We are adding another long-term chart to the collection of "Adv. Market Geo" lessons, looking in the eyes of a . The particular importance of this one is that the DAILY bar has not completed its daily consumption, and that although it has penetrated the 1-3 Line, ONLY a new bar can trigger any consideration for a LONG position. I would even add to be clear, that ONLY a long position should be entertained IF and ONLY IF the current bar closes above the 1-3 Line.
Now, as you may recall, we are adhering quite strictly to the "Off-Set Rule", which states that:
1 - Reversal from Point-5 should trigger a target along the geo's 1-4 Line
2 - Reversal from Point-5-prime (5') should trigger a target at level of Point-4
3 - Reversal frm Point-5-second (5'') should trigger a target at level of Point-3.
First, remember that the Points 5, 5' and 5'' and their corresponding targets refer to all points pertaining to the SAME geo . Here, we are dealing with the interplay of TWO geos, one potentiating the other - To be clear, I will refer to large or small geo .
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
CROW Signal Service:
Hi David. The geo development in this pair looks likes its being masterminded by some architect. As this bullish impulse leg extended so far above Point 5 is it likely that price would decline to the level of point 4? I expect a decline to the 1-3 Line would be the extent of the bearish reach before a further rally....please could I have your thoughts.
To the LEFT of the price field, is a DOUBLE-TOP formation, followed by now the completion of another top. This is in effect a Kiss-0f-Death ("KoD"), which rates as a LOW probability scenario, but still adds probability weight to a retracement in the Fibonacci order of 0.386, 0.500 ... up to 0.681, which appears to approximate with price level of Point-4 (I'm glancing at it as I type this - You are welcome to post a chart with the Fib scale to re-check, if you'd like).
Of note, the larger (GREY) geometry corresponds to the cycle completion of a Wolfe Wave, which signaled LONG entry at the GREEN mark. A similar cycle completion occurred at the smaller (BLACK) geometry, too - However, the "in-between" size geometry (BLUE) is the one that we are using as a reference, and its distortion is a bit mind-bending.
What I would tend to do is see whether the second higher-low spike (right above the point-4 in blue) would offer the 2-4 Line that angle that would allow 5-prime to get validated. It appears that this slight change in forward angulation might be what is going on in terms of 5' validation.
$AUDNZD completed its entire geometric cycle as price attained, bounced off of its 1-4 Line:
$AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ
The trade cycle completed. I hope some of you followed this thread and was able to capitalize on this particular pair lesson.
Entry was offered and posted in the chart, Stop-Loss is self-evident if you only use the structural highs/lows relative to Point-5, and the target was rule-based. Here, I offered two targets, one terminal at the level of Point-4, using the Off-Set Rule.
More aggressive breeds of traders could certainly use a 80/20 method, getting 80% of their gain at the level of Point-4, and hoping to see price prop itself up to the 1-4 Line, which is not always a guarantee once an ectopic Point-5 is carved out during one of the adverse excursion to define 5' or 5".
I personally seek high-probabilities, so the exit at Point-4 is a near=guarantee, as far as I am willing to follow this rule-based methodology.
Did you get in late? Early? Did you get out early or late? Did you use a 80/20 profit-taking method? Feel free to let other less experienced, less fortunate traders derive from the benefits of your new experience with this Geo.
Thank you for following thus far and for freely sharing your experience with others.
Mentally, it was tough to see all the gains of are disappearing as the second bottom is forming, and I paid more on swap. but because of great RRR, was a great experience.