I light of the recent market decline, I thought to put $AAPL under varying strengths of technical lenses, looking for potential support levels.
First of all, standing on its own, the "Model" defined the following targets:
1 - TG-1 = 100.28 - 22 AUG 2015
2 - TG-Lo = 91.86 - 22 AUG 2015
3 - TG-Lox = 86.40 - 22 AUG 2015
4 - Watch Line = 79.11 - 22 AUG 2015
QUANT VS. QUAL TARGETS, FIBONACCI ORDERS & TRENCHES:
Above targets carry a vanishing probability of hit, starting with TG-1, which represents a quantitative target (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... etc.) compared to qualitative targets, such as the next three. Whereas a quantitative target is associated with past or future definition, it is also associated with mere retracements in the Fibonacci order not to exceed 0.618. In contrast, qualitative targets will tend to define reversals, that is Fibonacci reversals exceeding 0.618, and often reversing to Fibonacci extensions in the order of 1.272, 1.313, 1.414 or 1.618.
For this reason, I have also defined a probable Entrenchment if and once price were to rally and challenge the current market gravity once any of the QUAL-Targets (TG-Lo, TG-Lox, WL) were used as a reversal springboard. This overhead entrenchment is defined by a very narrow range: 131.26/132.79.
Aside the Predictive/Forecasting Model, and supportive of most of above targets, one can appreciate the near-alignment of TG-1 = 100.28 with a prior historical structural high at 100.72 right in 17 SEP 2012.
Similarly, TG-Lo = 91.86 comes in a near alignment with a prior, discreet structural high at 92.00 reach in 09 APR 2012.
These alignments between the Predictive/Forecasting Model and historical structures is likely to impose significant resistance to bears.
OCCULT GEOMETRY: NODE & NODULAR CORE:
As discussed several times before ( Google "node nodal core nodule nodular core 4xforecaster"), the presence of seemingly innocuous, discreet retracements within swing, often imposes support, resistance and define additional temporizing in subsequent price advances. Here, a large retracement defined between 100.72 and 55.01 offers a 50% point that comes in near alignment with the Predictive model's outer most tolerance level, a level which typically suggests that, if reached, further analysis would need to occur at 4-times the current timeframe (e.g.: M15 to H1, H1 to H4, ... etc.).
The alignment between the Nodal Core and the Watch Line is not predictive, but indicative of a need to augment timeframe (i.e.: lessen the sensitivity of the Predictive/Forecasting Model).
There is much more discussion to be had in . Above is simply a few technical markers worth heeding, as they tend to correlate structurally. A simpler reciprocal ab = cd symmetry could also be applied as shown in the chart, and one may have to consider the possibility of the classic Head & Shoulder development.
In any case, I tend to hold any personal directional sentiment and instead rely on the stand-alone "Model", whose targets have been defined above.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
As a follow through to the analysis posted in the comments below (See entire analysis here: http://bit.ly/1T3n1xO ), the following chart may be close to defining a support:
A break of the fine dashed blue line (pointed b the pink arrow) would invalidate the current bullish scenario.
Price remains on the bullish side of the 1-4 Line on the day $AAPL is selling debt:
Some might speculate that sell would allow buy-back ... Artificial demand on stock ... Look for incongruent rallying in the face of world-wide market softening.
WSJ Markets : "Carl Icahn Trims Stake in Apple"
via @WSJMoneyBeat on Twitter
Price continues to rise, tethered to the dashed arrow - 140.31 remains a probable target:
This is a major update for $AAPL, as Predictive/Forecasting Model remain on track to its lower qualitative target, TG-Lox = 86.40 and WL = 79.11, both defined last year, on 22 AUG 2015.
HOWEVER, Predictive/Forecasting Model warns of a PROBABLE bearish tack, with further projections as shown in this new updated chart (see EMP levels #4, #5 and #6):
For the time being, watch for the long-term support afforded by the dashed BLACK line (between the two BLACK arrows).
In terms of market geometries, a completion of a WW/Geo may be underway, with original targets and WL offering a probable interim support.
While a retracement may come thereafter, "Model" suggests a limited reaction of price, just as price did as it hits the prior targets (TG-1 and TG-Lo).
