AUDNZD short term sell

FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
317 12 13
For my bigger picture view on this pair see below:

I just want to share an intra-day sell opportunity that will be a correction of the impulse of higher degree.
Trade with care and use a trade plan. However I favor another leg lower towards at least 1.11 before the bullish move might continue.


Comment: consolidation is not yet over, wait for the bearish break for a possible short. The Aussie seems ready for a correction across the market, AUDUSD, EURAUD, AUDCHF, AUDCAD, AUDJPY are looking similar so pick the one you like best. I updated this pair since I'm following it long term.

Comment: I'm trading the Aussie pairs today because they look very nice for the bearish move I anticipated. (I'll update AU later on as well.) However AUDNZD retraced slightly deeper than expected so I had to re-enter. I shorted AUDNZD based on 15min bearish continuation and I'll now be looking for more or less the same kind of break on the 1hr time frame for another short position. If I enter a second position my first position has to be at least at break even for risk management purposes.

Trade active: AUDNZD is lagging compared to the other Aussie pairs which already broke lower yesterday, I expect the correction lower today. My first entry is at break even.

Comment: AUDNZD was trailing higher for what I count as an expanded flat correction.This stopped me out three times at break even before I moved on to other set-ups and was fed up with this pair. This was unfortunate because the retrace happened, only slightly later but the structure was great for a sell. Now I'll see whether we will get at least one more bearish leg for a possible sell trade. So far the structure looks corrective and I'm therefore only looking for sell trades.

Hi StuytsTim, could you kindly elaborate how to identify this 5-3 patterns in forex charts which ultimately leads to ellit wave patterns? (This can be a broad question, but i find it difficult to correctly identify an impulse.)
TimStuyts layyarx
Hello Layyarx, I will elaborate in detail about structure on my website but I realize that this doesn't help you now. So I'll try to explain it briefly and as best as possible by means of this comment. An impulse has certain characteristics, it should have 5 waves and move in a relatively steep angle with few or no overlaps (only diagonals show overlaps but lets not focus on that now). If you like to use indicators to help you recognize this, you will often see an increasing strength in oscillators. (once you get familiar with structure remove indicators because it only will slow you down). A correction often has a shallow angle and many overlaps. In this case (Glaazie your question) I don't count the 'correction' as 5 waves but a more complex corrective combination by means of an WXY. The easiest approach is to focus purely on impulses and corrections. If you think you spot an impulse you need at least 3 waves (impulse-correction impulse for ABC) or 5 waves (for 12345). So wait for the break and pullback before you enter (trade wave C or 3). Don't bother with trades you miss but focus on those that present the ideal set-up and then decide whether you want to trade more aggressively in the future. So in this case wait for the break because this correction might trail higher as long as the bearish continuation isn't confirmed.
+1 Reply
layyarx TimStuyts
Thanks for the reply, I'm still learning & your posts are a great help
+1 Reply
i was also in the trade my thoughts where that this was a zigzag correction only now we have a 5 wave down en 5 wave up that's not a valid zigzag pattern isn't it
Hi Tim. Firstly thanks for all your ideas. I follow with interest although like others here I'm battling a bit to understand. I'm not sure I fully grasp what you're saying here. Did you sell before the retrace and now you're waiting again for basically the same break only this time on the H1 instaead of the 15min? Maybe you could post your entry price which would help clarify things a bit? Thanks.
Yes I sold based on the 15 min tf and now I'm looking for the same thing to happen on the 1 hour time frame. Working on a YouTube account so I can show it by means of videos until my website is ready, hope that will make it easier to understand. Takes a bit longer than anticipated;-).
Marvin TimStuyts
Ok then I understood correctly. You don't want to make your entry levels known?
Ok great, sure I can share, my short was at 1.1237. However giving out signals is not my ambition. I personally would not feel comfortable when I trade signals of others because if someone is good enough to sell signals, he/she probably better manage a fund without the risk of lag or misinterpretation (but this is my personal opinion). So therefore I try to explain structure helping you to determine for yourself what level you like to enter or not trade a set-up at all. That's why I never give entry levels on Tradingview (I will do that on my website because then I know the level of knowledge of the traders) and preferably not a target, my experience is that many traders, especially new traders tend to focus too much on the levels and forget about structure which is leading in Forex. Hope this helps and please ask me anything whenever you want, I'll try to answer as soon as possible and will try to plan a live webinar for next week so that might help many to understand how I look at structure which will help you interpreted my analyses.
Marvin TimStuyts
Great answer & I couldn't agree more. I`m not wanting to get signals, just trying to understand and in this case your entry level will help me. Thanks Tim.
Glad to hear, I got stopped out at break-even and will look for another entry if it presents itself. Have to admit that due to the Kiwi weakness this wasn't the best Aussie pair to trade yesterday. However structure is still in place so let's see whether we get the bearish break today. Good trading to you.
im also back in the trade seems it was a zigzag afterall 5 wave down 3 wave up only the picture wassn't clear yesterday
i think the audnzd shows also a abcde patteren in progress
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