Vertical dotted lines referred to week of ER
Financial and performances varied widely, I reported the weekly gains (from the day of ER to Friday of that week), as well as monthly (to 3rd Friday of that month), to capture performances on weekly and monthly options.
As you can see here, performances is not what it seems. Often, trend don't always continue. On weekly data, performances ranged from -14.4% to 7.6%, and on the monthly, ranged from -13.8% to 16.9%. Also depends on the months, some have 3, some have 4 Fridays following the ER.
Based on previously data, what I want to point out is that:
(1) on the Weeklies, the highest gain is about 7%, which will lead us to $565 range, the lowest is -13%, or $455s.
(2) on the Monthlies, the highest gain is about 12% (adjusted for having only 3 Fridays following ER), or 9.9%
I think the biggest surprise here is the Guidance. Guidance will give us clue about China Mobile deal (if not announced). If Guidance is exceptional, we would see 600+ range (but highly doubtful).
I would suggest caution heading into the ER. The implied is high. High premium is making option plays extremely risks on long and short.