an irritating fact of es is that there are many (deliberately) vague price pivots to consider and use when drawing lines. more so with indexes than equities. i made a small adjustment to the line from prior posts, mostly at the june 15 low. the line is still working. what is important is that there are many price pivots on the line that indicate it is valid. ...
judging by daily stochastic, price will exceed the 10 year old channel line. i dont have a level but 11,000 has to be suspect as a target at minimum.
thursday payroll numbers will be issued. no trading friday. es showing hourly weakness. trend lines the same. i think its more likely price returns to the support downsloping line around 3190 and builds a case to advance monday. good payroll data is likely to boost of course. NQ very close to its upper long term channel line at 10350. daily price weaker...
after earnings momentum may eventually carry mu back to this break out break down back test line in weeks. the chart says the line is important. went as high as 52.75 today
this is the kind of crap the market has been pulling lately, over and over. daily, even weekly bearish divergence...does it count for a downturn? hardly. but hourly bullish divergence? well, its good for a 1-1/2% move up. why not. was it a valid 3rd hit of a trend line? yes. was it divergent hourly? yes. did it deserve this kind of move? dont think so. ...
price is beginning to validate this line. it could be price backtests this line while building rsi back to a normal level before falling again.
again using simple price action, i question "what about this line?" i cannot find a technical reason that this line is not valid. with price hitting the 236 retrace level of 2998 on friday, it is rational to assume some kind of a bounce. rsi and stochastic hourly are showing it is likely. a bounce greater than fridays drop? crazier things have happened lately....
the 2 close tags of the 50 dma can weaken its support. often a long fast drop to it will find support. its the story that says price hovering above a level, too close and for too long, intends to break thru that level without finding support. if sunday night futures drift thru the 50 dma by market open, there is the potential for a water fall selloff to the...
i like to zoom in and examine the structure of price to verify lines. i find the best lines are break out and break down lines. they have gentle slopes, usually less than 15 degrees or so. they are created by price consolidation that results in the break out or break down action that follows. price always comes back to these lines, and always has a reaction. ...
price is confirming this trend line as the major support trend line of the rally (left chart). nq has a couple serious problems that are starting to play out. severe weekly divergence in rsi, and now a weekly topping candle.
rsi divergence finally playing out. i dont believe this level 2998 will hold very long if at all, and the 50 dma is next up. 200 dma is no longer significant support or resistance. i still think one of the two lines shown come into play in july. a stochastic bottom will align with it.
havent been able to hit the broadside of the barn lately but nq finally went to top of its long term channel today. posted this line about a week ago.