maccabean
Short

Correction of AUD/USD coming up in the next few days

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
344 3 0
The US economy may not be growing as fast as analysts have predicted but the propped up AUD is on shaky ground. Here are the risk variables:

1. Euro             economy and risk of deflation.
2. Eastern Europe geopolitics.
3. Chinese slowdown. Stimulus may not work.
4. Australian slowdown. High interest rates make the AUD attractive for carry trades especially Asian investors taking flight from declining Yuan. Reserve bank may be forced to lower interest rates to reduce foreign fixed interest purchases which have an adverse affect on exports.
5. US economy may increase rate of recovery.
6. Overbought indicators may encourage traders to short.
7. As foreign economies start thinking about increasing rate (US, Japan), AUD becomes less attractive.

We might see the AUD rise to ~0.94 before dropping to about ~0.92 or even ~0.91.
8/13
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vaicru maccabean
?
Reply
As I mentioned, we have seen the price rise to about 0.94, if it continues to rise at this rate, there is no way the reserve bank of Australia will allow exports to be squeezed out so easily. The monetary policy minutes of Tuesday will be interesting.
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