FX:AUDJPY   Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
So, the first day of december began with a false break above a considerably important price.

A week later it corrected itself in light of a market dominated by the bears.

We proceed on the assumption (assuming is inherent in forecasting) that this bear trend is still intact unless structure says otherwise. By that I mean if '3' is breached. 5 will be considered a pivotal point in trend-continuation only if new structure lows are established (break below close below 4). With that being said, at this particular time and price, there is no reason price can't retrace higher (between 3 and 4). However, as I've said, since the false break out occurred it wouldn't be wrong to assume that this market is still significantly bearish . Whether 5 is a true retrace or not doesn't matter, because that we will not know until either price makes new structure lows or retraces deeper.

I am taking sides with the bears long-term. There are plenty options since between 3 and 4 there are 1000+ pips. so by all means I will counter the trend if a solid opportunity presents.

Oh and one more thing. This work is not based on elliot wave theory or any other THEORY for that matter. So take it with a pinch of salt. TRADE WHAT 'YOU' SEE! :)

Thanks for reading.
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