$AAPL Seeks Technical Support | #forex #aapl #fibonacci #nasdaq
Friends,
I light of the recent market decline, I thought to put $AAPL under varying strengths of technical lenses, looking for potential support levels.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
First of all, standing on its own, the "Model" defined the following bearish targets:
1 - TG-1 = 100.28 - 22 AUG 2015
2 - TG-Lo = 91.86 - 22 AUG 2015
3 - TG-Lox = 86.40 - 22 AUG 2015
and
4 - Watch Line = 79.11 - 22 AUG 2015
QUANT VS. QUAL TARGETS, FIBONACCI ORDERS & BEARISH TRENCHES:
Above targets carry a vanishing probability of hit, starting with TG-1, which represents a quantitative target (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... etc.) compared to qualitative targets, such as the next three. Whereas a quantitative target is associated with past or future pivot definition, it is also associated with mere retracements in the Fibonacci order not to exceed 0.618. In contrast, qualitative targets will tend to define reversals, that is Fibonacci reversals exceeding 0.618, and often reversing to Fibonacci extensions in the order of 1.272, 1.313, 1.414 or 1.618.
For this reason, I have also defined a probable Bearish Entrenchment if and once price were to rally and challenge the current market gravity once any of the QUAL-Targets (TG-Lo, TG-Lox, WL) were used as a reversal springboard. This overhead bearish entrenchment is defined by a very narrow range: 131.26/132.79.
STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS:
Aside the Predictive/Forecasting Model, and supportive of most of above targets, one can appreciate the near-alignment of TG-1 = 100.28 with a prior historical structural high at 100.72 right in 17 SEP 2012.
Similarly, TG-Lo = 91.86 comes in a near alignment with a prior, discreet structural high at 92.00 reach in 09 APR 2012.
These alignments between the Predictive/Forecasting Model and historical structures is likely to impose significant resistance to bears.
OCCULT GEOMETRY: NODE & NODULAR CORE:
As discussed several times before (Google "node nodal core nodule nodular core 4xforecaster"), the presence of seemingly innocuous, discreet retracements within swing, often imposes support, resistance and define additional temporizing pivots in subsequent price advances. Here, a large retracement defined between 100.72 and 55.01 offers a 50% point that comes in near alignment with the Predictive model's outer most tolerance level, a level which typically suggests that, if reached, further analysis would need to occur at 4-times the current timeframe (e.g.: M15 to H1, H1 to H4, ... etc.).
The alignment between the Nodal Core and the Watch Line is not predictive, but indicative of a need to augment timeframe (i.e.: lessen the sensitivity of the Predictive/Forecasting Model).
OVERALL:
There is much more discussion to be had in technical analysis. Above is simply a few technical markers worth heeding, as they tend to correlate structurally. A simpler reciprocal ab = cd symmetry could also be applied as shown in the chart, and one may have to consider the possibility of the classic Head & Shoulder development.
In any case, I tend to hold any personal directional sentiment and instead rely on the stand-alone "Model", whose targets have been defined above.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----
.
I light of the recent market decline, I thought to put $AAPL under varying strengths of technical lenses, looking for potential support levels.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
First of all, standing on its own, the "Model" defined the following bearish targets:
1 - TG-1 = 100.28 - 22 AUG 2015
2 - TG-Lo = 91.86 - 22 AUG 2015
3 - TG-Lox = 86.40 - 22 AUG 2015
and
4 - Watch Line = 79.11 - 22 AUG 2015
QUANT VS. QUAL TARGETS, FIBONACCI ORDERS & BEARISH TRENCHES:
Above targets carry a vanishing probability of hit, starting with TG-1, which represents a quantitative target (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... etc.) compared to qualitative targets, such as the next three. Whereas a quantitative target is associated with past or future pivot definition, it is also associated with mere retracements in the Fibonacci order not to exceed 0.618. In contrast, qualitative targets will tend to define reversals, that is Fibonacci reversals exceeding 0.618, and often reversing to Fibonacci extensions in the order of 1.272, 1.313, 1.414 or 1.618.
