I have a love hate relationship with AAPL since 2006. I have made over $1 Million trading AAPL in 2 separate years, but it also blew me out in 2006. I remember that day like it was yesterday, this was the first time that AAPL sandbagged their Guidance after a great Quarter. The went from $91 to $99 and then to $81. I lost over $100,000 that day and blowout my account. I was also the biggest independent AAPL Market Maker from 2006-2009 in the World. As I write this, I do not have a position on right now. The has made a higher high and a lower low for the 6-8 days on the Daily, but this might actually set up a good time to get Short the with a tight stop. The daily pressure is strong, but if I see a bar on the daily I will get Short AAPL with a Stop above $556. This is a great risk to reward set-up but I am waiting for that bar to the downside first/
almost 50% of their business model is selling I Phones. I see a couple of problems for them. First is currency issues and that people in emerging markets will be looking for cheaper models from their competitors. 2nd is they desperately need something new to wow the market. Right now they have been purchasing their own stock so alot of this thrust is from that. I think your right this is setting up for a short play.
I think it's definitely time to go short on Apple. He may touch the top of the channel one more time before dropping. If you're in luck, it's a TTB formation. Start, lead point for the channel angle set, and off to the other side to bounce off the channel bottom. I also use the channel as a "get out signal" or a kind of built in "oops I was wrong". It doesn't take much of a channel break to see it was incorrect. On the other hand if it stays within the parameters of the channel it's probably a correct prediction. The red brush close to the last up move is an internal "angle pointer". See if your bear thoughts agree with mine...and we're both right.