ICmarkets
Short

Our take on the Aussie this morning...

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
139 0 3
Although a better than expected US PMI print hit the wire yesterday, this was clearly not enough to shake the Aussie bulls! Price continued to rally and is now, at the time of writing, seen trading just ahead of two H4 Quasimodo resistances at 0.7698/0.7695 as well as the 0.77 handle. The important thing to consider here, however, is that these levels sit just ahead of a daily supply zone at 0.7765-0.7714, which happens to merge with a trendline resistance taken from the high 0.7835.

In addition to the above, weekly action is also seen trading around a weekly trendline resistance extended from the high 0.8295. What we’re hoping for here is another fakeout (whipsaw) to be seen. With gold             price looking as though it wants to drive lower to connect with a daily support at 1301.5, we feel a short from the above said H4 Quasimodo resistances is valid.

Our suggestions: A fakeout, nevertheless, is likely to be seen though our H4 sell zone (0.77/0.7695) due to psychological handles generally being prone to fakeouts, and also because the commodity currency will likely want to touch gloves with the underside of the daily supply sitting 14 pips above 0.77. Therefore, we feel it best to at least wait for a H4 bearish candle to take shape around the H4 zone, before considering a short here. As far as targets go, we only have one in mind for now and that is the 0.76 handle, which, as you can probably see, is also a weekly support level (0.7604).

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.77/0.7695 - H4 bearish close required (Stop loss: beyond the trigger candle).
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