Point to Establish Short Exposure: Close below last week's low of 0.7234
Invalidation Level: Channel Resistance & July 21 High of 0.7450
remain under pressure and many economies directly related to Australian's economic health continue to show depreciation. Fundamentally, the US Dollar is also seeing a strong round of economic announcements most notably in the jobs market. Ironically, or maybe on purpose, the mentioned the employment market needs to show more health before a hike is likely.
This week we have both the RBA & US Non-Farm Payroll. Each will provide a good deal of to AUDUSD however, the Reserve Bank of Australia Announcement is likely to keep rates on hold though the RBA will likely say they would like to see a weaker AUD. Furthermore, the NFP announcement on Friday is expected to affirm the Fed's desire for an increasingly healthy economy. As we get closer to a rate hike, we could see AUDUSD continue to move lower in line with the technicals and fundamentals.
AUD/USD -- Medium-term Support at 0.7250 is likely to give way before the next leg lower.
July closed at lowest since April 2009
3rd resistance: 0.7450 July 21 high
2nd resistance: 0.7417 July 23 high
1st resistance: 0.7367/76 July 31 high, 21-DMA
1st support: 0.7233 April 30 2009 low
2nd support: 0.7206 76.4% Fibo of 2008-2011 rally
3rd support: 0.7171 S2
AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 2.60 as 72% of traders are long. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the AUDUSD may continue lower.