ICmarkets

AUD/USD: Weekly technical outlook and review.

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
30 0 1
Weekly TF.

Price is still seen in a consolidation with the upper limits at 0.94600 and the lower around the 0.92046 area. Last week saw sellers becoming quite aggressive if we compare to the last three weekly candles. Could we see a drop down the lower limits of this consolidation area this week? Let’s take a look at the lower timeframes for a closer inspection.

Daily TF.

A positive daily close below the 0.93208 level happened on Thursday, with price seen successfully retesting it as resistance on Friday. This break south was important as price had previously been ranging between the aforementioned daily low and daily supply above at 0.95425-0.94852 for a good few weeks. If the sellers react further to this retest, we may see a test of daily demand below at 0.92046-0.92354. A new daily supply area has come to light at 0.94729-0.94175, the reason for this is we have seen proof of selling strength on this timeframe from a breakout south of the range mentioned above, and the overall origin of this push down is at this daily supply area in our opinion.

4hr TF.
To the end of last week, price action played out beautifully, a retest of the round number 0.93 (resistance at the time) was seen before we tested the 4hr decision-point area below at 0.92566-0.92736 as reported would likely happen in the last analysis.

Following this, the buyers pushed above the round number 0.93, retested it, and then traded up to the 4hr D/S flip area at 0.93208-0.93417 where selling interest was seen towards Friday’s close. Considering we have just broken south out of a daily range (see above for details) and successfully at the time of writing appear to have retested the lower edge as now resistance, lower prices could well be seen on the 4hr timeframe past the aforementioned 4hr decision-point area (as buying pressure may well be consumed here now) down to a 4hr level of interest at 0.92384 which is conveniently located just above dally demand at 0.92046-0.92354.

However, we should also consider the fact that the breakout of the daily range low (0.93208) could have well been a fakeout, and pro money has used the 4hr decision point area (levels above) to help facilitate this, and the way this will be proved correct, is if we see a push above the 4hr D/S flip area at 0.93208-0.93417 this week sometime.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• The P.A confirmation buy order (Red line) set just above the decision point level (0.92566-0.92736) at 0.92775 is now active, we want to see the buyers positively close price above the 4hr D/S flip area above at 0.93208-0.93417, this will show genuine strength and we will then strongly consider setting a pending buy order awaiting a possible return.

• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current environment.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.92775 (Active-awaiting confirmation) (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

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