4xForecaster
Long

Geo-In-Geo Cycle Completion | $AUD $JPY #RBA #BOJ #aussie #yen

FX:AUDJPY   Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen
1509 11 33
SYNOPSIS:


GEO:

We return to this pair chart anew, looking at a geometric             cycle completion of 2 Geo's:
snapshot


In essence, a rally to the 1-4 Line of the Geo             is called for, based on the concomitant completion of a Geo             (Black) within a Geo             (Blue).


CONDITIONS:

1 - AGGRESSIVE: Look for a slight retracement to the 78.619/78.139 range
-- INVALIDATION: BACA < 77.582

2 - CONSERVATIVE: A break out to the topside of the 77.582/82.428 range
-- CONFIRMATION: BACA > 82.428

3 - TARGETING the 1-4 Line for partial profit ... Consideration of the 1-3 Line validation off of Point-2 (top dashed line in faint blue) IF price remains above the BLUE 1-4 Line and below the BLACK 1-4 Line.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

Targets defined by Predictive/Forecasting Model are as follows:

1 - TG-Hi = 91.083 - 28 FEB 2016

AND

2 - TG-Hix = 92.808 - 28 FEB 2016

Note that both are Qual-Targets, so they offer a lesser probability of attainment compared to Quant-Targets, but would impart a great reversible power upon price - See more explanation on this methodology here:
- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/predictiveforecasting-models-quant-target-versus-david-alcindor/


OVERALL:

Bullish outlook with invalidation level at 77.852, aggressive ("EAGLE") trigger at the 78.619/78.139 range, and conservative trigger at 82.428.

Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado, U. S.A.            


-----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
Linked-In: David Alcindor
TradingView: 4xForecaster
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.
Comment: 02 MAR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Looking at the finer granular frame, here is a potential interplay of Geo and Elliott Wave's Triangle:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 14 UN 2016 - Chart Update:

Now that price has reached the lowest range and stalling into a narrow consolidation pattern, watch for structural highs being taken out:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
as always, super long term goal! we must pay tribute to your calculations.
Reply
is this trade still valid?
Reply
Hi David Any updates on this?
+1 Reply
Watch for price temporarily seeking support near 82.45 ... Lofty target of 88.4 remains intact, though.

David
+2 Reply
ChetanFX 4xForecaster
So downside looks over for now?
+1 Reply
@ChetanFX - I got out then shorted at EW's Pt-4 (Elliott Wave strategic principle), then exited the short and re-entered at the validation of the lesser geometry (structural strategic principle) ... See RED and GREEN arrows, respectively:

snapshot


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
The intent of the short was based on the expectation that rising price will meet significant resistance at the lesser degree of EW's Wave-4 origin ... All this occurred while the Predictive/Forecasting Model remained BULLISH ... I let price fall with a loose SL, and determined that the lesser geometry would probably offer a structural support (i.e.: at the upper-side of the 2-4 Line in BLACK) for a high-probability (i.e.: Model's directional signal) rally.

This is a step-by-step analysis which is also supported by the larger (BLUE) geometry (GEO) which is also expecting a rallying, congruent with the Model's directional signal.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Note also that the HIGHEST-PROBABILITY target is the one I mentioned, resting at 88.40 (not shown in the chart), which would be defined as a Quantitative Target, but the Qualitative Targets, defined as TG-Hi and TG-Hix are the ones I would expect to be reached, even though by definition the QUANT-Targets have a greater probability of attainment than the QUAL-Targets.

David
+2 Reply
ChetanFX 4xForecaster
Amazing work David. This pair is going nicely. Can you please advise on CADJPY as well? Your analysis is really helping me a lot. Thank You.
+1 Reply
i have the same view
AUDJPY get ready to start the big move to 3 wave
Reply
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