H&S vs. Double Bottom!

FX:AUDCAD   Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar
107 0 12
We have reached a Pivot Support Level @ 0.9175.
Here the likelihood of a temorarily Double Bottom is given.
I Thinks a shortterm recorvery is a realistic assumption.
1. The Pair closed several days out of its Bollinger Bands , statistically thats not "normal"
2. The RSI ist diving into the buying Zone, but there is no buying Signal yet. At the Low at 0.9175, the RSI should generate a new Signal.
3. This level @ 0.9175 is the major Support, the LOW from 01.08. 2013             - this is the Level to watch!

Because many market participants see that Szenario and try to anticipate it, i exspect a shortterm up-wave back to the broken neckline. Here the desicion will be made!

Double Bottom Szenario: The Pair can Close sustainable above 0.94. Then a TP at the downtrends upper edge at 0.978 is thinkable
S&H-Szenario: The Pair lasts below 0.94, the neckline. Then i exspect a further selloff to the mentioned H&S Targets (0.9066/0.8440)
Prices below 0.9175 will tighten the downwave and accelerate the downswing.

Red arrows: Preferred Szenario
Grey: Alternative Szenario

Former idea: