I agree with you. I don't exclude the continuation of the downward trend as well. That's why I keep this position tiny and of course not without a stop. But I want to be in the number if the trend begins to change. Thus I risk a bit loss which won't hurt me.
One big advantage of jumping the gun is you get big profit if you are right and minimize your losses
since i do not day trade, once price at at the edge of channel, i will average my long/short and hold them until i am wrong