FullTimeTrader
Short

AUDNZD-ready to make a pullback

FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
1024 13 16
Thanks to PriceActionTrading for this idea
AUDNZD PAIR TO WATCH OUT FOR

This shows the power of this community, its not a struggle to show who is always right or who is better, smarter but helping each other to find nice trading opportunities.

For new members, observe im not just blindly taking his setup but i do my own analysis using my trading system to confirm a possible trade.

After a strong rally this pair is reaching a key area, we can see it better on W1 chart (see details on chart):
snapshot

Specially I like the bollinger band duplication and bounce trading on EMA 200. This is a trading system i have backtested and feel comfortable with.

Here on D1 chart we see the price made the first lower low and is attempting to reach new highs but the momentun is weak, i think it will fail and finally will make a deeper retracement, at least to the 0.38 fib

We see there was a previous AB=CD pattern before but one thing i learned is not to jump into a trade and wait for the price to PROVE first its ready to make a move.
The lower low is that proof for me.

Best regards

*****************DISCLAMER********************************************************************
This is just and idea, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Always do your own analysis before opening a trade.
Managing is 60% of a trade, anytime I may decide not to open, close or even stop and reverse a trade depending on price action.
Any respectful and constructive ideas are welcome.
We all are here to learn sharing ideas, have fun and improve our performance.

very nice analysis, but i would rather wait and go to sell on 1.10 after breaking the latest low. There is higher high on monthly chart and i think the price can be stuck in some range now (forming triangle for example) and then go up
Reply
Interesting idea mate, here is my view on this pair.
If RBNZ cuts further on Wednesday this will fly off and if they hold then it has a potential to come down but given the CPI and dairy prices from last week I am quite sceptical

snapshot
Reply
Thank for sharing i wil consider your point of view if the price action show im no right
Reply
Its amazing how everyone has so different opinions about markets direction :P
myself went long on friday close!
Reply
technical analysis is very accurate business (most of the time) and in general is always the glass half full - half empty argument.
it is generally used to identify and take advantage of a situation where price has reached its momentum climax, and it is time to decide whether to continue in the same direction with renewed confidence, or retreat for the lack of encouragement.
with that in mind, I call your attention to RBNZ widely expected to cut rate, and how do you thing would effect the near term price action?
Reply
FullTimeTrader EmanuilValkov
Thanks for your opinion, i will be watching the RBNZ anouncement and consider to close or move SL to BE. Until that day this setup could work short term.
Reply
tixenalp EmanuilValkov
Quite frankly I agree with EmanuilValkov, RBNZ will announce a OCR rate drop this Friday. The falling dairy prices and also the increase inflation has more than enough reason to bring the cuts down. Reference: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11482149
Reply
tixenalp tixenalp
Apologies, OCR is on Wednesday or Thursday
Reply
For a short term I believe aud is weak. But and nzd is not strong.
+1 Reply
Thanks Mate.
Reply
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