TheChasm
Short

AAPL not so hot

BATS:AAPL   APPLE INC
422 12 3
I don't think Apple             deserves to be the largest company in the world anymore. Their technicals look like a bubble and so do their fundamentals. Apple             has done a great job at building their value and I believe they will retain a lot of value going forward; however, these last 5 years of massive growth have come primarily from 2-3 products ( Ipod             , Ipad, Iphone) and unless they can continue to be creative they will lose that market share. If you take a look at Apples R&D costs, you'll see that they are increasing excessively every year: http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/10/30/apples-research-development-costs-ballooned-32-in-2013-to-45b
Their revenue growth is not keeping up with their R&D cost growth and they haven't developed anything exciting in the last few years (just upgrades of old products). It is becoming more and more expensive to maintain all of these customers and without an exciting new product to release competitors will eat up their market share in a year or two.
The resistance you have I get, however AAPL is strong in fundamentals and the cup and handle is the best buy pattern in the market…historically it has the biggest gains…so if it does not break higher it could go down, but I doubt it unless the market in general goes down :)
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Where is this cup and handle? I don't even see a fully formed cup.. let alone a handle?
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http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_19381187.png?1390697383 Take a look at this, someone posted this on ST. Cup and handle being formed now.
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TheChasm arthur.greedys
I am not convinced...If this is a cup and handle, its not a very good one. It doesn't meet a lot of the specifications for that shape... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cup_and_handle#Important_characteristics
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TheChasm arthur.greedys
Go look up at cup and handle patter on google images. Nothing even closely resembles AAPL
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based on elliott waves, aapl is doing just fine, still bullish in the overall picture, just a natural point for consolidation on a bigger picture, we should be in a larger picture wave 5 and that is why you're seeing interest dropping along with negative signals. For trading purposes, we should hit some more bullishness after earnings. I'm anticipating aapl to hit around 600 before it hits yet another consolidation or pull back. We should keep seeing these types of distribution and pull back phases now that we're in a wave 5. Right now I'm leaning more towards a new higher high more than I am towards aapl bear market. The bear market is right around the corner (relatively speaking), but just not yet.
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techanalyst1 ThisTejas
This would be wave 3 of 5 underway? If so, that would mean new 52 week high followed by one pull back on it's way to a major top? Do you have a target price for this portion of wave 3?
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ThisTejas techanalyst1
around 600 +/- 5 is my initial target, subject to change once the current sub wave 4 bottom is confirmed
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techanalyst1 ThisTejas
On the wave count, Is the double bottom the start of wave one? If so could it be that what we finished wave five?
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ThisTejas techanalyst1
if you are referring to the double bottom at about 400 level, I counted that as waves 1 and 2, and currently, you can see the sub waves within wave 3 itself, we should still be in wave 4 within wave 3 until the start of wave 5 is confirmed. Just full disclosure, I have a gut feeling that there is a "hidden" degree of wave count in here somewhere that has not made itself obvious yet but we'll see it once the wave counts become more complicated later on. Until it actually reveals itself, I'm going with the wave count being currently in 5.3.4. NOTE: Some people are trying to make the point that 5 waves up was already completed and that we are actually in a large scale wave B right now, so it should not be 3 waves up, rather they think it is waves A, B, and C going up to complete the large wave B, I'm obviously not in that camp, but perfectly willing to keep my eyes peeled for it, just in case.
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