Smart analysis, always enjoy reading your charts. I am glad my analysis is in line with yours.
however on the lower time frame.., the Elliot wave pattern shows that the downside move is still left with some steam.
A slightly different point of view.
This pair on monthly made a double bottom, and subsequently went up. However it failed to take out the D extension. Will continue bearish for a while longer until its objective has been reached, Then go up.
Nice setup. You are putting a good question if the down move is over?... I really hope that it isn't, since I would very much like to take the following trade (Cypher completion + AB=CD + fib confluence + structure level + RSI overbought) on the lower H4 time frame, before I go long based on that monthly pennant you identified in addition to a LTF long signal: