Correction of AUD/USD coming up in the next few days
The US economy may not be growing as fast as analysts have predicted but the propped up AUD is on shaky ground. Here are the risk variables:
1. Euro economy and risk of deflation.
2. Eastern Europe geopolitics.
3. Chinese slowdown. Stimulus may not work.
4. Australian slowdown. High interest rates make the AUD attractive for carry trades especially Asian investors taking flight from declining Yuan. Reserve bank may be forced to lower interest rates to reduce foreign fixed interest purchases which have an adverse affect on exports.
5. US economy may increase rate of recovery.
6. Overbought indicators may encourage traders to short.
7. As foreign economies start thinking about increasing rate (US, Japan), AUD becomes less attractive.
We might see the AUD rise to ~0.94 before dropping to about ~0.92 or even ~0.91.
1. Euro economy and risk of deflation.
2. Eastern Europe geopolitics.
3. Chinese slowdown. Stimulus may not work.
4. Australian slowdown. High interest rates make the AUD attractive for carry trades especially Asian investors taking flight from declining Yuan. Reserve bank may be forced to lower interest rates to reduce foreign fixed interest purchases which have an adverse affect on exports.
5. US economy may increase rate of recovery.
6. Overbought indicators may encourage traders to short.
7. As foreign economies start thinking about increasing rate (US, Japan), AUD becomes less attractive.
We might see the AUD rise to ~0.94 before dropping to about ~0.92 or even ~0.91.