Also, a less-probable geometry awaits at a more abysmal level in the form of a proprietary JANUS Pattern, whose base in the 21.36 vicinity ... Quite improbable from the current levels, but one worth mentioning, since the Model is already pointing to abysmal levels, as shown above.
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
As per forecast released last Summer 2015 (22 AUG 2015), price continues to carve lower lows, bringing up 86.40 as the next bearish target, whereas significant support at 79.11 is expected:
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Price rallied to 109.xx ... Pre-market values (nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/premarket/) remain soft, with low of 109.00 tested, high of 109.79 receded - BACA > 112 remain possible, but might not be sufficient to turn bearish forecast from Predictive/Forecasting Model around:
Overall, bearish targets remain intact and in force.
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter.com)
Since last post when mention of a probable reversal would occur, price has remained subdued, with a new week's bar showing signs of weakness:
Predictive/Forecasting Model remains bearish, as per most recent mention.
CMT Affiliate #227974
- Follow me on TradingView: http://buff.ly/2bjFB35
Again, price may give off an apparent of continued buoyancy, but overall price action remains stagnant, with lower-lows being carved:
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
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The new $AAPL is not just missing a jack. It's also missing bulls, awe and the element of surprise:
Price carves a new lower-low; Forecast remains intact and in force:
Weeks sees a significant drop in price, moving fast in the forecast direction, as price continues to fall from the reversal level illustrated in the chart.
Targets at 86.40 and 79.11 remain intact and in force:
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)
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As you know, I am a MD. This means "narrow-minded scientist". No, really. And I say this, because I am simply not capable to see things outside of basic mechanics, basic organisms and basic cause/effects. The mechanics creates the skeletal FORM. The organisms creates the physiologic FUNCTION, whereas the cause/effects responds to the kinetics of that organism.
In nature, FORM follows FUNCTION, whereby organisms are advantaged to survive (i.e.: to FUNCTION) whenever endowed with features (i.e.: FORMS) that confer an advantage over other competing organisms, so that they may go on and live in a selectively survivalist environment (KINETICS of cause and effects).
In the same gist, I look at the market as a mechanistic environment, in which conditions are defined in terms of form (e.g.: The Geo's conditional rule defining its internal structures) and functions, whereby price that lays the skin around the organic structures, also vies for certain levels which it can not ignore, which is what the Predictive/Forecasting Model defines as quantitative and qualitative targets.
As you may already know by now, the Quant-Targets (e.g.: TG-1, TG-2, ..., TG-n) will tend to define levels from which price would simply retrace, but not reverse. By retracement, I am referring to fractional Fibonacci levels, in the order of 0.386, 0.500 and 0.618 for the most part. These numbers are CONTRACTION values, since they maintain a price action that recedes from the zero-to-100 range.
In contrast, Qual-Targets (e.g.: TG-Hi or TG-Hix and TG-Lo or TG-Lox) will tend to define levels from which price would likely reverse, and not just retrace. By reversal I am referring to Fibonacci levels in the order of 1.131, 1.272, 1.313, 1.414, 1.500 and 1.618. These numbers are EXPANSION values, since the price action reaches beyond the confines of the Fibonacci's zero-to-100 range.
So, I hope that as you continue to follow my analyses, you understand that I tend to not form opinions. I have developed and relied upon a very simple Predictive/Forecasting Model that reliably tells me the trend, strength and extent of the underlying market, in terms of future resistance/support levels via Quant-Targets, and also in terms of anticipated tip-top and bottom-tip reversals via Qual-Targets.
Hence, I never try to be right on my own, but instead to read and share what the Predictive/Forecasting Model interprets. This is why I will refer to this as the FOREGROUND feature of my analysis. However, this "tool" is NOT capable to predict the pathway, or mechanism, by which price will attain its forecast targets. For this reason, I have developed a BACKGROUND approach through the Geo, which is a rule-based geometry which provides very clear and succinct conditions, confining our anticipation to visible boundaries, which the trader can draw and rely upon.
With these two tools, plus simple wave counting, such as the example shared above with Wave Reduction ("Wave Redux"), I am simply laying down an argument that gives form and function to the analysis, so that it may survive the predatorial environment, which the financial market represents.
