Trying to time a good short entry is one of the trickiest tasks we face as a scalper. This task is made a little less stressful if we already have an in-profit long entry by the time price reaches the potential 'shorting zone'. If you get your first 'light' short entry but price reverses and continues up, then great, you are making more on your long than your short so why should you care? Plus you'll get an even better short entry now, so it's all good.
APE may present us with an opportunity to put this into practice over the next few hours. I don't trade triangles, wedges, flags, pennants or any other mainstream technical analysis indicators. I trade market maker manipulation and he has just shown his hand on APE. There is no way to predict when he will strike but once he strikes the evidence of his trickery is clear to see on the charts. The long green wick on my 15 minute chart shows us that there are longs trapped above $3.90. We have no way of knowing how many are trapped but we do know from experience that he will not release them any time soon. He will very likely spend some more time back up there to trap more moonboys long (we are trading APE after all) and that is where we will be presented with an opportunity to enter a short trade.
As always, scalping is a dynamic craft so we readily accept that the price can just keep going up and that is where you will have your own method of handling that scenario. If it happens, then I would probably take a small loss on any shorts at $4 and let my longs ride until I see another opportunity to go short.
APE may present us with an opportunity to put this into practice over the next few hours. I don't trade triangles, wedges, flags, pennants or any other mainstream technical analysis indicators. I trade market maker manipulation and he has just shown his hand on APE. There is no way to predict when he will strike but once he strikes the evidence of his trickery is clear to see on the charts. The long green wick on my 15 minute chart shows us that there are longs trapped above $3.90. We have no way of knowing how many are trapped but we do know from experience that he will not release them any time soon. He will very likely spend some more time back up there to trap more moonboys long (we are trading APE after all) and that is where we will be presented with an opportunity to enter a short trade.
As always, scalping is a dynamic craft so we readily accept that the price can just keep going up and that is where you will have your own method of handling that scenario. If it happens, then I would probably take a small loss on any shorts at $4 and let my longs ride until I see another opportunity to go short.
Comment:
They have painted a double top on the hourly chart so we have to be patient and wait for a 3rd hit to the high. I don't know about you, but I never take short trades based on a double top. Just out of interest, take a look at the 1hr chart on Jasmy. You will see it made a triple top and price is now starting to drop. Notice that the third peak was just a bit higher than the 2nd. The price action on APE and Jasmy has been similar on this push higher so it will be interesting to find out if Jasmy will give us some clues as to what may happen with APE over the next few hours.
Comment:
Even though this trade seems to be going according to plan, I have decided not short APE at this level because of price action on the big boys BTC and ETH plus many sh1tcoins. They are up to something and I do not like it. I doubt very much that APE or any other assets will drop between now and the New York open. Just be careful if you are opening new trades at this time.
Comment:
At this time of the day it is common for them to paint a wick to the high followed soon afterwards by a wick to the low (or the other way around). I believe we have already had the wick to the high on APE and now expect a drop then a snapback to give us the wick to the low. This acts as a narrow range up until two hours before the New York open when the volatility (manipulation) usually starts. None of this is a problem if you are long SPOT but it is a problem if you are short and subject to interest for every hour that your trade is active.
Comment:
So, an interesting development. Both BTC and ETH pumped in the last hour but APE did not go above the white line on the chart. It seems like they really do not want to give those trapped longs a chance to close their trades at break even or even a small loss. They could easily have taken APE higher along with BTC and ETH - but they didn't. If this was the start of my trading day then I would be very tempted to short APE here, but I'm getting towards the end of my day and the NY open is approaching so I'll wait to see what happens over the next 3 hours.
Comment:
As I do not use stop losses, I decided not to take the short trade on APE after watching the New York open - which was 9pm for me in Asia and 9am in New York. Things look very interesting this morning and I have had a quick look around at BTC, ETH and some sh1tcoins. I believe they prefer higher prices and we will see APE go to the very top of the wick of the green candle at $4.050
This puts us traders in a position whereby our decision on prices going higher or lower becomes 50/50 and any trade would be a gamble. It places the market maker in an ideal position to do what he does best - trick, trap and manipulate traders. I call this a Manipulation zone and I believe we will be heading there over the next few to several hours.
