I personally won't be entering this trade, but there exists a possible long position here. While not ideal in its width or height, apple looks like its coming out of a valid rounded bottom that formed from the beginning of 2016 until early march (the handle forms around march fourth). I've drawn the expected price movement for this formation (taken from the height of the formation which is the difference between the handle and the low point on the rounded bottom). As you can see, we're already midway through it - this is one reason I wont be buying.
The second is that the trend is still in place until proven otherwise - and the trend for apple is down. This downward trendline is in blue. Note - unlike some charts on this stock I have intentionally drawn it using the peaks in late July and in early November as opposed to drawing a sharper one that ignores July but touches in early November and in early December. I believe trendlines using two distinct peaks with better separation perform better. Using my trendline, apple has NOT reversed its trend. If I believed otherwise, I would certainly take a long position.
There are additional reasons I don't believe apple is a good long-term long position (though again, the bolder among you may be able to make a decent profit off its current upward move if you mind the second red trendline and your stops along the way up). Note, I've marked two significant gaps with red arrows. Gaps have a tendency to get filled, which in this case means a rather sharp decline in price.
Also, volume on this formation is NOT gaining strength but is actually declining as the stock price rises. Low volume on price movement does not bode well for a strong move upward, and convinces me further that we may not see the stock climb to the price target. It looks to me like the stock will struggle to pierce its downward sloping trendline.
Finally I'd note that RSI is oversold as well.
Again, I spent a good deal of time thinking about taking a position with the intention of exiting it around 112, but I trade risk-averse.
The second is that the trend is still in place until proven otherwise - and the trend for apple is down. This downward trendline is in blue. Note - unlike some charts on this stock I have intentionally drawn it using the peaks in late July and in early November as opposed to drawing a sharper one that ignores July but touches in early November and in early December. I believe trendlines using two distinct peaks with better separation perform better. Using my trendline, apple has NOT reversed its trend. If I believed otherwise, I would certainly take a long position.
There are additional reasons I don't believe apple is a good long-term long position (though again, the bolder among you may be able to make a decent profit off its current upward move if you mind the second red trendline and your stops along the way up). Note, I've marked two significant gaps with red arrows. Gaps have a tendency to get filled, which in this case means a rather sharp decline in price.
Also, volume on this formation is NOT gaining strength but is actually declining as the stock price rises. Low volume on price movement does not bode well for a strong move upward, and convinces me further that we may not see the stock climb to the price target. It looks to me like the stock will struggle to pierce its downward sloping trendline.
Finally I'd note that RSI is oversold as well.
Again, I spent a good deal of time thinking about taking a position with the intention of exiting it around 112, but I trade risk-averse.
