We are adding another long-term chart to the collection of "Adv. Market Geo" lessons, looking in the eyes of a . The particular importance of this one is that the DAILY bar has not completed its daily consumption, and that although it has penetrated the 1-3 Line, ONLY a new bar can trigger any consideration for a LONG position. I would even add to be clear, that ONLY a long position should be entertained IF and ONLY IF the current bar closes above the 1-3 Line.
Now, as you may recall, we are adhering quite strictly to the "Off-Set Rule", which states that:
1 - Reversal from Point-5 should trigger a target along the geo's 1-4 Line
2 - Reversal from Point-5-prime (5') should trigger a target at level of Point-4
3 - Reversal frm Point-5-second (5'') should trigger a target at level of Point-3.
First, remember that the Points 5, 5' and 5'' and their corresponding targets refer to all points pertaining to the SAME geo . Here, we are dealing with the interplay of TWO geos, one potentiating the other - To be clear, I will refer to large or small geo .
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A quick note on some of the details within the chart.
First, let's mention the most obvious: We are dealing with TWO geometries, a smaller one with its own 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 5-prime points, potentiating the same points scattered over a wider time range, pertaining to a larger geoemtry.
Second, each will submit to the same "Off-Set Rule" (see thread's intro for Rule), thus raising the level of expectation to a probability that each of the targets is likely to impose a significant resistance upon price, as it rises to their respective levels of Point-4.
Third, let us turn to some standard technical measurements, namely Fibonacci retracement values of 0.382 and 0.618. I thought that this third point is pertinent enough, since it should add credence to the geometrically defined targets. So, what we are seeking here is an association at worth, or a near alignment at best.
Here is the text I just released, highlighting the fact that indeed, a near alignment in one and a close association occurred in 0.382-Fib and 0.618-Fib, respectively, relative to levels of Point-4 for each geometries, as follows:
22 APR 2015 - Update:
$AUDNZD aligns geometric targets with standard #fibonacci retracement levels:
$AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ $USD #forex
So, here we have it. Hope this is stimulating your interest in advance market geometries, and that you will not feel too shy about posting potential pattern development. In case you may not have read the request I made earlier last night: Feel free to post chart, but not their links. Only the charts posted via the icon that is in the top-left corner of the writing window will be considered. I am asking that this be respected, as may of the readers will sift through many charts in this and other threads across our prolific TradingView community, and it simply is asking too much to open a new window at each new URL. So, post.
Also, kepp your charts void of indicators, other patterns, and ego - I personally do not care about what you think price should do. I myself remain still and subject to what my predictive/forecsating model tells me. In the case of these geometries, same thing: If and once price reverses off of the 1-3 Line as in this case, I will share it and demonstrate it as clearly as possible, so that I may help you develop a second nature about this particular geometry - This is my only goal, and nowhere will you see me request to visit me in some other site. All is done and stays in TradingView for every one's pleasure and edification.
We are looking at simple geometries. Nothing more, nothing less. If you like these, stick with them. If you have problem understanding my Frenglish, my symbols, or vocabulary associated with this market analysis, just ask. Sometimes, I will ascribe a numerical or nominal target, which is generated through a separate system ("Predictive & Forecasting Model"), but this is something I cannot share. Plus, why complicate your life when this geometry can really be all you would ever need to trade - If some traders learned something new, mention it, especially if it pertains to improved profitability, so that others can see that there really is nothing else here but friendship, free-share and surefire methods. Plus, it's all free.
This would probably be the most conservative manner of entry.
$AUDNZD completed its entire geometric cycle as price attained, bounced off of its 1-4 Line:
$AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ
The trade cycle completed. I hope some of you followed this thread and was able to capitalize on this particular pair lesson.
Entry was offered and posted in the chart, Stop-Loss is self-evident if you only use the structural highs/lows relative to Point-5, and the target was rule-based. Here, I offered two targets, one terminal at the level of Point-4, using the Off-Set Rule.
More aggressive breeds of traders could certainly use a 80/20 method, getting 80% of their gain at the level of Point-4, and hoping to see price prop itself up to the 1-4 Line, which is not always a guarantee once an ectopic Point-5 is carved out during one of the adverse excursion to define 5' or 5".
I personally seek high-probabilities, so the exit at Point-4 is a near=guarantee, as far as I am willing to follow this rule-based methodology.
Did you get in late? Early? Did you get out early or late? Did you use a 80/20 profit-taking method? Feel free to let other less experienced, less fortunate traders derive from the benefits of your new experience with this Geo.
Thank you for following thus far and for freely sharing your experience with others.
Mentally, it was tough to see all the gains of are disappearing as the second bottom is forming, and I paid more on swap. but because of great RRR, was a great experience.
Hi David. The geo development in this pair looks likes its being masterminded by some architect. As this bullish impulse leg extended so far above Point 5 is it likely that price would decline to the level of point 4? I expect a decline to the 1-3 Line would be the extent of the bearish reach before a further rally....please could I have your thoughts.
To the LEFT of the price field, is a DOUBLE-TOP formation, followed by now the completion of another top. This is in effect a Kiss-0f-Death ("KoD"), which rates as a LOW probability scenario, but still adds probability weight to a retracement in the Fibonacci order of 0.386, 0.500 ... up to 0.681, which appears to approximate with price level of Point-4 (I'm glancing at it as I type this - You are welcome to post a chart with the Fib scale to re-check, if you'd like).
Of note, the larger (GREY) geometry corresponds to the cycle completion of a Wolfe Wave, which signaled LONG entry at the GREEN mark. A similar cycle completion occurred at the smaller (BLACK) geometry, too - However, the "in-between" size geometry (BLUE) is the one that we are using as a reference, and its distortion is a bit mind-bending.
What I would tend to do is see whether the second higher-low spike (right above the point-4 in blue) would offer the 2-4 Line that angle that would allow 5-prime to get validated. It appears that this slight change in forward angulation might be what is going on in terms of 5' validation.