I hope this remains a sensible set of conditions to you, and that you will continue to follow my analyses in light of what I jut explained about me and my method - If this is valuable, curious or out-right weird, feel free to share. I have no services, products or sites to refer you and your trading colleagues to. Perhaps I would provide some courses in the future, as I have received a few requests, but your following me should simply not discount that this is really a free-share of lessons that may or may not help you in your trading habits and perception of the financial markets. Still, it is something I am very glad to share, so long as you keep the credit in authorship referenced - This, I would appreciate greatly.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
Now, for those familiar with the Geo, here is a first possibility (I mean to say "first", simply because there is a degree of complexity within the 2-3 Leg that is missing at this point, suggesting that Point-5 could thus be defined to loftier levels - But for now, let's simply look at the gist of the geometry, whose background construction might offer the mechanical reasoning for price to attain the foreground's target defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model - See chart below):
Note that we are constructing the Geo based on its internal construction rules:
1 - The Geo's 1-2 Leg is typically a reciprocal 1b = cd symmetry. To construct and project this symmetry, one has to first draw the c-d segment, such that d defines a nadir that is Point-2, and c represents a "nodule" (You can find more on this aspect of occult geometries if you Google the following expression: "David Alcindor 4xForecaster node nodule nodal nodular core"), or a level from which the symmetry can be achieved. From here, you will easily find point-b and use the height of the c-d segment and project backward from point-b. Now, the top of that a-b segment will either exceed of fall below a price spike. If above, then use the price pike below it as long as the 1-3 Line of the Geo retains a rising slope (in the case where the 1-3 Line is above the entire projected geometry, as in this case. In the inverse case, then the 1-3 Line should be declining, as the geometry would find itself above it, since Point-2 and Point-4 are the boundaries of the Geo). In the case where point-a of the ab = cd retrograde projection falls below a spike in price, then use that spike to rest point-a, and thus defining Point-1 of the Geo. In the most equivocal cases, the 1-3 Line could be a horizontal platform, but this would be a very rare event - Here is an illustration of the Geo's conditional 1-2 Leg internal construction:
2 - Next, check that the 1-3 Line respected the opposite boundaries of the entire geometry, by copying and pasting the 1-3 Line off of Point-2. I like to keep this in sight this early in the stage, as it guarantees a visual confirmation or infirmation of the eomtry. That is, if price crosses below this line, then the Geo becomes invalid. This is the tolerance line ("TL"), as drawn in the first chart above - Here it is again:
3 - Next is the 2-3 Leg. This leg demands a level of complexity in its formation which can be quite challenging this early in the stage of the Geo's development. For now, we will keep it simple, keeping Point-3 where is has been defined. However, in the majority of the cases, the Geo tends to create a false Point-3 by an intermediate zig-zag ("ZZ"), which is possibly what is occurring right now at between Point-3 and the presumed Point-4 position defined speculatively in the chart. In the original chart, this was the B-C connection, although I would lok into finer details and seek an alignment of the former A-C (now the assumed 2-4 Line of the Geo, until Point-4 is secured by a low in price with the condition that the TL line is not crossed, so as to maintain the Geo valid) - Hence, the projected internal geometry of the what would have been the 3-4 Leg is as follows:
Remember that the only reason we are tediously following this constructio based on strict rules is that we want to remain on the right side of the market, trading long when price is anticipated to rise, and short, when anticipated to decline. This being a 5-day bar chart was defined as such so as to remove the "vibratory sounds" of useless internal constructions, which would otherwise make these larger and more relevant moves less visible to the minds eyes. You could try to do this exercise yourself, and see whether a simpler Elliott Wave impulse (which only requires three bars at its minimum) can be achieved when scaling up from H1, H2, H3, H4, ... H8 all the way up to where a wave can be reduced to its skeletal structure.
