4xForecaster
Long

$AUD vs $NZD Completes Geo; Eyes 1.07583 $USD #RBA #RBNZ #forex

FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
586 14 10
Ready for this NEW one?

We are adding another long-term chart to the collection of "Adv. Market Geo" lessons, looking in the eyes of a DAILY chart . The particular importance of this one is that the DAILY bar has not completed its daily consumption, and that although it has penetrated the 1-3 Line, ONLY a new bar can trigger any consideration for a LONG position. I would even add to be clear, that ONLY a long position should be entertained IF and ONLY IF the current bar closes above the 1-3 Line.


snapshot


Now, as you may recall, we are adhering quite strictly to the "Off-Set Rule", which states that:

1 - Reversal from Point-5 should trigger a target along the geo's 1-4 Line

2 - Reversal from Point-5-prime (5') should trigger a target at level of Point-4

and

3 - Reversal frm Point-5-second (5'') should trigger a target at level of Point-3.

First, remember that the Points 5, 5' and 5'' and their corresponding targets refer to all points pertaining to the SAME geo             . Here, we are dealing with the interplay of TWO geos, one potentiating the other - To be clear, I will refer to large or small geo             .

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
22 APR 2015 - Update:

A quick note on some of the details within the chart.


snapshot



First, let's mention the most obvious: We are dealing with TWO geometries, a smaller one with its own 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 5-prime points, potentiating the same points scattered over a wider time range, pertaining to a larger geoemtry.

Second, each will submit to the same "Off-Set Rule" (see thread's intro for Rule), thus raising the level of expectation to a probability that each of the targets is likely to impose a significant resistance upon price, as it rises to their respective levels of Point-4.

Third, let us turn to some standard technical measurements, namely Fibonacci retracement values of 0.382 and 0.618. I thought that this third point is pertinent enough, since it should add credence to the geometrically defined targets. So, what we are seeking here is an association at worth, or a near alignment at best.

Here is the text I just released, highlighting the fact that indeed, a near alignment in one and a close association occurred in 0.382-Fib and 0.618-Fib, respectively, relative to levels of Point-4 for each geometries, as follows:


======================
22 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD aligns geometric targets with standard #fibonacci retracement levels:

snapshot


$AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ $USD #forex
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David Alcindor
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======================


So, here we have it. Hope this is stimulating your interest in advance market geometries, and that you will not feel too shy about posting potential pattern development. In case you may not have read the request I made earlier last night: Feel free to post chart, but not their links. Only the charts posted via the icon that is in the top-left corner of the writing window will be considered. I am asking that this be respected, as may of the readers will sift through many charts in this and other threads across our prolific TradingView community, and it simply is asking too much to open a new window at each new URL. So, post.

Also, kepp your charts void of indicators, other patterns, and ego - I personally do not care about what you think price should do. I myself remain still and subject to what my predictive/forecsating model tells me. In the case of these geometries, same thing: If and once price reverses off of the 1-3 Line as in this case, I will share it and demonstrate it as clearly as possible, so that I may help you develop a second nature about this particular geometry - This is my only goal, and nowhere will you see me request to visit me in some other site. All is done and stays in TradingView for every one's pleasure and edification.

We are looking at simple geometries. Nothing more, nothing less. If you like these, stick with them. If you have problem understanding my Frenglish, my symbols, or vocabulary associated with this market analysis, just ask. Sometimes, I will ascribe a numerical or nominal target, which is generated through a separate system ("Predictive & Forecasting Model"), but this is something I cannot share. Plus, why complicate your life when this geometry can really be all you would ever need to trade - If some traders learned something new, mention it, especially if it pertains to improved profitability, so that others can see that there really is nothing else here but friendship, free-share and surefire methods. Plus, it's all free.

Best,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
danndc 4xForecaster
2 years ago
thanks for your charts, can you tell us if and when to get into this trade?

i would like jump by now but you said only after daily close

thanks a lot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO danndc
2 years ago
Hello @danndc - The answer is both in the texts above: One in the original thread ("ONLY a long position should be entertained IF and ONLY IF the current bar closes above the 1-3 Line"). The other in your question ("you said only after daily close").

This would probably be the most conservative manner of entry.

