Long not for a long time...

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
82 11 0
It is an upward retracement running at moment. I assume that we are in a trading range for a while. Within this range we can reach the top.
Well, no new highs, so I expect new lows, first below 0.871.
motleifaul ForceFollower
Yes. No I can see it. You must be rich.
motleifaul motleifaul
I am out now.
ForceFollower motleifaul
I have no idea what will happen next in any market, just trading the probabilities. :-)
Today the prices have been maundering for the most of the day. Now it's time for the Friday-Afternoon Ride! I hope you've fastened your safety belt buckle and are sitting in the right train. :-)
motleifaul ForceFollower
The problem is as always that I have to make the decion when I make it - not afterworth. The decision for long AUDUSD I made 7 hour before your comment. At that time - you see it in the chart- we had just the beginning of the correction with 3 consecutive new highs, an intermediate black candle followed by an engulfing white candle which would have confirmed the upward correction. There I had to decide. I decided and it was wrong.
I am always in the right train. Perhaps sometimes the timetable is wrong.
ForceFollower motleifaul
Every trade is unique and it can develop against your expectations. You can't help it. I like your zeal for trading, your honesty and your courage to admit to a loss.

However, I'm not so sure, if you do the after-work, i.e. study the charts after you took a loss and learn a lesson from each of them by taking notes in your trading diary. This is the source of the trader's progress, (as I see it).

The decisions should not be made by you, but by the probability of the outcome you've learnt from your experience.
motleifaul ForceFollower
Yes, it seem that I am the only one here and everywhere who comments his own deals afterwards, who admits losses as well. I am thinking about to drop it, perhaps publishing ideas at all.
If you do what I do you stand there as a fool at last. No, I make profit. As ChrisMoody just cited Mark Hellweg most of the money is made with 5 % of the trades. I cannot confirm the 5% but the principle. Showing my deals and even more admitting the losses makes the impression that I make loss. I can assure you: This is wrong. In the past year I doubled my speculative capital. I was under water until April and made profit until October then. At another platform I was criticized as well: "You should have done this! Didn't you see those?" I even published my track record there. It didn't help. The citicizers where always people who didn't publish anything themselves or hoped that their ideas, which were wrong, are forgotten. As they never reverted to their wrong deals they were indeed. So you can imagine how frustrating it is to be the only who has losses in the whole forum?
I appreciate a comment on my ideas also whe I am told where I make a mistake. A comment after I saw the result by myself doesn't help me so much, is just frustrating to be said what fool I am and how wise the citicizer is. I would much mor appreciate when the ciriticizer woul comment his or her own deals. Then I could learn from his/her mistakes as well.
Reverting to my own deals, admitting a loss and making an own comment is just this what you mean with with after-work. I look at the chart again and see what was good or wrong. From time to time I still make a print of the chart and keep it as a lesson.
I wrote two thick books of trading diaries in the past. It was helpful then. But the more deals you do the more you realise that, what you say as well, every deal is unique. When you make some hundred deals a year as I do it makes no sense any more. There are only a few conclusions tat have a common validity.
I publish my ideas here because I learn from the ideas of others and want to give something back. But it seems again that I have to change something here. I don't have the time to look at the ideas of others to see whether they prooved to be good or not when the publishers don't revert to them and make a comment. I am an open book for everyone. The others hide behind walls. Geben ist seeliger denn nehmen. Yes, but those who give only will starve hunger's.
ForceFollower motleifaul
Your comment has made me think. Deeply, I admit. You will do what you think is right. You have to follow your own path, and if publishing on tradingview disturbs you or thwarts your progress, then you should stop doing it. But I'm glad I've got someone to talk to about trading, so I'd rather see you here, at least now and then.

Trading is such a hard game. Your bet means that your TP will get hit sooner than your SL. So you have to find such an entry point, where from price will get to your TP and avoid your SL. So, with every trade you've got simultaneously two targets: one to be hit and one to be missed. It requires perfect timing and calibrating of the entry.

I've never questioned your ability to make money. You are better than me, because I haven't doubled my capital yet. And my losses have been huge!
I'm sorry my comments were perhaps too harsh on you. I didn't mean to criticize you, but trying to show my point of view. After all price always does its thing, goes its way, without caring about what I think. Like at the moment, most markets are fighting me. My superb EURCAD long setup has just failed.

So, I can assure you, you are not the only one who makes losses. Don't care about the others. While admitting to a loss you actually show your greatness as a trader. I've never ridiculed you. Those who are unwilling to take losses, eventually lose half of their capital in margin calls.

What matters though is that we take losses early, when they are small. Losses are necessary for the winners to come. They are like costs to a business. All you can do is: kill them young, small and as rare as possible. In order to handle the frequency part of the equation, you need to infer from your strategy some knowledge about the probabilities. It is necessary for you to enter the trades that have the highest probabillty of success. And actually that is all the work to be done.

I stress the importance of a trading diary, because it has helped me a lot. But it's not all. I also back-test and analyse past market conditions that were conducive to a winning trade. Just do the tedious work of improving my strategy.

So keep it up. Go your way. And good luck!
In this case it is a confirmation of the Schiff Pitchfork lines. As you see the beginnings and end points of the waves are almost identic with the fork pronks. So it may make some sense to assume that the fibo extensions may ave some relevance for the movement within the fork ranges. You may also leve them away and make your targets with pure fibonacci ratracements as well.
motleifaul motleifaul
...if you believe in Fibonacci at all. :-)
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