For instance, an impulse made up of 30 some bars, some pertaining to the internal impulse of Waves 1, 3 and 5, and others pertaining to correction in waves 2 and 4 can be erased, or simply reduced to their minimal skeletal structure. Here is a series of reductions, using the exact same chart:
1 - ONE-WEEK WAVE REDUX:
2 -TWO-WEEK WAVE REDUX:
3 - THREE WEEK WAVE REDUX:
4 - FOUR WEEK WAVE REDUX:
Now, jumping forward into a larger granular level:
5 - EIGHT WEEK REDUX:
6 - 12-WEEK WAVE REDUX:
7 - 24-WEEK WAVE REDUX:
8 - 48-WEEK WAVE REDUX:
In essence, the wave reduction exercise would allow the trader to better define the nature of the underlying price action, relative to others. For instance, the largest wave reduction just shown suggests that price remains in a strong bullish impulse move with TWO important events:
1 - Corrections ("COR") are on the right side of the move, that is there are counter to the UP-swing that is the grand gist of the market for now, hence correction are going agains the larger trend, as it should be
2 - A subsequent correction is shallower than its preceding one, suggesting that bulls have leg.
Here is the illustration of these COR's:
In contrast to the corrections, now we turn to the impulses ("IMP") and make the following observations:
1 - The impulses are moving on the right side of the market, which remains bullish;
2 - The first IMP of the Geo has a height that has been exceeded by that of the second IMP. This plays out in line with the fact that the subsequent IMP was weaker in like of regained bullish strength, and this is now illustrated further in the IMP expression of stronger bulls:
This tedious exercise in Wave Reduction ("Wave Redux") is a very simple methodical and visual that allows the trader to decipher meaningul, but discreet internal events that would too easily escape the eyes until a degree of reduction that cleans the field of distractions. Waves within waves within waves are important for the Elliott Wave technician needing to count degrees, but in the most general sense, one should consider 2, perhaps 3 degree of precision and reduce the field upwards, so as to reveal the real intentions of the market.
I hope this has not been to tedious an exercise, and that it may be helpful to your own market analyses.
Given the dominant trend of the market,
1 - IMP = Constructed by ONE elongated bars in the direction of the market, flanked by two smaller bars on either sides
2 - COR = A smaller bar within range of TWO elongated bars on either of its sides.
Can We Make A Case For The Falling AAPL To Rise Back Higher Than Its Tree?
- May be.
First, let's appreciate the field and see what remains: A low-probability qualitative target (TG-Lox) after we successfully defined, forecast and hit on the head a high-probability quantitative target (TG-1), then a lower qualitative target (TG-Lo) - As you know by now, these targets fade in probability values, but increase the force of reversal - Much as an elastic would behave, in a way:
But, making abstraction of the field and looking simply at impulsive and corrective moves, we see that the following appears:
This simply reveals that we are likely dealing with that follows a 5th wave completion of a larger Elliott Wave system - However, the issue I have is that there are residual, unanswered wave potentials that may require this following expression in order to "rinse" the filed off of all of the "charged energy" which have gone into prior, incomplete symmetries:
So, in effect, we may be dealing with this entire geometry:
What I have decided to do is to pass the entire field into the Predictive/Forecasting Model and apply the Geo as a possible background geometry - Here is what we obtain:
First, the Geo completes all of its internal requirements so far, such that:
1 - 1-2 Leg emanates from a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry
2 - 2-3 Leg emanates from a complex Elliott Wave ZZ, such as a DZZ or DZZ, or in the case of it moving in the predominant direction (which is a big clue here as to the "unfinished" nature of the entire move), an impulse might emerge, such as the one illustrated in the shorter timeframes above.
Second, there is a significant level of resonance among the retracement, such that a 50% Fibonacci level helped sustain the ensuing decline following the impulse waves 3 and 5. However, what is not excluded is a completion into a larger correction, bringing price to the levels defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model, such that:
1 - TG-Hix = 140.31 - 08 SEP 2015
2 - WL = 153.24 - 08 SEP 2015
As mentioned before, these targets carry a much lower probability of attainment, but the highest force of repulsion.
OVERALL, here is what is a possible outcome, were we to consider the possibility of a rally to more august levels:
What we are taking into account here is the symmetry that is expressed not simply out of the internal reciprocal AB = CD expresion, but taking into consideration a preceding impulse that has the potential to "charge" the rally to a final leg by way of a total symmetry.
For the time being, we are dealing with this all too important, yet discreet COR, which is occurring at this moment as price is weaving its way down. It is the level at which this COR (highlighted in pink) decides to reverse that will offer the probability of price rallying to a higher high.
What we are looking for is an internal a-b-c or even a more complex ab = cd, with completion at less than 0.786-Fib of the total height of the COR. If this occurs, then beware of bulls.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA