darcy kincaid

Apple Upside breakout

BATS:AAPL   APPLE INC
461 7 0
Strong product lines, and a hoard of cash are factors in Apple's favor. Recent announcement to pay dividend will impact bottom line but not to any worrisome degree. Fundamentally a very strong company and a current favorite of investors and well-capitalized traders alike.

From a technical standpoint, the recent breakout to the upside has positioned AAPL             for a second parabolic move that could easily propel it to 1000 ish             territory. However, this is not a sure thingl by any means yet.

The chart identifies a current LT             Swing Short that is still being sold and will act as resistance to a sustained advance until the short range is definitively broken. This could be accomplished in a few days or weeks, or may never happen, Our analysis favors an eventual resumption of the uptrend and a significant new high before the end of year. All technical factors on the chart support this conclusion, in our opinion. Of course, changing circumstances can alter this analysis, but it will take a significant event to do so.

On the short side, the second short range identified on the chart is an intermediate short entry range. Even if this range is reached and reacted to, we do not expect it to reach it's target but rather to produce a limited retrace counter-trend trade. Time will tell.

Trade the chart and trade safe.
Bought AAPL at 690. What is the reasonable target from long term investment standpoint?
Reply
How Long Term do you mean? Months, years, or decade?

Our analysis still favors the 3rd Target identified on the chart in the case of a breakout of the LT Swing Short identified on the chart. IF AAPL is able to close above the LT Swing Short failure level, this will occasion an extended short covering reaction which could easily propel AAPL to the 3rd target in a matter of days, in our opinion. Still a big IF at this point, but certainly doable as AAPL has demonstrated on many occasions in the past.

Note that price action is in a compression zone as the longs are attempting to sucker in more shorts and the shorts are attempting to sucker in more longs. Typical market behavior for this scenario. Huge Huge level here, in our opinion. The second red box is the next Short Term Aggressive Short area which will be sold by very aggressive short traders and price/volume will be closely watched if a breakout occurs.

The alternate scenario is that the LT Swing Short holds at this time and another ST pullback ensues. Always must seriously consider the other side and have tight loss prevention measures in place, in our opinion.

As a heads-up, if AAPL doesn't reach 702.50, it will retest today's low(an Aggressive Intraday Long entry area) and quite possibly fail down to the next long entry area. At this moment it is being stopped in it's tracks by an Intraday Short.

IF you have initiated a new Long Term long position at 690 in AAPL stock,(great entry by the way), you must have nerves of steel, a finely-developed risk appetite, or a very large account. Or maybe all three. :-) We would only initiate a new long at this level by means of options.
Reply
charttrader PRO darcy kincaid
4 years ago
Thank you for the reply. That was a perfect analysis! Long term i mean 6-18 months. Do you have an update on AAPL considering the current price?
Reply
darcy kincaid PRO charttrader
4 years ago
Last week we identified the current entries and targets and will try to publish an update that reflects these as time permits. Everyone still watching the possible classic H&S formation.
Reply
$200 retrace so far from this published chart. We always advise our clients LT in trend, ST counter-trend. Our published charts illustrate the profitability of following this model. 1st intermediate target of LT Swing Short has reached to the penny and predictably has reacted with a retrace. Possible huge H&S pattern attempting to form.
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