Rocketman

AUD/CAD: Signs of Weakness, but Buyer and Seller beware...

FX:AUDCAD   Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar
169 7 6
Fundamentally:
*Both gold             and oil             can fall down, and both oil             and gold             can go up. Which one will move faster than the other in the same direction? looking at a pair chart of AUD/CAD             will never tell you whether or not gold             or oil             is going up or down!!! They both can be falling down, but AUD the Australian Dollar             will LOOK like it is strong, but it is not. And, if you do not understand this, then do not put your money forward into the abyss! this is gambling, not trading.

I do not claim to be smart, nor a genius, nor some god-like guru or a financial authority, selling blind "technical signals" ("which can be applied to ANY financial instrument" as the pundits say). I am a creative thinker. I trade for a living and a hobby like a fisherman enjoys fishing away from the noise.

You have to do a comparative analysis of gold             and oil             , because the Forex market is NOT the same as looking at a non-pair markets (stocks, oil             , gold             ). When you are looking at AUD/CAD             , the CHART is NOT all that matters. You are actually looking at a measuring tool. also, Australia's top trading partners is not Canada, so there is no competitive trading advantage here.

I believe that gold             will fluctuate sideways IF the BOJ and FOMC proves supportive of an interest rate HIKE for US rates. Some traders believe that oil             will go up which is why this trade makes sense. Going into the BOJ monetary policy statement tomorrow and the FOMC press conference, which I shall be reading and watching keenly, I rather wait for put and investment in oil             influences (CAD) versus gold             influences (AUD) because I am already in several trades and "part-time" investments.



Technical Support for this trade:
There is a "whittle" candle wick on the 8 hour, suggesting selling pressure, but when you look at the volume and the price action, it looks like the buyers have been buying on dips since the beginning of September, positioning and/or hedging themselves in the case that oil             falls down faster than gold             . At first, I was inclined to become a seller, but I need another sign, especially in the volume transactions below in conjunction with the price.

The not so impossible:
Both Oil             and Gold             and fall together, but then, one would have to figure out which is moving fast DOWN. If oil             falls down faster than gold             , then AUD/CAD             can blossom up further. If that happens, and you enter in, then the chart will be moving up and down, and what you think is a trend, is really a competition of seller pressure.

What to do instead as a currency trader and speculator:
(1) Look at Gold             and Look at Oil             separately and find out where it will go one quarter from now.
(2) Do a technical study on the two separate charts.
(3) Do a study on the US Dollar             .
(4) Look at both economies and compare them.
(5) Chose wisely or else you might as well go to Los Vegas and trade professionally there instead. It is a lot more fun than suffering at your computer.
Comment: He is how to get around the BIG Boys playing games on this chart:
snapshot
Comment: The sames they play and we caught on to them:
snapshot
Hi Rocketman , I see this as a clear Head & Shoulder pattern. Why the hell I shuld doubt for shorting ? I jut jump into short now. Thanks for the idea.
Reply
Rocketman waterman
(1) Mainly, because the volume did not support the bears at the time of writing. (2) The Risk Factor: The news coming out for the BOJ and the FOMC may not be supportive to the trade. (3) Have you taken a look at oil and gold and speculate what will happen for tomorrow after the BOJ and the FOMC comes out following that? Do you see a valid reason why gold will fall or rise; or, why oil will fall or rise on the daily?

Patterns: According to some teachers, modern Elliott Wave guys teach that patterns never can be broken; however, I believe that new information coming in can brake patterns. So, how about a "Pattern Risk-Analysis" before you take the short?
Reply
waterman Rocketman
You are right. But my gut feeling says fed will hold for dec and boj will ease also. Both are good for oil and gold bulls.
Reply
Rocketman waterman
I think the FED will raise rates in December also, but here is what you need to THINK going into the BOJ monetary policy decision:
USDJPY, B. Japan and FOMC Speculation Week of September 19, 2016
Reply
This is basically the same as trading pairs, a 'synthetic' ratio chart.
Reply
Rocketman IvanLabrie
The volume doesn't support the bears at the time of writing; it is not a time to short. Yes, agree. EURUSD, USDJPY and the rest are all ratios. That's why I have started to look into individual currencies and not pair charts alone, which do not tell you what is really happening underneath it all.
+1 Reply
You can use technical analysis on ratios, but yes, I'd rather have an idea of fundamentals, great wording here.
Cheers!
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