FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar
Since the high on May 12th, the Aussie has been giving back its gains to the weaker Kiwi. Price has now retraced the rally from the 4.21 low @ 1.0039 and 5.12 high @ 1.0882 near the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level @ 1.0557. This level coincides with a long running balance line rising across the chart. After nearly striking this price level, price reversed, broke its short term trendline and has now re-tested it and moved higher. This price action should set the stage for another rally in AUD/NZD             .

From a fundamental perspective, the two countries central banks are in a different strategic position at the moment. While both countries struggle with deflation, the RBA has already cut rates, and the market has already priced in a future cut. The RBNZ has not cut, and the market is anticipating a cut will happen this year to weaken the currency in a world where other currencies are already made weaker. Poor export numbers on lower dairy prices are also influencing this perception.

A close above the 5.12 high @ 1.0882 can be the beginning of a big rally with the next resistance level in the 1.1250 area.
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