Goldman Sachs is warning that Australia faces a one-in-three chance of a recession in the coming financial year. The RBA has room too move rates lower and I think they will act soon. So my 6month out look for the AUD is lower. AUD got within 2% of the 50% level from the low in 2009 to high in 2013 before bouncing some 4% higher. That gives me a 5-6% move lower and at the current rate of decline of the trend it should reach this point within the next 6months. It can all change over night but this is my current short bias on this pair.