David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
24 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD - Daily bar validates 2-4 Line of larger geo. for the first time; Pending BACA; Bulls in charge:

snapshot


$AUD $NZD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
28 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD moving as forecast; Expect time-consumptive interdiction at 1.05017; 1.07583 still intact:

snapshot


$AUD $NZD $USD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
29 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD hits first target, completes "Off-Set Rule" condition; Eyes next bullish target:

snapshot


$AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
05 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD is expected to pierce thru temporizing resistance, attain 1.07583 zone per Off-Set Rule:

snapshot


$AUD $NZD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
08 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD remains intent on 1.07583 target as forecast. Interim support at 1.05285 is probable:

snapshot


$AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
08 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD seeks repose on prior resistance zone, as forecast; Bulls remain focused on 1.07583:

snapshot


$AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ
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snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
11 MAY 2015 - Update: ALL Targets hit:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD hit its second target at 1.07583; Bulls about to butt against bear brick:

snapshot


$AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ $USD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
12 MAY 2015 - Update: Trade Cycle Completed - Thread Closing.

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD completed its entire geometric cycle as price attained, bounced off of its 1-4 Line:

snapshot


$AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ
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David Alcindor

==========

TECH-NOTE:

The trade cycle completed. I hope some of you followed this thread and was able to capitalize on this particular pair lesson.

Entry was offered and posted in the chart, Stop-Loss is self-evident if you only use the structural highs/lows relative to Point-5, and the target was rule-based. Here, I offered two targets, one terminal at the level of Point-4, using the Off-Set Rule.

More aggressive breeds of traders could certainly use a 80/20 method, getting 80% of their gain at the level of Point-4, and hoping to see price prop itself up to the 1-4 Line, which is not always a guarantee once an ectopic Point-5 is carved out during one of the adverse excursion to define 5' or 5".

I personally seek high-probabilities, so the exit at Point-4 is a near=guarantee, as far as I am willing to follow this rule-based methodology.

Did you get in late? Early? Did you get out early or late? Did you use a 80/20 profit-taking method? Feel free to let other less experienced, less fortunate traders derive from the benefits of your new experience with this Geo.

Thank you for following thus far and for freely sharing your experience with others.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I got in based on inside bar at the first leg of double bottom, at point 5', around 10 days prior prior your entry alert. and I exited full position at point 4.

Mentally, it was tough to see all the gains of are disappearing as the second bottom is forming, and I paid more on swap. but because of great RRR, was a great experience.
Reply
iefan PRO
2 years ago
22 June 2015

$AUDNZD

Hi David. The geo development in this pair looks likes its being masterminded by some architect. As this bullish impulse leg extended so far above Point 5 is it likely that price would decline to the level of point 4? I expect a decline to the 1-3 Line would be the extent of the bearish reach before a further rally....please could I have your thoughts.

Kind regards

iefan

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Hello @iefan - Yes, with this much distortion in the Geo, one would be tempted to apply the 3rd OffSet Rule and project a price return to the level corresponding to Point-3. And frankly, this is exactly what I would be tempted to do. Still, the rule of this Geo remains that at this price level, a 5-second has not been reached, so one should expect a return to the level corresponding to Point-4.

To the LEFT of the price field, is a DOUBLE-TOP formation, followed by now the completion of another top. This is in effect a Kiss-0f-Death ("KoD"), which rates as a LOW probability scenario, but still adds probability weight to a retracement in the Fibonacci order of 0.386, 0.500 ... up to 0.681, which appears to approximate with price level of Point-4 (I'm glancing at it as I type this - You are welcome to post a chart with the Fib scale to re-check, if you'd like).

Of note, the larger (GREY) geometry corresponds to the cycle completion of a Wolfe Wave, which signaled LONG entry at the GREEN mark. A similar cycle completion occurred at the smaller (BLACK) geometry, too - However, the "in-between" size geometry (BLUE) is the one that we are using as a reference, and its distortion is a bit mind-bending.

What I would tend to do is see whether the second higher-low spike (right above the point-4 in blue) would offer the 2-4 Line that angle that would allow 5-prime to get validated. It appears that this slight change in forward angulation might be what is going on in terms of 5' validation.

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
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