FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
146 21 3
Never catch a falling knife - unless it reached the bottom. It looks like if we see the latter case here now.

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jangseohee
2 years ago
I am averaging the longs :-)
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I see you are using a modified version of Hull MA, is this indicator available in the library ?
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motleifaul Realisto_FX
2 years ago
Unfortunately not. It was developed by Chris Moody in January. Perhaps you can still find it in his January postings.
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
I still maintain a bearish bias, but I agree this correction may continue almost up to 0.825.
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jangseohee ForceFollower
2 years ago
which is decent enough profit :-)
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motleifaul ForceFollower
2 years ago
I agree with you. I don't exclude the continuation of the downward trend as well. That's why I keep this position tiny and of course not without a stop. But I want to be in the number if the trend begins to change. Thus I risk a bit loss which won't hurt me.
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motleifaul ForceFollower
2 years ago
You were right this time. I've been stopped out.
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jangseohee motleifaul
2 years ago
One big advantage of jumping the gun is you get big profit if you are right and minimize your losses
since i do not day trade, once price at at the edge of channel, i will average my long/short and hold them until i am wrong
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motleifaul jangseohee
2 years ago
It is a good strategy as well, I think. Thus you combine a trend following srtrategy with a contrarian one.
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jangseohee motleifaul
2 years ago
sort of my contrarian only comes into play after prolong uptrend or downtrend
or my emotional indicator sets in
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jangseohee motleifaul
2 years ago
example:
AUDNZD, my best and loyal friend TREND CHANNEL
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ForceFollower motleifaul
2 years ago
Thanks. :-) Anyway, right or wrong, it's all about following a strategy that proves to be profitable at the end of each month...
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motleifaul ForceFollower
2 years ago
I ain't even profitable at the end of each month. I have deep drowdowns every year followed by highly profitable month, so that at the end of the year there is a good remainder. :-) This is the main thing I have to work on - to make the portfolio less vulnerable. On the other hand I realized that, if I lower the vulnerability, the final profitability will be lower as well. It is just less convenient to sit on heavy losses and not to lose the convinction of the own methode. But if a method proved to be right for some years it becomes easier to stand the drought.
+1 Reply
ForceFollower motleifaul
2 years ago
So true, motleifaul. I think you are harsh on yourself, whereas you are not to blame, but rather - if I may suggest - possibly your strategy. Ask yourself these questions, if you don't mind:
1) Do you have 10-15 written rules you follow every trading day? (one page would do - just to read every morning)
2) When you lose, do you revise your strategy, to see if:
a) you made a mistake or
b) perhaps there's something you can improve in your strategy?

If I get you right, I also happen to place HST (huge-size trades) now and then, but I've put them into some rules, so they don't ruin me, when I'm wrong. :-) You can't fight yourself, your true nature - the best you can do, I believe, is set up the rules that fit you, ie., rules that give you the trading room you need, but at the same time introduce some highly beneficial limitations.

I wish you that 2015 is your breakthrough year!
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jangseohee motleifaul
2 years ago
for that matter, i had initial confirmed loses of 500 bucks.. and keep the position for two months just putting the faith totally in this channel, though i will be out at 1.13500 and above
have faith in your own methodology
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jangseohee motleifaul
2 years ago
do not be pressurized by how well or how badly other traders do :-)
develop your own protocol, this is a PROCESS which you'd learn the most :-)
+1 Reply
motleifaul jangseohee
2 years ago
You are completely right. My strategy is very complex. And it is more constant in some parts and changing in others, It contains rules for the size of the position for each currency pair and stocks and options, for the stopps and weaker rules for profit taking. Meanwhile it is as complex that I can't describe it in a nutshell any longer, even not write it down unless I don't write a book(and even then it would be uncomplete as I have to analyze each situation individually). And after some deals when I feel some experience I will change the methodology. I am even running some different methods at the same time. In 2013 I had doubled my capital involved. 2014 I didn't calculate yet but it is an approximate plus of 30 %. The deepest drawdown was minus 5 %. 2013 it was minus 24 %! It is a good developement. But you can see that 2013 the drawdown was deeper and the end-of-year profit was higher.
I read reports of traders who claim to have made 1000 % or so. And, of course, I would like to know what they make better than I. Neverheless, I am not unsatisfied and to develope and steadily improve the own methodology makes the fun of our business. I will never adapt another's methodology. I have to feel comfortable with my own, otherwise I wouldn't trust it and couldn't maintain the rules.
+2 Reply
jangseohee motleifaul
2 years ago
even 10000% profit should not really bother you :-)
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ForceFollower motleifaul
2 years ago
Thanks for your results' history. You seem to be doing very well. Your drawdowns are OK., in my opinion. As you're getting better and your method improves, you will be fine in 2015, I'm sure.
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motleifaul ForceFollower
2 years ago
Tank you, friend. Good luck for you in the months ahead to you as well. And speak to you again soon, I hope.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
we need a higher low to confirm
snapshot
+1 Reply
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