Bigger Picture on the weekly frame

Todays Budget release would dictate where the government intend to spend their money for the upcoming one year, if a heavy spending plan is outlined then RBA would have to come out of sidelines sooner than later. Right now , we could be in temporary short , but we are approaching trend line soon , be ready for long term buy.

Comment:

I have reviewed the whole budget release, it is theoretically good for Australian dollar and it might help it to retake the .74000 level.

But let me warn you on something, the report mentioned about the risk of Australia loosing its AAA rating if medium term budget deficits are not recovered. Hence the near future the budget surplus/deficit figure would be closely monitored by rating agencies

May has always been a difficult moth for AUD/USD bulls, just check last 3/4 years may monthly chart, you would see aud lost more than 3% each year

So, i can say you can be bullish, but be very cautious

Comment:

I think we met our short term bullish target as .7400 level is retained and trend-line also tested at .74600. Time to exit the trade as i am expecting USD to strengthen gradually.
Our next target on aud usd would be to confirm the rejection of aud/usd at trendline and head back on the low .73000 levels