For this reason, I have also defined a probable Bearish Entrenchment if and once price were to rally and challenge the current market gravity once any of the QUAL-Targets (TG-Lo, TG-Lox, WL) were used as a reversal springboard. This overhead bearish entrenchment is defined by a very narrow range: 131.26/132.79.
STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS:
Aside the Predictive/Forecasting Model, and supportive of most of above targets, one can appreciate the near-alignment of TG-1 = 100.28 with a prior historical structural high at 100.72 right in 17 SEP 2012.
Similarly, TG-Lo = 91.86 comes in a near alignment with a prior, discreet structural high at 92.00 reach in 09 APR 2012.
These alignments between the Predictive/Forecasting Model and historical structures is likely to impose significant resistance to bears.
OCCULT GEOMETRY: NODE & NODULAR CORE:
As discussed several times before (Google "node nodal core nodule nodular core 4xforecaster"), the presence of seemingly innocuous, discreet retracements within swing, often imposes support, resistance and define additional temporizing pivots in subsequent price advances. Here, a large retracement defined between 100.72 and 55.01 offers a 50% point that comes in near alignment with the Predictive model's outer most tolerance level, a level which typically suggests that, if reached, further analysis would need to occur at 4-times the current timeframe (e.g.: M15 to H1, H1 to H4, ... etc.).
The alignment between the Nodal Core and the Watch Line is not predictive, but indicative of a need to augment timeframe (i.e.: lessen the sensitivity of the Predictive/Forecasting Model).
OVERALL:
There is much more discussion to be had in technical analysis. Above is simply a few technical markers worth heeding, as they tend to correlate structurally. A simpler reciprocal ab = cd symmetry could also be applied as shown in the chart, and one may have to consider the possibility of the classic Head & Shoulder development.
In any case, I tend to hold any personal directional sentiment and instead rely on the stand-alone "Model", whose targets have been defined above.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----
.
Comment:
16 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note / News:
Price remains on the bullish side of the 1-4 Line on the day $AAPL is selling debt:
Some might speculate that sell would allow buy-back ... Artificial demand on stock ... Look for incongruent rallying in the face of world-wide market softening.
Best,
David Alcindor
Price remains on the bullish side of the 1-4 Line on the day $AAPL is selling debt:
Some might speculate that sell would allow buy-back ... Artificial demand on stock ... Look for incongruent rallying in the face of world-wide market softening.
Best,
David Alcindor
Comment:
16 FEB 2016 - News:
WSJ Markets : "Carl Icahn Trims Stake in Apple"
on.wsj.com/1Q02CJc
via @WSJMoneyBeat on Twitter
WSJ Markets : "Carl Icahn Trims Stake in Apple"
on.wsj.com/1Q02CJc
via @WSJMoneyBeat on Twitter
Comment:
02 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price continues to rise, tethered to the dashed arrow - 140.31 remains a probable target:
Best,
David Alcindor
Price continues to rise, tethered to the dashed arrow - 140.31 remains a probable target:
Best,
David Alcindor
Comment:
22 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
This is a major update for $AAPL, as Predictive/Forecasting Model remain on track to its lower qualitative target, TG-Lox = 86.40 and WL = 79.11, both defined last year, on 22 AUG 2015.
HOWEVER, Predictive/Forecasting Model warns of a PROBABLE bearish tack, with further projections as shown in this new updated chart (see EMP levels #4, #5 and #6):
For the time being, watch for the long-term support afforded by the dashed BLACK line (between the two BLACK arrows).
In terms of market geometries, a completion of a WW/Geo may be underway, with original targets and WL offering a probable interim support.
While a retracement may come thereafter, "Model" suggests a limited reaction of price, just as price did as it hits the prior targets (TG-1 and TG-Lo).
Also, a less-probable geometry awaits at a more abysmal level in the form of a proprietary JANUS Pattern, whose base in the 21.36 vicinity ... Quite improbable from the current levels, but one worth mentioning, since the Model is already pointing to abysmal levels, as shown above.
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
This is a major update for $AAPL, as Predictive/Forecasting Model remain on track to its lower qualitative target, TG-Lox = 86.40 and WL = 79.11, both defined last year, on 22 AUG 2015.
