(this is a "re-publish" for the one I originally posted on Dec. 1, for I didn't have time to write out all details to explain all special patterns that I discovered in chart)
Inspired by PlanB's (FinTwit @100trillionUSD) $BTC Stock-to-Flow (S2F) chart & pattern, along with my own macro economics & geopolitics studies, and my own realization of a possible USD crisis (as well as USD reform) may soon emerge, the combination of all these along with my TA & EW skills, I can't help but to realize a huge unparalleled Bitcoin & crypto bull run is about to emerge.
After carefully studying the $BTC weekly log chart, I discovered many, almost predictable, patterns that may help narrow down to how high and approximately when $BTC may reach those price targets and may top in this coming bull run.
<< an explanation concerning the "1st triangle" in chart >>
Before I start, let me point out that, the oldest $BTC data I can get from TradingView is 2012 (from Bitstamp crypto exchange), yet, at Investing.com I'm able to get $BTC data all the way to 2010. So, the "1st Triangle" I drew in my TradingView chart is an "estimate" based on data I get from Investing.com
<< Chart & interesting patterns discoveries & explanations >>
(a)
Purple duration (purple date range indicators; horizontal) of triangles :
This counting goes from the first time $BTC reached from under touching the bottom (long red line) of a triangle to all the way the tip of the triangle where $BTC breaks out & above. We can see the progression went from 107 for the 1st triangle, then 227 for the 2nd triangle, then finally 347 for the 3rd triangle. It's with this progression, I speculate the next number (and length) for the 4th triangle can be something like 467.
(b)
It seems to me, 1st & 2nd Triangle can be in a "pair", and based on this wondering, I speculate there is a chance that 3rd & 4th Triangle may also be a "pair" as well; hence, some similarities may happen between these 2 pairs ....... and the biggest possible similarity I'm looking at is the "2-level hockey stick" rapid $BTC price surge.
Finding possible top of the 4th triangle
(c.1)
Green height increase (green price range indicators; vertical) of triangles :
This counting goes from previous triangle top to the current triangle top. 1st triangle height increase was about 4912%; 2nd triangle height increase was about 5118%; the difference between these 2 values are about 125%.
With 3rd triangle height increase being 1813%, if 4th triangle is a pair with the 3rd one (just like 1st & 2nd), then with extra 25% increase from the 3rd one's height increase range %value, there is a possibility the height increase of 4th triangle can be around 2260%, pointing to $450K to $500K (or more) being the possible ceiling of the 4th triangle.
(c.2)
I drew a long thick line (pink) and thick dotted lines (purple) that connected some tops; based on those lines, I also pointed out the possibility of where the top might be in the 4th triangle.
Finding possible bottom of the 4th triangle
(d.1)
Blue in-between triangle height range (blue price range indicators; vertical) .... This is to find the bottom of a triangle through "previous triangle top to the current triangle when price 1st time bouncing off of the current triangle bottom trend line" :
In this case, 318% led to 1st triangle bottom, then about 279% led to 2nd triangle bottom, and finally 216% led to 3rd triangle bottom. Difference between 318 (to 1st) & 279 (to 2nd) = 39; difference between 279 (to 2nd) & 216 (to 3rd) = 63. Then I wonder, what is the chance, the difference between 216 (to 3rd) and the "to 4th %value" may be something like 87 ?? If so, in that case, the "%value to 4th" can be around 129%; which means the bottom of the 4th triangle can be around $43K
(d.2)
Orange area 88.6% Fib level :
I drew fib level going from a triangle top backward to the previous triangle top in order to find out where the orange area of 88.6% fib level may be at different section. It looks to me, the previous 2 bottoms happened to be in the 88.6% fib level areas. So I wonder about the chance of the bottom of the 4th triangle might too fall in the area of 88.6% fib level that I drew in chart (counting from an approximate likely top of the 4th triangle).
<< Conclusion >>
Please keep in mind that, these are of course only speculations based on past patterns. But since many of these patterns seem almost "predictable", so I decided to pay attention to possible similar repeats as the 4th triangle will appear.
Many $BTC bears have argued that, there is no way $BTC can reach high price level like $100K or even $500K in the foreseeable future. I used to think like that too, but once after I discovered all these predictable $BTC patterns, along with realizing how close we are about to walk right into a USD crisis (due to many reasons, like : US election & civil turmoil crisis & risk, long yields may suddenly rush towards 0%, USD reform, US-China economic war rapid escalation, etc.), then I begin to really see this unreal $BTC bull run is coming fast & furious.
I believe deflationary bust will eventually hit $BTC big time too, but it looks to me, $BTC will first surge to $100K (or more) before it may do a big deflationary-bust dump downwards 40-60%.
Inspired by PlanB's (FinTwit @100trillionUSD) $BTC Stock-to-Flow (S2F) chart & pattern, along with my own macro economics & geopolitics studies, and my own realization of a possible USD crisis (as well as USD reform) may soon emerge, the combination of all these along with my TA & EW skills, I can't help but to realize a huge unparalleled Bitcoin & crypto bull run is about to emerge.
After carefully studying the $BTC weekly log chart, I discovered many, almost predictable, patterns that may help narrow down to how high and approximately when $BTC may reach those price targets and may top in this coming bull run.
