EverythingForex

Update: AUDUSD: Where Is It Headed? Is It Still Lower?

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
923 1 21
This was posted to my website yesterday. I am re-posting it here as some have asked me about this pair and what it is now doing based on my longer term outlook on it. To see the original post: go here: http://goo.gl/I6NbEw

In my last post on this pair, I suggested that there wad 2 scenarios that I saw could be developing. One of them was the Scenario #1: A Simple 5-Wave             Pattern going south. With the recent moves in the market, that scenario is becoming more clear. I’ll explain why I am now seeing this unfold and how you can take advantage of this.

First, to go back to a larger time frame, the daily TF, notice that the wave 2 (blue) of the wave (5) down trend was a zigzag . According to the Theory of Alternation, that means that wave 4 should be a flat correction of some kind. Here’s the DAILY chart from my last post:

snapshot

So come back to the 4HR TF, what I am counting here in this scenario is that wave 4 was a simple flat as it should be according to the Theory of Alternation. That being the case, then the move down from the completion of the wave 4 was a wave (I) of 5 of (5). Then it follows that the move back up should be a wave (II) of 5 of (5). Judging from it’s very messy and complicated character, it certainly “fits” the definition of a corrective wave. Now the question is: is it done? It is now my opinion that “NO”, it is not! Or it could be….

The recent stronger than expected move back up to again retest the triple top gives a clue that it is about to break over that resistance and head higher in a wave (II) continuation to retest the wave (I) high. A fourth retest of that resistance more than likely will break it. Remember that wave 2’s can retrace 100% of wave 1’s. I would expect that at minimum, it should reach the .786 retrace but more likely the .886 though.

There is also a .886 Gartley that would be considered completed at the .786 but more than likely will reach the .886.

Here is the 4HR TF. Remember that still-waiting-to-be-filled POTENTIAL Bat? Well, it could get filled soon!

snapshot

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sounds fairly inconclusive?
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