*Both gold and oil can fall down, and both oil and gold can go up. Which one will move faster than the other in the same direction? looking at a pair chart of AUD/CAD will never tell you whether or not gold or oil is going up or down!!! They both can be falling down, but AUD the Australian Dollar will LOOK like it is strong, but it is not. And, if you do not understand this, then do not put your money forward into the abyss! this is gambling, not trading.
I do not claim to be smart, nor a genius, nor some god-like guru or a financial authority, selling blind "technical signals" ("which can be applied to ANY financial instrument" as the pundits say). I am a creative thinker. I trade for a living and a hobby like a fisherman enjoys fishing away from the noise.
You have to do a comparative analysis of gold and oil , because the Forex market is NOT the same as looking at a non-pair markets (stocks, oil , gold ). When you are looking at AUD/CAD , the CHART is NOT all that matters. You are actually looking at a measuring tool. also, Australia's top trading partners is not Canada, so there is no competitive trading advantage here.
I believe that gold will fluctuate sideways IF the BOJ and FOMC proves supportive of an interest rate HIKE for US rates. Some traders believe that oil will go up which is why this trade makes sense. Going into the BOJ statement tomorrow and the FOMC press conference, which I shall be reading and watching keenly, I rather wait for put and investment in oil influences (CAD) versus gold influences (AUD) because I am already in several trades and "part-time" investments.
Technical Support for this trade:
There is a "whittle" candle wick on the 8 hour, suggesting selling pressure, but when you look at the and the price action , it looks like the buyers have been buying on dips since the beginning of September, positioning and/or hedging themselves in the case that oil falls down faster than gold . At first, I was inclined to become a seller, but I need another sign, especially in the transactions below in conjunction with the price.
The not so impossible:
Both Oil and Gold and fall together, but then, one would have to figure out which is moving fast DOWN. If oil falls down faster than gold , then AUD/CAD can blossom up further. If that happens, and you enter in, then the chart will be moving up and down, and what you think is a trend, is really a competition of seller pressure.
What to do instead as a currency trader and speculator:
(1) Look at Gold and Look at Oil separately and find out where it will go one quarter from now.
(2) Do a technical study on the two separate charts.
(3) Do a study on the US Dollar .
(4) Look at both economies and compare them.
(5) Chose wisely or else you might as well go to Los Vegas and trade professionally there instead. It is a lot more fun than suffering at your computer.
Patterns: According to some teachers, modern Elliott Wave guys teach that patterns never can be broken; however, I believe that new information coming in can brake patterns. So, how about a "Pattern Risk-Analysis" before you take the short?