<< an explanation concerning the "1st triangle" in chart >>
Before I start, let me point out that, the oldest $BTC data I can get from TradingView is 2012 (from Bitstamp crypto exchange), yet, at Investing.com I'm able to get $BTC data all the way to 2010. So, the "1st Triangle" I drew in my TradingView chart is an "estimate" based on data I get from Investing.com
<< Chart & interesting patterns discoveries & explanations >>
(a)
Purple duration (purple date range indicators; horizontal) of triangles :
This counting goes from the first time $BTC reached from under touching the bottom (long red line) of a triangle to all the way the tip of the triangle where $BTC breaks out & above. We can see the progression went from 107 for the 1st triangle, then 227 for the 2nd triangle, then finally 347 for the 3rd triangle. It's with this progression, I speculate the next number (and length) for the 4th triangle can be something like 467.
(b)
It seems to me, 1st & 2nd Triangle can be in a "pair", and based on this wondering, I speculate there is a chance that 3rd & 4th Triangle may also be a "pair" as well; hence, some similarities may happen between these 2 pairs ....... and the biggest possible similarity I'm looking at is the "2-level hockey stick" rapid $BTC price surge.
Finding possible top of the 4th triangle
(c.1)
Green height increase (green price range indicators; vertical) of triangles :
This counting goes from previous triangle top to the current triangle top. 1st triangle height increase was about 4912%; 2nd triangle height increase was about 5118%; the difference between these 2 values are about 125%.
With 3rd triangle height increase being 1813%, if 4th triangle is a pair with the 3rd one (just like 1st & 2nd), then with extra 25% increase from the 3rd one's height increase range %value, there is a possibility the height increase of 4th triangle can be around 2260%, pointing to $450K to $500K (or more) being the possible ceiling of the 4th triangle.
(c.2)
I drew a long thick line (pink) and thick dotted lines (purple) that connected some tops; based on those lines, I also pointed out the possibility of where the top might be in the 4th triangle.
Finding possible bottom of the 4th triangle
(d.1)
Blue in-between triangle height range (blue price range indicators; vertical) .... This is to find the bottom of a triangle through "previous triangle top to the current triangle when price 1st time bouncing off of the current triangle bottom trend line" :
In this case, 318% led to 1st triangle bottom, then about 279% led to 2nd triangle bottom, and finally 216% led to 3rd triangle bottom. Difference between 318 (to 1st) & 279 (to 2nd) = 39; difference between 279 (to 2nd) & 216 (to 3rd) = 63. Then I wonder, what is the chance, the difference between 216 (to 3rd) and the "to 4th %value" may be something like 87 ?? If so, in that case, the "%value to 4th" can be around 129%; which means the bottom of the 4th triangle can be around $43K
(d.2)
Orange area 88.6% Fib level :
I drew fib level going from a triangle top backward to the previous triangle top in order to find out where the orange area of 88.6% fib level may be at different section. It looks to me, the previous 2 bottoms happened to be in the 88.6% fib level areas. So I wonder about the chance of the bottom of the 4th triangle might too fall in the area of 88.6% fib level that I drew in chart (counting from an approximate likely top of the 4th triangle).
- From a reverse fib level thinking perspective speaking, when the bottom of 4th triangle appears (in the future of course), this too may help determine if, at the time, the top of the 4th triangle has already appeared or not (and how high can it be).
<< Conclusion >>
Please keep in mind that, these are of course only speculations based on past patterns. But since many of these patterns seem almost "predictable", so I decided to pay attention to possible similar repeats as the 4th triangle will appear.
Many $BTC bears have argued that, there is no way $BTC can reach high price level like $100K or even $500K in the foreseeable future. I used to think like that too, but once after I discovered all these predictable $BTC patterns, along with realizing how close we are about to walk right into a USD crisis (due to many reasons, like : US election & civil turmoil crisis & risk, long yields may suddenly rush towards 0%, USD reform, US-China economic war rapid escalation, etc.), then I begin to really see this unreal $BTC bull run is coming fast & furious.
I believe deflationary bust will eventually hit $BTC big time too, but it looks to me, $BTC will first surge to $100K (or more) before it may do a big deflationary-bust dump downwards 40-60%.
Trade active:
<< What about the "3 circles pointing to "familiar?"" ??? >>
I'm right now waiting for $BTC to do a "major" correction, which happened in similar ways twice before (they got rejected from major resistance 1 last time right before punching through the ceiling for real), so I may go "all in" into $BTC and $XRP (as well as many other alt-coins like, XVG, RDD, ETN, etc.)
This fast approaching correction should be "major" in the context of falling from current price point down to around $13K-$14K (i.e. 30%+ correction)
But as you zoom out in the $BTC log chart, that correction really is "small", and it almost seems insignificant, especially compare to what is to come (the huge $BTC bull run).
I'm right now waiting for $BTC to do a "major" correction, which happened in similar ways twice before (they got rejected from major resistance 1 last time right before punching through the ceiling for real), so I may go "all in" into $BTC and $XRP (as well as many other alt-coins like, XVG, RDD, ETN, etc.)
This fast approaching correction should be "major" in the context of falling from current price point down to around $13K-$14K (i.e. 30%+ correction)
But as you zoom out in the $BTC log chart, that correction really is "small", and it almost seems insignificant, especially compare to what is to come (the huge $BTC bull run).