Greetings friends, traders, everyone....
Oh ADA. One tough nut to crack! I have thus far stayed out of Cardano, not only because my preferred broker does not offer Cardano futures, but also because I will be honest - this one has kept me somewhat stumped for a while.
Now, in my last analysis, we observed Cardano begin a retracement from it's move from about 1050 to 1900 satoshi. I had hoped, we would see it reverse around the 50% - 62%, or at least, the 79% retracements. No such luck.
Cardano has continued to fall, like a rock, straight through all retracement levels. Maybe I was just looking, not far enough in the past. In any case, this analysis has been deeply revised. I see a promising reaction here coming off a TD9 buy signal on the daily chart, and right upon entering the .382 timezone! Very good for Cardano...this tells me that, potentially on a macro level, we can still consider ADA to be in an uptrend, simply with very very strong corrections. Hey, its a speculative market right?!
Now, if our analysis here proves right, I believe that we will continue a small retracement from the impulse wave sparked at about 910 satoshi, which took us to a rejection at 1200. Fib time zones clued us into, the retracement having a smaller corrective wave within it (outlined on the 4 hour chart, by the 0.618 Fib Time zone from the wave up).
So, I see three potential scenarios. I have marked 2 of them on the chart. First, we can drop now in the 1.618 time zone to a 62% - 79% retracement (975 - 1025 area), where we can look to buy. This is marked by the yellow arrow.
Second, we can see a fakeout wave up here, and bounce down from the fib channel above (at 1150), THEN get our retracement to 975 - 1025. This is marked by the orange dotted curve. Both of these scenarios take us to a lovely buy entry #1 at 1025, and a second entry at 975. This entry would give us a TARGET 1 of 1300 at the 127% extension, which is also the top of the next fib channel up.
The third scenario is quite sad, where we see Cardano fall yet again, down out of the new (hopefully valid) fibonacci uptrend, and die a slow agonizing death somewhere down below 900 sats. That would be ugly, and it would probably be a while before I considered catching the knife on ADA.
A fourth alternative scenario of course, is that we shoot straight up from here, still targeting 1300, because yes, we did technically test the 50% retracement. I trusted this idea last time enough to post it, and it was very, very wrong.
Now, if we do spark a new impulse wave up after a retrace, I expect it to begin somewhere around the 2.618 Fib time zone, at which point I have put another possible time zone trend measurement, giving us a rough date for our 1300 target, around May 23. But, time is just hard to say, as we all know =D
Our stop loss for any long trade should be 900 satoshi. Below that, things just get ugly.
Good luck, traders!
Previous Analysis:
Oh ADA. One tough nut to crack! I have thus far stayed out of Cardano, not only because my preferred broker does not offer Cardano futures, but also because I will be honest - this one has kept me somewhat stumped for a while.
Now, in my last analysis, we observed Cardano begin a retracement from it's move from about 1050 to 1900 satoshi. I had hoped, we would see it reverse around the 50% - 62%, or at least, the 79% retracements. No such luck.
Cardano has continued to fall, like a rock, straight through all retracement levels. Maybe I was just looking, not far enough in the past. In any case, this analysis has been deeply revised. I see a promising reaction here coming off a TD9 buy signal on the daily chart, and right upon entering the .382 timezone! Very good for Cardano...this tells me that, potentially on a macro level, we can still consider ADA to be in an uptrend, simply with very very strong corrections. Hey, its a speculative market right?!
Now, if our analysis here proves right, I believe that we will continue a small retracement from the impulse wave sparked at about 910 satoshi, which took us to a rejection at 1200. Fib time zones clued us into, the retracement having a smaller corrective wave within it (outlined on the 4 hour chart, by the 0.618 Fib Time zone from the wave up).
So, I see three potential scenarios. I have marked 2 of them on the chart. First, we can drop now in the 1.618 time zone to a 62% - 79% retracement (975 - 1025 area), where we can look to buy. This is marked by the yellow arrow.
Second, we can see a fakeout wave up here, and bounce down from the fib channel above (at 1150), THEN get our retracement to 975 - 1025. This is marked by the orange dotted curve. Both of these scenarios take us to a lovely buy entry #1 at 1025, and a second entry at 975. This entry would give us a TARGET 1 of 1300 at the 127% extension, which is also the top of the next fib channel up.
The third scenario is quite sad, where we see Cardano fall yet again, down out of the new (hopefully valid) fibonacci uptrend, and die a slow agonizing death somewhere down below 900 sats. That would be ugly, and it would probably be a while before I considered catching the knife on ADA.
A fourth alternative scenario of course, is that we shoot straight up from here, still targeting 1300, because yes, we did technically test the 50% retracement. I trusted this idea last time enough to post it, and it was very, very wrong.
Now, if we do spark a new impulse wave up after a retrace, I expect it to begin somewhere around the 2.618 Fib time zone, at which point I have put another possible time zone trend measurement, giving us a rough date for our 1300 target, around May 23. But, time is just hard to say, as we all know =D
Our stop loss for any long trade should be 900 satoshi. Below that, things just get ugly.
Good luck, traders!
Previous Analysis:
Comment:
looks like bitcoin picked scenario #1 for us =P
Comment:
ADA looks ripe for a reversal here
