FX:AUDCAD   Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar
776 10
Fresh supply zone ahead, possible retracement, a short opportunity.

Stuff to remember:

— First look for significant move, then follow it to its origins where you might find a suitable level to evaluate further

— Make sure the initial move is significant on the same timeframe as the one you use for viewing your candidate level most clearly

— Check the distance that price traveled before the trend ended, longer distances mean larger initial imbalances and improved probabilities in the future

— The strong initial move can contain a few small retracements but not so many that make this move slow and weak

— Avoid opposing levels on the same and immediately higher timeframes, prefer to have a clear road ahead for your trade to run

— Make sure your level is placed correctly (low for Demand, high for Supply) in relation to the big picture's important tops and bottoms

— Trading the first return of price to a valid "fresh" level carries the highest probabilities due to the larger imbalance

— A valid level is considered "fresh" if price has not returned to it since its creation. It has nothing to do with how old the level is

— Trading only the first return of price to a valid, properly evaluated level can greatly increase your win ratio. Trading second or other subsequent returns will only dilute your trading edge.
Trade closed: target reached
Hey! I just placed a 2:1 (I notice some people refer to R/R with 1:2 or Reward/Risk instead of Risk/Reward -- I generally order it Risk/Reward) short on this pair after spotting it with your methodology in mind. Stop 20 pips above the Fresh supply zone top.

Every loss is an opportunity that sets capital to be free for other trade potentials -- fun way to look at losses :)

Happy trading this week Tradewonk!
tradewonk iorek65
@iorek65, Thank you! I think few pips above/below the blue area is enough for stop loss.
Nice to see we're on similar views
I am selling at 1.03 WHEN it turns sround. SL at 1.04. It hasn't been that high since 2013; is that what is meant by 'fresh'?
have the same idea
good job
tradewonk dannydegrote
@dannydegrote, Thank you!
I hope your right. i'm currently long aud cad with a target right around there. What is your entry tf? Daily or H4?
@Blased, as i told you, it made a retracement, when it touch the zone.
Monthly, weekly, daily and H4 timeframes are in an uptrend. Personally would not short against that. True your supply level is high in the curve but I would suggest waiting for a signal telling you there are definitely sellers up there before jumping on a short.
@Blased, it might will break through, but it will more likely make a retracement first. So it depends on how big your RR. A trade of 1:1.5/2 on that area, will definetely be a good opportunity.
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