4xForecaster
Long

$AUD vs $NZD Completes Geo; Eyes 1.07583 $USD #RBA #RBNZ #forex

FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
586 14 10
Ready for this NEW one?

We are adding another long-term chart to the collection of "Adv. Market Geo" lessons, looking in the eyes of a DAILY chart . The particular importance of this one is that the DAILY bar has not completed its daily consumption, and that although it has penetrated the 1-3 Line, ONLY a new bar can trigger any consideration for a LONG position. I would even add to be clear, that ONLY a long position should be entertained IF and ONLY IF the current bar closes above the 1-3 Line.


snapshot


Now, as you may recall, we are adhering quite strictly to the "Off-Set Rule", which states that:

1 - Reversal from Point-5 should trigger a target along the geo's 1-4 Line

2 - Reversal from Point-5-prime (5') should trigger a target at level of Point-4

and

3 - Reversal frm Point-5-second (5'') should trigger a target at level of Point-3.

First, remember that the Points 5, 5' and 5'' and their corresponding targets refer to all points pertaining to the SAME geo             . Here, we are dealing with the interplay of TWO geos, one potentiating the other - To be clear, I will refer to large or small geo             .

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
22 June 2015

$AUDNZD

Hi David. The geo development in this pair looks likes its being masterminded by some architect. As this bullish impulse leg extended so far above Point 5 is it likely that price would decline to the level of point 4? I expect a decline to the 1-3 Line would be the extent of the bearish reach before a further rally....please could I have your thoughts.

Kind regards

iefan

snapshot
+1 Reply
Hello @iefan - Yes, with this much distortion in the Geo, one would be tempted to apply the 3rd OffSet Rule and project a price return to the level corresponding to Point-3. And frankly, this is exactly what I would be tempted to do. Still, the rule of this Geo remains that at this price level, a 5-second has not been reached, so one should expect a return to the level corresponding to Point-4.

To the LEFT of the price field, is a DOUBLE-TOP formation, followed by now the completion of another top. This is in effect a Kiss-0f-Death ("KoD"), which rates as a LOW probability scenario, but still adds probability weight to a retracement in the Fibonacci order of 0.386, 0.500 ... up to 0.681, which appears to approximate with price level of Point-4 (I'm glancing at it as I type this - You are welcome to post a chart with the Fib scale to re-check, if you'd like).

Of note, the larger (GREY) geometry corresponds to the cycle completion of a Wolfe Wave, which signaled LONG entry at the GREEN mark. A similar cycle completion occurred at the smaller (BLACK) geometry, too - However, the "in-between" size geometry (BLUE) is the one that we are using as a reference, and its distortion is a bit mind-bending.

What I would tend to do is see whether the second higher-low spike (right above the point-4 in blue) would offer the 2-4 Line that angle that would allow 5-prime to get validated. It appears that this slight change in forward angulation might be what is going on in terms of 5' validation.

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
12 MAY 2015 - Update: Trade Cycle Completed - Thread Closing.

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD completed its entire geometric cycle as price attained, bounced off of its 1-4 Line:

snapshot


$AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ
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David Alcindor

==========

TECH-NOTE:

The trade cycle completed. I hope some of you followed this thread and was able to capitalize on this particular pair lesson.

Entry was offered and posted in the chart, Stop-Loss is self-evident if you only use the structural highs/lows relative to Point-5, and the target was rule-based. Here, I offered two targets, one terminal at the level of Point-4, using the Off-Set Rule.

More aggressive breeds of traders could certainly use a 80/20 method, getting 80% of their gain at the level of Point-4, and hoping to see price prop itself up to the 1-4 Line, which is not always a guarantee once an ectopic Point-5 is carved out during one of the adverse excursion to define 5' or 5".

I personally seek high-probabilities, so the exit at Point-4 is a near=guarantee, as far as I am willing to follow this rule-based methodology.

Did you get in late? Early? Did you get out early or late? Did you use a 80/20 profit-taking method? Feel free to let other less experienced, less fortunate traders derive from the benefits of your new experience with this Geo.

Thank you for following thus far and for freely sharing your experience with others.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
I got in based on inside bar at the first leg of double bottom, at point 5', around 10 days prior prior your entry alert. and I exited full position at point 4.

Mentally, it was tough to see all the gains of are disappearing as the second bottom is forming, and I paid more on swap. but because of great RRR, was a great experience.
Reply
11 MAY 2015 - Update: ALL Targets hit:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD hit its second target at 1.07583; Bulls about to butt against bear brick:

snapshot


$AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ $USD #forex
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
08 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD seeks repose on prior resistance zone, as forecast; Bulls remain focused on 1.07583:

snapshot


$AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
08 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD remains intent on 1.07583 target as forecast. Interim support at 1.05285 is probable:

snapshot


$AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
05 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD is expected to pierce thru temporizing resistance, attain 1.07583 zone per Off-Set Rule:

snapshot


$AUD $NZD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
29 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD hits first target, completes "Off-Set Rule" condition; Eyes next bullish target:

snapshot


$AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
28 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD moving as forecast; Expect time-consumptive interdiction at 1.05017; 1.07583 still intact:

snapshot


$AUD $NZD $USD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
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