FxWirePro

AUD/JPY hedging and speculating ideas

FX:AUDJPY   Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
105 0 4
As shown in the diagram The ATM IVs of AUDJPY             of 1W expiry is at around 13.39%.

While, sensitivity tool signals more positive change in premiums in OTM strikes scenarios.

And the same also shows high probability numbers for OTM strikes when compared to the ITM             strikes, that means these the ATM puts will have higher likelihood of expiring in the money.

ATM option premiums are priced at 14.75% more than Net Present Value, but the trend is reversing so we could foresee the speculative chances through below option spreads strategy.

Since this pair has been oscillating between the range of 85.700 and 84 levels as buying momentum is reduced but long term trend seems to be intact as you can see the convincing volumes and technical indicators favoring bears on monthly charts.

So on speculative grounds, it is advisable to go long in 2W (1%) OTM 0.37 delta call while writing 1W (1%) ITM             call with positive theta and delta closer to zero (both sides use European style options), this credit call spread option trading strategy is recommended when the underlying spot FX is anticipated to drop moderately in the near term and any abrupt moves in long term would be dealt with OTM longs.

Whereas, on hedging grounds, Put ratio Back Spreads are advocated.

Because, the trend signalling bearish risks after breaking 86.507 levels with favourable bearish signals by technical indicators, and secondly, the traders tend to view the put ratio back spread as a bear strategy, because it employs puts. However, it is actually a volatility strategy.

Options with a higher IV cost more. This is intuitive due to the higher likelihood of the market 'swinging' in your favour. If IV increases and you are holding an option, this is good. You should also note short-dated options are less sensitive to IV, while long-dated are more sensitive.

As we expect the underlying currency exchange rate of AUDJPY             to make a larger move on the downside. As shown in the figure purchase 1M 2 lots of At-The-Money -0.52 delta puts and sell 1W one lot of (1%) In-The-Money put option.

For IVs and sensitivity nutshell, please follow below link:
http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-AUD-JPY-premiums-priced-in-sync-with-1M-ATM-IVs-credit-spreads-for-speculation-and-PRBS-for-hedging-187861
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