FX:AUDJPY   Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
26 0 2
The market is within the .382-.618 band. Although the bearish momentum is still in effect, the price signals the weakening of the downtrend which began in November 2014, and we can tell this for the following: The corrective structure between August 2015 and November 2015 managed to get above the Fib .382 as well as the previous low; the Stoch belonging to the same leg could not make a lower low and moreover it did actually make a higher high, which caused a bearish divergence and let the market fall down to to test the Fib .5; that test failed the first time and the drew the price up until the upper boundary of the band; the second test, which is the one with the highest volume , got rejected by the Fib .5 again. Thus the market is at risk of staying in the upper half of the band, which case it means the bear trend is over. But I see this just as a weakening of the trend because it is still the bears' turn and we have not yet reached the ML. A final bearish attack seems to be likely to happen and to test the lower boundary of the band, which is the Fib .618 level, which also acted as a reliable support in the past.

If the downtrend beginning from November 2014 is the C leg of a corrective structure, we should be in the 4th or the 5th wave of it. A daily EW count might enlighten the issue for us. Both possibilities are in line with the above paragraph. There seems also to be another possible count for which the downtrend is over, and we are at the breach of a newly begun uptrend. Together with the daily analysis and by time, the truth will unfold.
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