Increase your short term odds entering a position

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I was looking to short $AAPL             for a scalp by buying puts. I bought 5 435 weekly puts at the time shown by the red arrows.
Watching the MACD slope for a change in sign alerts that a reversal might be coming. A 5 min chart works well for fast-moving stocks, while 7 or 10 minutes will give fewer false alarms. In this case it WAS a false alarm, but there was another reversal with the same signals a few minutes later, so I averaged down at the second reversal candle at 4.33.

Decision points on the way:
- MACD crossover is stronger confirmation of the signal. In this case I sold my average down position just after the crossover, leaving my original buy intact, and having a much lower average entry price.
- Another change in the slope of the MACD . I exited the first trade just after this event, and locked in 12% total profits in 1 hour.

Having a high RSI and MFI increases the odds of the play working.
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