Update: AUDUSD: Where Is It Headed? Is It Still Lower?

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
923 1 21
This was posted to my website yesterday. I am re-posting it here as some have asked me about this pair and what it is now doing based on my longer term outlook on it. To see the original post: go here: http://goo.gl/I6NbEw

In my last post on this pair, I suggested that there wad 2 scenarios that I saw could be developing. One of them was the Scenario #1: A Simple 5-Wave             Pattern going south. With the recent moves in the market, that scenario is becoming more clear. I’ll explain why I am now seeing this unfold and how you can take advantage of this.

First, to go back to a larger time frame, the daily TF, notice that the wave 2 (blue) of the wave (5) down trend was a zigzag . According to the Theory of Alternation, that means that wave 4 should be a flat correction of some kind. Here’s the DAILY chart from my last post:

So come back to the 4HR TF, what I am counting here in this scenario is that wave 4 was a simple flat as it should be according to the Theory of Alternation. That being the case, then the move down from the completion of the wave 4 was a wave (I) of 5 of (5). Then it follows that the move back up should be a wave (II) of 5 of (5). Judging from it’s very messy and complicated character, it certainly “fits” the definition of a corrective wave. Now the question is: is it done? It is now my opinion that “NO”, it is not! Or it could be….

The recent stronger than expected move back up to again retest the triple top gives a clue that it is about to break over that resistance and head higher in a wave (II) continuation to retest the wave (I) high. A fourth retest of that resistance more than likely will break it. Remember that wave 2’s can retrace 100% of wave 1’s. I would expect that at minimum, it should reach the .786 retrace but more likely the .886 though.

There is also a .886 Gartley that would be considered completed at the .786 but more than likely will reach the .886.

Here is the 4HR TF. Remember that still-waiting-to-be-filled POTENTIAL Bat? Well, it could get filled soon!

Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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sounds fairly inconclusive?
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