeeze)