AUDNZD-H4-head and shoulders pattern

FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar
1024 9 22
Price is bouncing from the neckline.
We can see also a previous double divergence on AO showing bearish pressure. A rising trendline already broken.
Watch the NZD rate news on wednesday.
Best regards.

This is just and idea, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Always do your own analysis and plan before opening a trade.
Any respectful and constructive ideas are welcome (agree or disagree).

Comment: Today we have NZD rate news. The forecast is that rate will be cut to 2.5%. I want to play safe and close all positions here. I have other AUD trades open (AUDJPY, AUDCHF).
I have two comments here. Divergence seems to have happened and price pulled back as a result and divergence payed-off. Now there is no divergence anymore, in other words indicator has stabilized. Other thing is, I look for shoulder/head formations either at the the top of a trend or at the bottom. This one looks like it is happening at the top in this view, but it may change if we zoom out a little bit. Thanks for the idea, i will definitely follow it.
Hello, thanks for comment. I use indicators only as additional information, never as the base for a trade. They change all the time and sometimes are "neutral" as now. I agree with your bias to look for HS patterns at the top or at the bottom but it depends on TF.
I also make a top-down analysis mainly using elliott waves (see D1 idea below). From my point of view the last rally from 1.0500 is not impulsive anymore because price is losing momentum and right now is price action is overlapping.
So i assume price is making a CORRECTIVE structure, we should expect further decline. Then i pinpoint entry on lower timeframes (H4) using other tools such technicall analysis, harmonict patterns, etc.
bekirdur FullTimeTrader
Thanks a lot. Looks nice...
Got my target at 1.0655, do you think it will hit it before the rate decisions? or do you play safe and close at 1.076?
i am agree with it because a potential crab could be form.
But besides that, we should be aware of the potential cypher and potential bat could be form as well. Or we can move sl to be once it reach 1.08750, to make this trade safe. Breakeven is always better than losing money. =) Good luck.
Same idea here!! Have been in since Friday, testing some new strategies with time on it as well. Hoping to hit target on 12-9, we'll see how it plays out.
Heelfan23 Heelfan23
Target hit, and missed it time wise by only a couple of hours!!!!
Nice picture, thank you so much!
Just what I was looking for to short this pair. Beautiful setup, great job mate, as always and thank you for sharing :)
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