AAPL 8/19/2013 EOD Analysis

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The past and the near future.

Last week, fueled by the Sept 10 product announcement rumor and Icahn's bullish view on AAPL             , AAPL             broke through the bullish channel zone 1, into a new bullish channel (zone 2), and establishing firmly in it. This is supported by heavy volumes, even on monthly OpEx. It has been stronger and more resilient than I have anticipated, especially when compared to other NASDAQ stocks and S&P 500             in general. I consider zone 2 to be extreme bullish .

Today, the resistance level #1 @ 514 was challenged, but rejected. We will try again tomorrow or later in the week. Looking ahead, other major resistances are at $553 and $593. Assuming that we continue in the projected zone 2 uptrend, we expect to hit $525-$540 range by Sept 10. Keep in mind the old saying, "Buy on rumor, Sell on news," I expect that AAPL             will break down into the zone 1 support area shortly after the official announcement (more downside if there is any disappointment). I anticipate that by Sept monthly OpEx, the stock price should recovery a little, and re-establish itself in the upper middle of zone 1 area ($530 +/- $5).

There are couple of wild cards in this game:
(1) China Mobile deal. If this becomes approved in the near future, it may keep us in the Zone 2.
(2) Finger print sensors. There was a rumor that iPhone may be delayed because of shortage of finger print sensors. This will send us down toward the lower end of Zone 1.
(3) iWatch. Not many analysts are expecting release of iWatch during this launch, however, if for whatever miracles that it becomes released, I expect that will keep us in the Zone 2.

Stayed tuned.

I am Bullish on AAPL            
3 years ago
BTO Oct $530 calls at $13.95 on 8/19
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