HOWEVER, Predictive/Forecasting Model warns of a PROBABLE bearish tack, with further projections as shown in this new updated chart (see EMP levels #4, #5 and #6):
For the time being, watch for the long-term support afforded by the dashed BLACK line (between the two BLACK arrows).
In terms of market geometries, a completion of a WW/Geo may be underway, with original targets and WL offering a probable interim support.
While a retracement may come thereafter, "Model" suggests a limited reaction of price, just as price did as it hits the prior targets (TG-1 and TG-Lo).
Also, a less-probable geometry awaits at a more abysmal level in the form of a proprietary JANUS Pattern, whose base in the 21.36 vicinity ... Quite improbable from the current levels, but one worth mentioning, since the Model is already pointing to abysmal levels, as shown above.
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment:
26 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
As per forecast released last Summer 2015 (22 AUG 2015), price continues to carve lower lows, bringing up 86.40 as the next bearish target, whereas significant support at 79.11 is expected:
Regards,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
As per forecast released last Summer 2015 (22 AUG 2015), price continues to carve lower lows, bringing up 86.40 as the next bearish target, whereas significant support at 79.11 is expected:
Regards,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment:
22 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price rallied to 109.xx ... Pre-market values (nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/premarket/) remain soft, with low of 109.00 tested, high of 109.79 receded - BACA > 112 remain possible, but might not be sufficient to turn bearish forecast from Predictive/Forecasting Model around:
Overall, bearish targets remain intact and in force.
Best,
David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter.com)
Price rallied to 109.xx ... Pre-market values (nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/premarket/) remain soft, with low of 109.00 tested, high of 109.79 receded - BACA > 112 remain possible, but might not be sufficient to turn bearish forecast from Predictive/Forecasting Model around:
Overall, bearish targets remain intact and in force.
Best,
David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter.com)
Comment:
25 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Since last post when mention of a probable reversal would occur, price has remained subdued, with a new week's bar showing signs of weakness:
Predictive/Forecasting Model remains bearish, as per most recent mention.
Best regard,
David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster
- Follow me on TradingView: buff.ly/2bjFB35
Since last post when mention of a probable reversal would occur, price has remained subdued, with a new week's bar showing signs of weakness:
Predictive/Forecasting Model remains bearish, as per most recent mention.
Best regard,
David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster
- Follow me on TradingView: buff.ly/2bjFB35
Comment:
03 SEP 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Again, price may give off an apparent of continued buoyancy, but overall price action remains stagnant, with lower-lows being carved:
Regards,
David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
--------
Signal Service Provider
CROW Code Instructor
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Again, price may give off an apparent of continued buoyancy, but overall price action remains stagnant, with lower-lows being carved:
Regards,
David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
--------
Signal Service Provider
CROW Code Instructor
--------
Comment:
07 SEP 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
The new $AAPL is not just missing a jack. It's also missing bulls, awe and the element of surprise:
Best,
David Alcindor
The new $AAPL is not just missing a jack. It's also missing bulls, awe and the element of surprise:
Best,
David Alcindor
Comment:
08 SEP 2016 - Chart Update:
Price carves a new lower-low; Forecast remains intact and in force:
David Alcindor
Price carves a new lower-low; Forecast remains intact and in force:
David Alcindor
Comment:
09 SEP 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Weeks sees a significant drop in price, moving fast in the forecast direction, as price continues to fall from the reversal level illustrated in the chart.
Targets at 86.40 and 79.11 remain intact and in force:
Best,
David Alcindor
Weeks sees a significant drop in price, moving fast in the forecast direction, as price continues to fall from the reversal level illustrated in the chart.
Targets at 86.40 and 79.11 remain intact and in force:
Best,
David Alcindor
As a follow through to the analysis posted in the comments below (See entire analysis here: bit.ly/1T3n1xO ), the following chart may be close to defining a support:
A break of the fine dashed blue line (pointed b the pink arrow) would invalidate the current bullish scenario.
Best,
David Alcindor