Short-term bullishness vs Long-term bearishness
Starting from big picture, my long term view for Gold, GDX (still in downtrend channel) doesn't change though we had a whole week of bull in Gold Miners!
Since 2011, GDXJ has been contained in downtrend channel like Gold. RSI indicator downtrend channel further enhance this fact. The picture does change abit when price hit channel bottom in Jun 2013 followed by another channel bottom in Dec 2013 to generate RSI bullish divergence. The attempt to move to channel top was rejected twice around 46.0 which was evidenced by the two failed break out in RSI. Subsequently, RSI uptrend line was broken and price continue its selling breaking below the ascending triangle.
RSI in 22 Sept 2014 shown a failed challenge to break above the uptrend channel(red region) thereby causing more vicious falls which happened to be a failure in support at 31. At this point volume is exceptionally showing 1st sign of despair in investors. Still price has not touched exactly the channel bottom, i can only anticipate that price will try to break 31.05 and if successful testing the resistance of ascending triangle as highlighted in the blue (also for RSI)
I would anticipate that ultimately if price fail either 31 or 37, it will fall into channel bottom around 18-19 in time to come with lesser volume showing that only pure smart money is in thereby creating yet another stronger bullish divergence in RSI
Since 2011, GDXJ has been contained in downtrend channel like Gold. RSI indicator downtrend channel further enhance this fact. The picture does change abit when price hit channel bottom in Jun 2013 followed by another channel bottom in Dec 2013 to generate RSI bullish divergence. The attempt to move to channel top was rejected twice around 46.0 which was evidenced by the two failed break out in RSI. Subsequently, RSI uptrend line was broken and price continue its selling breaking below the ascending triangle.
RSI in 22 Sept 2014 shown a failed challenge to break above the uptrend channel(red region) thereby causing more vicious falls which happened to be a failure in support at 31. At this point volume is exceptionally showing 1st sign of despair in investors. Still price has not touched exactly the channel bottom, i can only anticipate that price will try to break 31.05 and if successful testing the resistance of ascending triangle as highlighted in the blue (also for RSI)
I would anticipate that ultimately if price fail either 31 or 37, it will fall into channel bottom around 18-19 in time to come with lesser volume showing that only pure smart money is in thereby creating yet another stronger bullish divergence in RSI
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