Price is currently dropping and I have just added to my longs at $3.930. I will once again add to my longs at $3.905 but that will be the last one. If price drops below $3.895 then I will close my longs - some in profit and recent ones at a small loss. Once again, I will re-evaluate as this very interesting trade progresses.
This puts us traders in a position whereby our decision on prices going higher or lower becomes 50/50 and any trade would be a gamble. It places the market maker in an ideal position to do what he does best - trick, trap and manipulate traders. I call this a Manipulation zone and I believe we will be heading there over the next few to several hours.
Price is currently dropping and I have just added to my longs at $3.930. I will once again add to my longs at $3.905 but that will be the last one. If price drops below $3.895 then I will close my longs - some in profit and recent ones at a small loss. Once again, I will re-evaluate as this very interesting trade progresses.
Comment:
Quick update: this is moving fast. Everything is screaming SHORT and that is why I have decided to not close my longs and I intent to add to them at $3.862 and $3.875 - if we reach there. Please do not let my trading style prevent you from going short here if you believe prices will continue to drop.
Comment:
Cool - it has bounced and gives us a little time to think.
My guess is that the majority of traders that weren't short already have gone short in the last two hours. I have added to my longs and am sticking with my belief that they will take this higher from here. Looking at my 15 minute chart I see a lot of red candles over the last two hours. You will almost certainly look at things differently, but here's what I see:
The market maker enticed traders to go long with a big green candle up to $3.99 but then quickly snapped it back. With full knowledge of exactly where all the stop losses and liquidation points are for those long traders he proceeded to drop price down quite aggressively to take them all out. The sight of all the red candles on the chart will have enticed many traders to go short. He knows where their stop losses and liquidation points are too - so what do you think he is going to do now?
My guess is that the majority of traders that weren't short already have gone short in the last two hours. I have added to my longs and am sticking with my belief that they will take this higher from here. Looking at my 15 minute chart I see a lot of red candles over the last two hours. You will almost certainly look at things differently, but here's what I see:
The market maker enticed traders to go long with a big green candle up to $3.99 but then quickly snapped it back. With full knowledge of exactly where all the stop losses and liquidation points are for those long traders he proceeded to drop price down quite aggressively to take them all out. The sight of all the red candles on the chart will have enticed many traders to go short. He knows where their stop losses and liquidation points are too - so what do you think he is going to do now?
Comment:
True to form, they have taken price higher. They are currently taking out the stop losses and liquidation points of those traders that fell for the trickery of multiple red candles and went short too early. The clue that it was a trap was in how fast they dropped price around the $3.89 level.
It's too early to say that traders are trapped short here as they may very well be happy with what they have accomplished and head back down. We may get a better understanding around the $3.98 to $4 level where they will either wick up to just above $4 - a key whole number where traders will have set orders to go long or they will take us up into that manipulation zone around $4.040 where they will likely stall and go sideways for a while. Lets see.
It's too early to say that traders are trapped short here as they may very well be happy with what they have accomplished and head back down. We may get a better understanding around the $3.98 to $4 level where they will either wick up to just above $4 - a key whole number where traders will have set orders to go long or they will take us up into that manipulation zone around $4.040 where they will likely stall and go sideways for a while. Lets see.
Comment:
Many times a scalp can turn into a swing trade but this one is in danger of turning into a HODL ;-)
The reason to go short has long passed. I have just closed my longs at $1.49 and have moved onto my next trade. If nothing else, this trade proved the point that it is always a good idea to build a few longs before you reach the 'shorting zone'.
The reason to go short has long passed. I have just closed my longs at $1.49 and have moved onto my next trade. If nothing else, this trade proved the point that it is always a good idea to build a few longs before you reach the 'shorting zone'.