Support levels in Aud/Usd defined by Fibonacci Expansion targets

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
I am long Aud/Usd             and here is why:

Weekly/daily Fibonacci Expansion level/target 61.8% expansion lies just below 0.75 (Fib Expansion 1)
Daily Fibonacci Expansion level 100% expansion is just below that at 0.746 (Fib Expansion 2)

Current price action is moving down fast - long daily bearish bar down,
so I expect price to move lower towards Fib Expansion 2 level of 100% before a move back up

But because of the possibility of rash price action all around the markets due to Eur/Greece fundamentals
I would not be surprised if the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion 1 level just below 0.75 stops price action down

Also, if market can hold above 0.75 for a single day - we have the RBA interest decision coming up Tuesday morning             ;
all major banks concur that the interest rate will be left on hold - this is bullish Aud too

My plan is therefore two-fold:

1. Long Aud/Usd             at market open is price is just above 0.75 -- where it is now;
so: Long @ 0.75 - 0.752 area, SL below 0.7494 - so: SL 0.7488,
and TP just below the broken 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion level Fibonacci Expansion 2, so: TP 0.7560

2. If Fibonacci Expansion level 1 - 61.8% - is broken to the downside, then:
Long Aud/Usd             just above Fibonacci Level 100% expansion @ 0.7460, so: Long @ 0.7465 - 0.7475 area,
SL below 0.7460 - so SL 0.7455, and TP1 just below the now broken 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion level 1,
so: TP1 = half of my position: just below 0.7494, so: TP1: 0.7488, the rest of my position set to breakeven after this:
so SL2: enter level long 0.7465-0.7475 level, TP2 is the same as trade above (1.), so: TP2: 0.7560

To summarize (if you like it easy this will work too):

Aud/Usd             long trades: 1. Buy 0.7510 -- SL 0.7488 --- TP 0.7560
2. Buy 0.7470 -- SL 0.7455 -- TP1 0.7488, TP2 0.7560
Long @ 0.7478 -- SL 0.7455 -- TP1 0.7488 TP2: 0.7560
+1 Reply
AdamFx42 AdamFx42
First TP1 hit -- now second half TP2 @ 0.7560 -- SL = 0.7455
+1 Reply
good ideas
Dangerous to catch a falling knife
AdamFx42 lenboy
This is what I like to do though :-)
But anyway - I am just scalping now - there is little risk here - chances are conditions for opening will not be met at all
My longer term target is also on this chart -- the 61.8% monthly Fibonacci Retracement level
around 0.7944 - I need downward action to stop for that,
it would be great if that does happen at these levels, because I am holding at least one position for 0.79
+1 Reply
AdamFx42 AdamFx42
I agree with you that it is a dangerous business though, and you need to have a longer term plan if you try this.
Mine here is this:
if the pair does remain bearish here, I will double my longs above 0.72 -- which is 76.4% Monthly Fibonacci retracement level
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